Shiv Sena, the right-wing party founded by the late Bal Thackeray, has been an integral part of Maharashtra politics, and its recent split into two factions has thrown the state into a turmoil.
The party’s split into two factions—one helmed by former Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray and the other by current one, Eknath Shinde—happened when Shinde claimed to be the “real follower” of Thackeray senior’s path of “Hindutva”. Shinde accused Uddhav of diluting Balasaheb’s Hindutva ideology by aligning with the Indian National Congress and the NCP.
Now, the two factions will have it out again by claiming to be the “real Shiv Sena” and will each have the annual “Dussehra melava”, a tradition started by the founder himself, to address the masses on Vijayadashami.
However, Shinde is not the first one to claim to be the successor of Bal Keshav Thackeray’s “true legacy”. Balasaheb’s nephew Raj Thackeray took the first step out of the Shiv Sena when he parted ways with the party in 2006 to form Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS)—he also claimed to have followed the elderly Thackeray’s path of Hindutva.
Most recently, Bharatiya Janata Party’s Devendra Fadnavis, at a public gathering, appealed to voters “in the name of the Sena founder” to support the Shide-Fadnavis government in the upcoming BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections.
All these prove one indisputable fact: Bal Thackeray, who passed away nearly a decade ago, is still relevant in Maharashtra politics. And all right-wing parties have been trying to capitalise on his popularity, and use his “Hindutva” and “Marathi maanus” cards, to consolidate votes.
Yet, none of them have been successful in claiming Bal Thackeray to be exclusively theirs.
The heir apparent, Uddhav Thackeray
Being the son of the Sena founder, Uddhav Thackeray’s politics has always revolved around Bal Thackery, Hindutva and Marathi maanus. This strategy has helped him consolidate 16 to 20 per cent—considered to be “Sena loyalists”—of the total votes in the last few Vidhan Sabha elections.
Under Uddhav’s leadership, the party had 19.5 per cent of total votes cast in 2014, and 16.6 per cent in 2019—showing that Uddhav has been successful in maintaining the voter base created by Balasaheb—as election data on India Votes shows that when Balasaheb was active in politics, Shiv Sena’s share in the cast votes were 16.4, 17.3 and 20 per cent in 1995, 1999 and 2004, respectively.
But, Uddhav has been unsuccessful in increasing the numbers, even though he is Shiv Sena president.
Some political analysts believe that the party’s loyal voter base may decrease in the coming state elections, as many were disgruntled with Uddhav’s decision to ally with the Congress and NCP in 2019 to form the government.
The current vertical split in the party may also distribute votes.
But, they also believe Mumbai voters will back Uddhav in the coming BMC election.
Marathi newspaper Sakal’s Kolhapur edition editor Nikhil Panditrao explains: “People vote in state and local body elections with different mindsets. Going with Sharad Pawar & the Congress in 2019 may backfire on Uddhav in the Assembly elections to some extent. However, there are high chances of Mumbai’s people backing Uddhav in the BMC elections as local body elections are generally fought on hyper-local issues. According to me, Mumbaikars’ strong bond with Bal Thackeray will benefit Uddhav more than Shinde.”
“In spite of being Bal Thackeray’s successor, Uddhav was unsuccessful in avoiding the split. But he will keep using Thackeray’s name to play a victim card in the coming elections,” Panditrao says.
Raj, the original claimant of Balasaheb’s ideology
Despite leaving the Shiv Sena to form his own political outfit, Raj Thackeray has always portrayed himself as the true successor of Bal Thackeray’s ideology.
The MNS is one of the biggest political rivals of the Sena, as both target the same set of voters in the state. Still, Raj has always tried to keep the Sena and the Sena chief separate in his politics to gain the support of the latter's followers.
“My conflict is not with my god (Bal Thackeray), it is with cunning people surrounding him,” Raj had once said before splitting from the Shiv Sena.
However, his rousing speeches and moving words have not been enough to charm the Shiv Sena voter base, which is visible in MNS’s performance in the successive Vidhan Sabha elections.
Although the MNS had won 13 seats in the 2009 Assembly elections, it could only grab one seat in both the 2014 and 2019 elections.
But will Shinde’s split from Shiv Sena be advantageous to Raj?
Shivaji Yadav, senior journalist with Sakal Media Group, said: “I believe, people will either go with the Sena or the Shinde faction in the elections. There are two main reasons for it. Firstly, many believed that the Shiv Sena would collapse after Thackeray’s death. But that was not the case as Uddhav held the party together and emerged as a mature politician over the years. Uddhav’s political success became one of the biggest reasons for Raj’s failure. Shiv Sainiks accepted Uddhav’s leadership, who otherwise would have cast their vote to the MNS.”
Yadav also commented on MNS’s organisational failure. “The MNS is like a one-man army. Raj is the sole face of his party. He did not build a team of leaders who would assist him to grow the party,” the senior journalist explained. “Even if someone from Kolhapur wants to vote for the MNS, there is no face for the party here…. Raj has been unsuccessful in building a structured party like Bal Thackeray.”
The challenger and new ‘Hindutva’ flag-bearer, Eknath Shinde
Before becoming the current chief minister, Shinde left Uddhav and joined hands with the BJP—but didn’t leave Shiv Sena. He changed the dynamics of Maharashtra politics as he justified the “rebellion” by calling the Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition—of Shiv Sena, Congress and NCP—to be an “unnatural alliance” which didn’t follow Balasaheb’s “Hindutva” ideology.
Shinde began his narrative by calling himself the “real” follower of Balasaheb’s ideology. He walked away with 40 sitting Shiv Sena MLAs and 12 sitting MPs.
And thus began the malign campaign. Udhhav’s faction has been portraying Shinde as a villain and betrayer who will stand with the BJP for money and personal interests. Slogans like “50 khoke, ekdum ok” and “Khoke Sarkar” have been used to present Shinde and the rebelling MLAs and MPs.
So, will this smear campaign benefit Uddhav or will it backfire to give Shinde people’s support?
Pudhari newspaper’s political analyst Bhimashankar Waghmare says: “Even though Shinde has the majority of MLAs and MPs and he might even get the hold of registered Shiv Sena party, he may not get the expected support from Shiv Sainiks. I have spoken to many people who have no direct connection with politics, the majority of them stand by Uddhav as they believe Shinde is a gaddar (traitor) who split Bal Thackeray’s party. It is highly possible that people with a similar mindset will vote for Uddhav, irrespective of party name or symbol in the future.”
On the other hand, Waghmare explains, people believe the MLAs and MPs are with Shinde as they fear the investigation agencies. Many elected representatives might have even aligned with Shinde as a precautionary measure—because being with him is equivalent to being with the BJP. MLA Pratap Sarnaik and MP Bhavana Gawali, who are on the investigation agencies’ radar are with Shinde.
This makes people believe that elected representatives are on the other side for their own benefit and not for Hindutva.
“Bal Thackeray’s name might help Shinde gather an audience for his speeches like Raj Thackeray, but he might not be able to persuade them to vote for him. I believe the BJP will use Shinde for the BMC election campaigning and will stay together till the next State assembly elections. But this alliance might not continue later,” Waghmare speculates.
No one knows if BJP is friend or foe
With the help of Shinde and rebelling Shiv Sena MLAs, the BJP finally gained power in the state, and now has set its eyes on the BMC elections. Yet, it is Bal Thackeray’s name that the BJP invokes as a call to action.
Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, appealed to Mumbaikars in a recent speech: “The true Shiv Sena and BJP alliance under the leadership of CM Shinde, which is based on the ideas of Hinduhruday Samrat Balasaheb Thackeray, will not sit quietly without installing their saffron flag on the municipal corporation in this election.”
He has been constantly asserting that the Shinde faction is the real Shiv Sena, who is propagating Bal Thackeray’s ideology.
Waghmare says: “The BJP knows its power and its limits. Even after using all its machinery and fighting alone in the 2017 BMC elections, the party could not transcend Shiv Sena’s seats. BJP won 82 seats while Sena bagged 84 seats last time.”
"I believe Fadnavis is playing smart politics this time by using both Modi and Thackeray to woo the voters. He knows that Modi’s popularity will help the party retain 82 seats. Strategic use of Bal Thackeray’s name can help BJP add a few more seats and surpass the Shiv Sena. By supporting Shinde, the party is trying to reduce the importance of friend-turned-enemy Uddhav Thackeray in both Mumbai and state politics. This plan can even backfire as many people consider BJP equally responsible for the split in the Shiv Sena,” Waghmare explains.