Srikanth Kondapalli the JNU Prof has been Peking behind the Bamboo Curtain for 30 years 
With a forum for the trans-Himalayan region – the ‘China-Xizang Himalayan Forum’ -- Beijing is firstly sending a signal of consolidating and dominating the “roof of the world” in a post-Dalai Lama scenario, secondly encircling India in a multi-dimensional way by following one of its 36 ancient stratagems of “hexiao kongda” (cooperate with the small to counter the big) by providing incentives to South Asian countries to cumulatively exert pressure on New Delhi, and thirdly, obfuscating the impending environmental disaster through its modernisation efforts.
Pointedly, the China-Xizang Himalayan Forum was initiated at Nyingchi prefecture in Tibet, opposite Arunachal Pradesh, in 2018. Its fourth meeting was held in early July this year. The delegates invited, the agenda unveiled, and the larger context, indicate China’s efforts to convert Tibet (renamed recently as Xizang) into the fulcrum of sub-regional initiatives as well as to expand China’s influence in the neighbourhood.
The first forum meeting in September 2018 was attended by representatives from Nepal, Pakistan and other countries, with the agenda focused on economy and tourism. The next three meetings had a focus on environmental issues, one of the weakest issues for China in view of its exploitation of Tibet’s resources.
At the third meeting last October, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi made five points, some of them repetitive, some even contradictory to the current Chinese practice in Tibet. Wang called for upholding mutual respect and mutual trust and building a “trans-Himalaya region into a family of solidarity”. He also called for building an “ecological civilisation” and a “trans-Himalaya region of green development and cooperation”, as well as for regional integration through connectivity and enhancing people-to-people exchange.
The fourth meeting, also held at Lulang town of Nyingchi prefecture on July 5 this year, was attended by nearly 20 countries, including representatives from Nepal, Myanmar, Mongolia, Bhutan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan but also countries like Sri Lanka, Chile, Bolivia, and South Korea. The inclusion of countries not connected in any way to the Himalayas suggests that China is trying to drum up support for its policies in Tibet.
While China entered Tibet in 1951 through military intervention, in recent times, it has intensified not only its control but also its “modernisation” efforts. In August 2020, a few months after the Galwan border incident with India, the decisive Tibet Forum Meeting, attended by the Communist Party’s politburo members, including President Xi Jinping, declared the goal of ushering in “sinicisation of Tibet” – meaning, to intensify the long ongoing effort to strip Tibet of its own characteristics and identity and infuse Han Chinese body and soul into it.
Subsequently, Xi visited Nyingchi prefecture in July 2021 to oversee the progress in infrastructure projects, such as the $5.8 billion Sichuan-Tibet railway line. His visit to Tibet was also to convey a message of resolve to fully integrate the region into China.
As a result, over a period of time, 7.5 million Han Chinese have come into Tibet, drastically altering the demographics of the region and making Tibetans a minority in their own land. China introduced “strike hard” policies of repression and banned the Dalai Lama’s photos or any activity seen as “splittism”. Beijing has sought to take control of the Dalai Lama’s succession by insisting on a “golden urn” process to select the next Dalai Lama. It has also passed the Land Border Law and built 628 “well-off society” villages across Tibet’s borders with the rest of South Asia. These “well-off society” military/paramilitary “watch posts” are expected to consolidate China’s control over the peripheral areas of Tibet and adjoining regions in South Asia. In the event of any political uncertainty in the region, these are expected to trigger military consolidation efforts by China.
China’s modernisation drive saw a flurry of infrastructure projects in Tibet, with the current 14th Five-Year Plan allocating $22 billion in funding for railways, roads, energy pipelines, fibre optics, telecommunications, hydro-electricity dams, and reconstituting Tibetan nomads into ghettos for effective surveillance and control.
While the infrastructure projects attracted an estimated 55 million domestic and foreign tourists to Tibet last year, the world’s “third pole” is under stress due to China’s economic policies. China began exploiting 100 minerals in Tibet, as well as diverting water and electricity from it to the rest of China. As a result, Tibetan glaciers have melted over 15% in the past decades, threatening the fragile environment. However, China wants to convince the participants in the China-Xizang Trans-Himalayan Forum that all is well with the Tibetan ecology.
By including countries like Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar in such meetings, China is trying to counter India. To counter China’s intrusions, India needs to comprehensively review its policies, build an international Buddhist circuit in Arunachal Pradesh, promote eco-tourism in the region, and prepare for Trans-Himalayan turbulence in the coming years.