At 3.04 pm on Thursday, as polling in 222 wards of the Agartala municipal corporation, 13 municipal councils and six nagar (urban) panchayats was still underway, Tripura royal family scion and the head of The Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance (TIPRA), Pradyot Manikya tweeted: "Violence is unprecedented in parts of Agartala. Wonder how elections can be held in this atmosphere."
Something else that happened on Thursday has also been described as "unprecedented". The Supreme Court heard a Trinamool Congress (TMC) petition in the morning even after the polling had started and instructed the Ministry of Home Affairs to urgently send in additional paramilitary forces to ensure free and fair polling. A couple of days ago, responding to a TMC petition seeking to defer elections, the apex court ordered the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s Biplab Deb government in Tripura and the state Election Commission to ensure free and fair polling.
But nothing seemed to have worked on Thursday. Scenes of violence, rigging and proxy voting did the rounds on news channels, web portals and social media platforms throughout the day. Around evening, the CPI(M) and Trinamool Congress, in separate demonstrations, protested the violence despite the presence of central armed forces, who were deployed in advance after the state EC declared all polling booths as "sensitive". The TMC and the CPI(M) have both called for repolling. This violence happened after the BJP won 112 of the total 334 municipal wards uncontested, allegedly due to an atmosphere of political terror.
Irrespective of the outcome of the Tripura municipal elections, the implications will not remain restricted within the state borders.
In West Bengal, the Kolkata municipal corporation election is scheduled in December. On Thursday, the state government told the Calcutta High Court that elections to all other civic bodies - more than 100 - will be completed by April 30. The municipal election season in the state is about to begin. While the TMC's senior leaders are busy highlighting the highhandedness of Tripura BJP, the party's district-level leaders in West Bengal have started issuing threats of repeating "the BJP's Tripura model" on them.
For example, Udayan Guha, who recently made a record of winning an assembly seat in Bengal with the highest margin ever - 1.64 lakh votes - contesting in the Dinhata by-election, said on Wednesday, "Biplab Deb has taught us how to conduct municipal elections. We will implement what we have learnt from him." Dinhata municipality is also scheduled to undergo polling by April 30.
A chain reaction, it would seem, is about to unfold.
BJP's IT cell's national head Amit Malviya's tweet on November 24, blaming the TMC for the Tripura violence, offers some glimpses of how violence connects Bengal and Tripura. "On a day Mamata Banerjee met the PM to discuss violence in Tripura, which her party is responsible for, Kolkata police booked Tripura CM's OSD for (an) unknown reason. On the same day, (a) lawyer...wrote a letter to NHRC highlighting continued political killings (in WB)," tweeted Malviya, who is also a co-mentor of the party's Bengal unit.
West Bengal and Tripura, indeed, make a story of role reversals on several planes. First, the TMC in Tripura has adopted the BJP's Bengal model of high-profile political joinings and a high-decibel campaign to expand its organisational footprint. Second, the BJP in Tripura seems to have taken a few leaves from the TMC's Bengal book in terrorising the opposition with violence.
No party is ready to learn lessons from the past.
In 2018, West Bengal's ruling party TMC's victory in 34 per cent of the state's panchayat election seats without a contest earned them a place more in a hall of shame in the public perception than one of fame. As most of the pre-Lok Sabha election reportage and post-poll analysis in 2019 pointed out, the TMC had to pay a high price in the Lok Sabha elections due to their panchayat poll highhandedness, getting its Lok Sabha tally reduced from 34 to 22. The TMC had to take a series of public outreach measures to reduce the people's anger.
Now, the BJP in Tripura has earned themselves the same badge, having won 34 per cent of the municipal election seats uncontested, topping it up with the poll-day violence. The state Assembly election is due in 2023.
The modus operandi for uncontested victories is similar: stop opposition party nominees from submitting their candidature through threats and violence and force those who manage to submit nominations to withdraw from the contest. The Left parties, which ruled Bengal and Tripura for many years, have been the primary victims of this practice in both states.
CPI(M) leaders highlight that the TMC unleashed violence on them in West Bengal even before the advent of the BJP in the state. The BJP unleashed violence on them in Tripura even before the TMC resumed its Tripura initiatives after the Bengal election victory.
The BJP's role in Tripura is ironic since political violence in West Bengal has been one of the BJP's major political issues in the state - something that they also highlighted nationally to discredit Mamata Banerjee, as she prepared to take a leading role in national opposition politics.
Whether the BJP will earn a similar 'punishment' from the voters in the Tripura Assembly elections remains to be seen. As for immediate concerns, the TMC and BJP's role reversal in Bengal and Tripura has opened the door for competitive violence in the two states.
(The writer is a journalist based in Kolkata)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.