India is not on target for more than 50 per cent of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal indicators seven years before the 2030 deadline, according to a new study that says many districts will never meet the SDG targets even well after 2030.
The eight critical off-target indicators are access to basic services, poverty, stunting and wasting of children, anaemia, child marriage, partner violence, tobacco use, and modern contraceptive use. For these indicators, more than 75 per cent of the districts are off-target.
"India is not on target for 19 of the 33 SDGs indicators. Because of a worsening trend observed between 2016 and 2021, and assuming no course correction occurs, many districts will never meet the targets on the SDGs even well after 2030," says the study conducted by an international team and led by researchers from Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health.
The study published in the Lancet provides the first systematic midline assessment of the progress that 707 Indian districts (out of 763) have made to achieve the SDGs related to health and social determinants of health.
However, not everything is bad news on the SDG front. The country is on target to meet 13 of the 33 indicators. They are Internet use, bank account for women, full vaccination, improved sanitation, reduction in multi-dimensional poverty, birth registration, skilled birth attendants, electricity access, tobacco use reduction among women, lowering of child marriage among less than 15-year-old girls, under-five mortality, teenage sexual violence and neonatal mortality.
"We cannot issue a final report card at this time. For indicators that are off-target, there is plenty of time to make them on-target. I feel a lot of what the Union government did during the Covid period through its relief programmes made a huge difference to the lives of people. The question is will that be sustained going forward and if so in what form," lead author S V Subramanian told DH.
Among the 19 off-target indicators, the conditions have worsened for three related to anaemia because of an increase in the prevalence of anaemia among pregnant and non-pregnant women. The data makes it clear that India would never be able to meet the SDG targets related to anaemia.
For the rest, the observed rate of change between 2016 and 2021, though in desirable directions, are insufficient to meet the target by 2030.
Assuming the observed rate of change seen between 2021 and 2016, India will meet its targets on improved water (2031), hand washing facility (2033), clean fuel for cooking (2035), lowering of teenage pregnancy among the 15- to 19-year-olds (2039), and partner sexual violence (2040) in the next decade. Another 11 off-target indicators will be met between 2041 and 2162, including access to basic services in 2047 and partner violence (physical or sexual) in 2090.
"If India is serious about reaching the SDGs, districts need to be supported through a nimble process where active feedback based on data is provided to the district administration so that course corrections can take place. An unwavering and strong political will combined with a nimble and responsive administrative structure will be required," Subramanian said.