The BJP has succeeded in retaining its bastions in coastal Karnataka — Uttara Kannada, Dakshina Kannada and Udupi-Chickmagalur Lok Sabha constituencies — by replacing sitting MPs with new candidates.
While the margins have decreased in all constituencies, a strong organisational network and the Hindutva factor seem to have helped the BJP overcome anti-incumbency sentiment. All three MPs will enter the Lok Sabha for the first time.
The Congress seems to have failed to galvanise its grassroots volunteers and strengthen organisational networks in these segments. Even the guarantee schemes do not seem to have had a great bearing on the elections.
While Dakshina Kannada and Udupi-Chickmagalur constituencies faced a tide of anti-incumbency sentiment, Uttara Kannada MP Anant Kumar Hegde’s statement about the possibility of changing the Constitution if the BJP got 400 plus seats also had a bearing on the election narrative and might have influenced the party to deny him candidature.
In Dakshina Kannada, which saw a contest between two political greenhorns, BJP’s Brijesh Chowta defeated Congress’ Padmaraj R Poojary. Brijesh’s move to placate sulking BJP and RSS workers, his stress on the Hindutva factor and development and efforts of local leaders to bring various factions that had drifted away from the BJP together might have helped him win with a comfortable margin of 1,49,208 votes. In 2019, the BJP had won by a margin of 2,74,621.
Taking no chances, particularly after there was visible dissatisfaction over the failure of three-time MP Nalin Kumar Kateel to deliver on his promises, Modi held a roadshow in Mangaluru, seeking votes for Dakshina Kannada and Udupi-Chickmagalur candidates.
In Udupi-Chickmagalur, BJP yielded to the 'Go Back, Shobha' campaign and fielded former minister Kota Srinivas Poojary in the constituency. Poojary won with a margin of 2,59,175 against Congress candidate Jayaprakash Hegde. In 2019, the BJP’s margin stood at 3,49,599 votes.
A combination of multiple factors such as Poojary’s clean image, an emphasis on Hindutva politics, the Modi wave and support from majority communities may have worked for the BJP candidate.
BJP seemed to have fared better than the Congress in strategies to win over Billavas and Bunts, two major communities in Dakshina Kannada and Udupi-Chickmagalur constituencies.
A case in point is Modi garlanding the statue of social reformer Narayana Guru, who is revered by the Billava community in Mangaluru.
While the Congress candidate in Dakshina Kannada belonged to the Billava community, the BJP fielded a person from the Bunts community. In Udupi-Chickmagalur, it was the other way round.
“The decrease in victory margins in the party’s strong belt is a clear sign of public opinion against the BJP. However, the Congress failed to cash in on the sentiment owing to its lack of leaders with a mass appeal, lack of efforts to strengthen the organisation and mainly the notion that they will any way not win these seats,” says Udupi-based political analyst Rajaram Tallur.
The Modi appeal and the Hindutva politics could have been overriding factors in Uttara Kannada, along with the outsider tag of the Congress candidate. Here, BJP’s Vishweshwar Hegde Kageri defeated Congress’ Anjali Nimbalkar by 3,37,428 votes.
In 2019, the BJP’s victory margin was 4,79,649 votes. This time, despite the demand of local leaders to field a young leader, the party fielded the six-time MLA and former state minister.
Here, the people have expressed a demarcated choice for Lok Sabha as opposed to the Assembly polls.
In the Uttara Kannada constituency, the Congress had won five out of eight Assembly segments in last year’s elections.
“The chances were even before Modi held a rally in Sirsi, which changed the trajectory for the BJP candidate completely. Despite being a six-time MLA, Kageri sought votes in Modi’s name and not citing his work,” says Yellapur-based political analyst Sriranga Katti.