Even as political aficionados train their eyes to the northeast where three states go to polls this month, the battle for Tripura—a three-pronged fight between the BJP, the Left-Congress alliance and the newly formed Tipra Motha—has garnered a lot of attention.
Feelers indicate that even as the party will not form the government, the number of seats they win could decide the fate for the government to come.
Led by 'Bubagra' Pradyot Manikya Deb Barma, son of the former king of Tripura, Tipra Motha has slowly been gaining ground in the run up to the Assembly elections. Passively involved in politics through protests and movements to fight for the rights of the indigneous people of Tripura, the erstwhile royal is one whose moves experts are closely watching out for.
With Congress till 2019, Deb Barma formed Tipra Motha in 2021. The party won the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) polls in the same year, bagging 18 of 30 seats in the fray.
With this, the royal scion gained considerable support from the tribals and has announced that the Tipra Motha will fight the polls on its own and will not be part of any pre- or post-poll alliance unless given assurance in writing on the 'Greater Tipraland' issue. Motha aims to win the 20 tribal-dominated seats that hold the key to power in the northeastern state that has a 60-member Assembly.
In contrast, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has an alliance with the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) is contesting on its own with 55 seats, leaving IPFT with just 5 seats. Also fighting in this polls is the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress, which has put up candidates in 28 out of 60 Assembly constituencies.
But for all the support Deb Barma has from the instrumental tribal belt of Tripura, the former royal is not contesting the elections himself but the leader is definitely the magnanimous driving force behind the party, or 'movement' as he prefers to call the Tipra Motha, which is adamant on its demand for a separate 'Greater Tipraland.'
In an interview to DH, Deb Barma said that for him, it's always people's rights that come first, "It is not about me. I never wanted to be the chief minister or a minister. I want to give something to my people. Three of our top leaders are not contesting. We want to give a message to the people that it is not about us, it is about the people. I want to give rights to the people."
If Tipra Motha bags sufficient seats, cutting from the BJP-IPFT seat count, the saffron party and its ally may have to scramble for majority. At present, BJP-IPFT combine have 43 seats in the Assembly.
Experts believe that tribals may seek Tipra Motha as an alternative after the IPFT failed to deliver on its earlier Tipraland promises.
In a bid to woo tribal voters, BJP, in its manifesto, promised a slew of projects including annual financial assistance of Rs 5,000 to the tribals living under the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC), a university in the name of Maharaja Bir Bikram Manikya, the last king of the Tripura Princely tribal state and inclusion of Kokborok language (spoken by the tribals) in CBSE and ICSE schools, among others.
"Tipraland has become a non-issue after our manifesto. It has addressed almost all the issues, except the division of Tripura," Deputy CM and BJP's tribal face, Jishnu Deb Barma told DH in an interview minutes after BJP Chief Nadda released the manifesto.
Motha Chief Pradyot Deb Barma, Tripura's Royal scion, however, is firm on his demand for bifurcation of tribal-dominated areas and says the promises made in BJP's manifesto were copied from his party. "We will fight till our last breath for Tipraland," Pradyot said, on Thursday. Jishnu Deb Barma is Pradyot's uncle.
In the 60-member Assembly, 20 seats are reserved for tribal areas and the BJP had won a total of 35 seats to form a government in 2018, with half of them coming from the tribal region.
This time around, the BJP is also focussing more on the non-tribal Bengali voters, as they expect Motha to win in the TTAADC areas.
Also Read | Tripura: BJP manifesto promises greater autonomy for tribal council, financial assistance, meal at Rs 5
The Congress and CPI(M) alliance could also potentially divide votes in the face of changed political scenario between the parties.
Leaders of the two parties told DH that even as the Tipra Motha did not agree to an alliance on the "Greater Tipraland" issue, they are in touch with its leader Pradyot Deb Barma to "tactfully help" each other during the polling on February 16.
The Left Front and the Congress have also promised to reintroduce the old pension scheme in an attempt to woo the 1.88 lakh state government employees in Tripura.
Tipra Motha spokesperson Anthony Deb Barma had said in an interview that the party will emerge as the 'kingmaker', bagging at least 25-26 seats.
“Since the stage is set for a triangular contest in almost all the assembly seats, Tipra Motha will be the gainer in the polls. We will not only win the tribal-dominated seats but also some non-tribal constituencies,” he had said.
Also Read | BJP's tribal outreach in Tripura
Deb Barma has time and again reiterated that his demand for a separate 'Greater Tipraland' is the first and foremost thing the party is aiming for. His unwavering demand has united the tribals, thereby making the party a strong contender for 20 tribal seats.
Tipra Motha is contesting 42 of the 60 seats in the state and even though the 'Bubarga' may not be contesting, his party and him, seem to be well placed to play 'kingmakers'. What is more interesting, however, is how the the parties will deal with the demand for separate statehood if the Tipra Motha is in the bargaining position.
(With inputs from Sumir Karmakar, agencies)