The Modi government confounded its critics by departing from past practice and shunning overt populism in the Budget ahead of key state elections. Instead, it unveiled an intriguing long-term focus that seems designed to convey its confidence that it is going to be around for a long time.
The Budget, panned for having nothing for the ‘Aam Aadmi’ so critical to electoral fortunes, didn’t even have any doles for farmers despite the fact that the two most important poll-going states are agrarian, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab.
In fact, a word cloud of FM Nirmala Sitharaman’s speech showed that words like ‘capital’, ‘infrastructure’ and ‘investment’ figured much more than ‘youth’, ‘women’, ‘poor’ and ‘farmers’, indicating a business-oriented budget rather than one focused on the traditional areas of social outreach. She used the word ‘capital’ 23 times in her speech, while ‘infrastructure’ and ‘investment’ figured 18 times.
This was in sharp contrast to last year, where sops for poll-going states were spelt out clearly.
In addition to the business jargon, though, there was the introduction of ‘Amrit Kaal’, an auspicious period running up to 2047, the centenary of India’s independence.
This longer-term focus at the cost of immediate election messaging is relatively new to the ruling BJP, a party perennially in election mode and one accused of turning every State occasion into a chance to grub for votes.
The long-term Amrit Kaal blueprint is futuristic and inclusive, directly benefiting youth, women, farmers, the Scheduled Castes and the Scheduled Tribes, the government feels.
But it cut little ice with former finance minister P Chidambaram: “I was astonished that the Finance Minister was outlining a plan for the next 25 years, which she called the Amrit Kaal. The government seems to believe that the present does not need any attention and people living in the present can be asked to wait patiently until the Amrit Kaal dawns,” he said.
At the very least, the messaging indicates that Modi dispensation is willing to take a risk for long term growth, gambling on a stimulus-driven economic recovery that will stand it in good stead for the 2024 general elections.
Expectations were that the Budget would reach out to farming communities to douse their anger, which could otherwise cost the BJP dearly in Western UP and Punjab. There was also expectation that the government may also announce some fancy schemes for youths and women, the two sections that have steadfastly backed Modi.
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