Tripura is headed for elections to its Assembly on February 16 and the state is likely to face a triangular contest with the BJP-IPFT, CPI(M)-Congress and the first-time contestants Tipra Motha, whose demand for a separate state has left all parties' eyebrows raised.
The BJP, not leaving anything to chance, has decided to contest 55 seats, leaving five seats for alliance partner Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT), which has ceded much ground to Tipra Motha in tribal areas after the newly formed outfit's demand for Greater Tipraland.
In the 2018 Assembly polls, in which the BJP-IPFT combine ended the 25-year-long rule of the Left Front, the saffron party had bagged 36 seats, including 10 ST reserved constituencies, while its alliance partner had bagged eight seats. In the 2013, polls, both the BJP and the IPFT won 0 seats.
Meanwhile, the CPI(M) saw a a 67 per cent decline in the number of seats it won, from 49 in 2013 to 16 in 2018. The Congress went from 10 seats in 2013 to zero in the last Assembly elections.
Let's take a look at how the parties performed in the 2018 polls compared to the 2013 elections.
In terms of sheer number of votes, the BJP saw nearly a 30-time rise in votes in 2018 compared to 2013. The CPI(M)'s votes bank declined by 6 per cent in the same time period while the Congress's decimated by 94 per cent from 2013.
How 'Greater Tipraland' will stir the pot
Experts believe that Tipra Motha's entry into the election battle will dent the IPFT-BJP's chances. The promise of a Tipraland or separate state for Tripuris had been a poll plank for the IPFT, which got diluted after the party joined hands with the BJP to form the government.
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As DH's Sumir Karmakar explains, "the 'Narendra Modi wave' and the promise of development helped BJP defeat the leftists in the constituencies in the plains with non-tribal majority, while the IPFT won eight constituencies in the hills, where tribal voters are the deciding factors. The IPFT, however, started losing its grounds since then, mainly due to its ally BJP's alleged failure to fulfill the promises made for the welfare of the tribal community."
The IPFT, BJP and other parties lost the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council elections in March 2021 to Tipra Motha, which is also being seen as a shift of allegiance in tribal votes.