In the prelude to the 1989 general elections, Congress-sponsored billboards startled pedestrians with a query: How many prime ministers will a country have? The nation went berserk with the Bofors controversy, with V P Singh's Janata Dal spearheading the anti-Congress front and an ebullient Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) cobbling in tandem to defeat the Rajiv Gandhi regime. More than three decades later, the wheel has come full circle. Only the crusaders have changed. Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) severed ties with the NDA, with the Bihar Chief Minister donning the turncoat's mantle again and cosying up to Lalu Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), all giving a fillip to the index of Opposition unity. Instead of a shot in the arm for an anti-BJP front in the offing, this break-up may have been a blessing in disguise. It has actually strengthened the BJP-led NDA regime with a seeming coalition of regional satraps having bloated further.
If recent surveys on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity are anything to go by, the BJP is unequivocally way ahead of the rudderless opposition coalition, with the Congress sticking to its flagbearer responsibility. Hence Tejashwi Yadav's braggadocio after getting a chance to claim responsibility in Bihar or Nitish Kumar harbouring prime ministerial ambitions and taking one final shot as an aspirant does not have too many takers. Only it gives a shove to the BJP to encash on the simmering discontent among opposition stalwarts and play its disciplinarian card. It also allows the party to consolidate its alliance with steady partners through thick and thin. One must note that Nitish Kumar's desertion is not that of a proverbial rat deserting a sinking ship. It is rather a sojourn for greener pastures and a well-calculated gambit.
Despite all its camaraderie on display intermittently in front of television cameras at every file photo, the alliance resembles a cabal of warring chieftains, each of whom controls their regional fiefdoms. Even if this bandwagon has a downcast Congress leadership in it, the party needs to be the fulcrum for any ouster of the BJP dispensation from power and not just be a constituent in the coalition. As history has shown, any formation without the Congress at its helm may be disastrous and shortlived. And the concept of a non-Congress, non-BJP Third Front has been a mirage for long, as past experiments with the United Front have proven.
A section of society viscerally opposed to the BJP-led NDA dispensation may be crying itself hoarse about the demise of an amorphous notion they call the 'idea of India'. It is as if India was a haven of peace, prosperity and communal amity prior to 2014, and the narrative goes that it's been a downhill slide, with darkness and despair all around. They feel the only people cheering, according to this version of events, are crony capitalists and industrialists, often referred to as this regime's acolytes. The argument is, check for India's worst communal riots on any search engine; the results inevitable throw up dates when the idea of India was in full bloom. These critics opine that a currently disenfranchised elite is lamenting the good old days when they had a free run along corridors of power.
In umpteen primetime debates, we hear the Congress spokespersons categorically asserting that the party has to be the pivot of any cobbling of opposition parties. With a refurbished, aggressive social media strategy, any anti-BJP bandwagon headed by the Congress may obviously draw jitters from regional satraps like Mamata Banerjee, M K Stalin, Arvind Kejriwal, Nitish Kumar, Tejashwi Yadav and their ilk. What is noteworthy is that party supremos like Banerjee, Kejriwal and TRS chief K Chandrasekhar Rao have not been quite gung-ho after Nitish Kumar's mid-term oath-taking and snapping ties with the BJP. With a rainbow opposition still in disarray, throwing up too many claimants for prime ministership, the BJP will only hard sell Narendra Modi for his third stint and woo the electorate with both continuity and change.
What is most palpable with a shrinking of the NDA is that the BJP's numbers have dwindled in the Rajya Sabha. As numbers stack up, the upper house is on a knife's edge, and Nitish Kumar's exit from the NDA does have a bearing on the party's equation. Though BJP still remains the single largest party in the Rajya Sabha and JD(U) leader Harivansh Narayan Singh remains Deputy Chairman, its dependence on the NDA allies like the AIADMK, Biju Janata Dal, and YSR Congress will increase for the passage of so many pending crucial bills. Even with three more nominee MPs and the Tripura seat likely in its tally, the NDA's strength will still be short of the halfway mark, a sure dampener of sorts.
Upholding the coalition dharma has a different symbolism for the BJP. Unlike in Tamil Nadu, where the AIADMK and BJP have a marriage of compulsion, Nitish Kumar has been on cliffhanger mode since the Bihar Assembly polls in 2020, waiting to pull the rug. Even before 2014, the saffron citadel expanded by stitching caste alliances. The BJP may not be in dire need of long-term alliance partners, the party can consolidate its position with time-bound pre-poll alliances to venture into territories that entail a booster. The more fractured the opposition becomes on the road to the 2024 hustings, with multiple aspirants for the coveted top slot often at loggerheads, the easier it will be for the BJP to beat anti-incumbency and stride back to power. Whether this is complete tosh may be tested in the forthcoming assembly polls.
(Chiranjib Haldar is a commentator on politics and society)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.