In UP particularly, Adityanath’s presence in the political discourse is all pervasive. So is the disquiet among his supporters, which this author sensed while travelling in the state, particularly in the Avadh and Purvanchal areas.
Credit: PTI Photo
For an objective and disinterested eye, the 2024 polls are very different from the 2019 polls. In the absence of the wave of nationalism coupled with the Hindutva surge seen five years back — which had blurred the factors such as price rise, unemployment, the caste of the candidate, and factionalism within political parties — the ongoing polls are largely back to the conventional mode where local factors and issues related to the daily life of the voter comes into play.
There can be no better state than Uttar Pradesh to sense this change. UP has been a successful political laboratory for Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) since 2014. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have meticulously supervised the deepening of the BJP’s roots among every section of voters in this complex state.
However, there is the shadow of another leader that looms large over this state which sends the most MPs to the Lok Sabha — Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.
For a section of Hindutva proponents, the firebrand saffron-clad monk comes closest to Modi in terms of popularity. For die-hard Adityanath fans — who also see him as Modi’s natural successor — the UP chief minister stands taller than just about any leader in the BJP.
Adityanath has done close to 200 rallies and public meetings in the last two months. His speeches are marked by Hindutva slogans, where he reminds the people that it was under his rule that UP saw the ‘end of crime and mafia raj’.
He attacks his opponents (mostly the Samajwadi Party) as ‘ram virodhi and sympathiser of terrorists’ further bolstering his Hindutva image. He talks about development, but also says that only a ‘Ram bhakt’ can bring prosperity. The crowd responds as he says ‘Ram bhakt he raj karega dilli ke simhasan par’ (Only a follower of Ram will rule in Delhi).
Baba, as he is known among his supporters, is given credit for ‘improving the law and order’ even though the police is accused of adopting unconstitutional means, especially towards minorities.
In UP particularly, Adityanath’s presence in the political discourse is all pervasive. So is the disquiet among his supporters, which this author sensed while travelling in the state, particularly in the Avadh and Purvanchal areas.
The cat was set among the pigeons by Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal who upon his release on bail claimed Adityanath, like other former BJP chief ministers, would be benched if the BJP were to win a third term at the Centre. This debate, since, has got a life of its own and has added a new variable to the electoral contest. Sensing a chink in the BJP’s armour, the Opposition has sought to play up the rift pitting Adityanath against Shah.
Although many BJP leaders reject this claim as an effort to sow uncertainty among the cadre, the murmurs persist on the ground.
Adityanath’s caste (Rajput) has added another layer to this rumbling. This time the Rajputs are said to be miffed by the BJP, and their drifting away is a worrying sign for the party. The proximity of Raja Bhaiya, a Rajput leader with some influence in eastern UP, to Adityanath is a talking point in the political corridors.
Although Shah met Bhaiya, allegedly to solicit his support, the latter didn’t extend the favour. His men are seen in the rallies of the opposition camp. Since Bhaiya is considered close to Adityanath, this is seen as a ‘low voltage rebellion’ against the Modi-Shah central command.
Interestingly, the Gorakhnath Mutt in Gorakhpur, of which Adityanath is the head, arose as a bulwark against upper-caste Hindu practices. Besides being the CM, Adityanath holds full command of mutt, and is a frequent visitor to the temple. As the sprawling mutt premises got a facelift in the last few years,
Adityanath too strengthened his position in the political roadmap to Delhi.
That said, both Modi and Adityanath understand the hard realities of politics. Modi took Adityanath with him for his nomination and there was a display of camaraderie; similarly, Adityanath too (despite the alleged friction with Delhi) keeps saying in his public meetings, “ek baar phir Modi sarkar” and “Abki baar, 400 paar”.
Irrespective of the outcome of the current elections, the question of Modi’s succession will come up at some point. And how many seats UP contributes to the BJP’s tally in the Lok Sabha appears inevitably linked to Adityanath’s fate in Lucknow.
(Hridayesh Josh is a senior journalist. X: @hridayeshjoshi.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.
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