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Only a few days before the start of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, desperate Israelis worry that the Gaza conflict is poised to intensify and spread to Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank. Israeli political and security officials have been leading intensive discussions to see if further flare-ups can be avoided.
These discussions are being led by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and key cabinet colleagues, in addition to the heads of Israeli security agencies from Mossad, Shin Bet and military intelligence.
Their meetings focus on one site in Jerusalem, namely the Haram Al Sharif (noble sanctuary) that incorporates the Al Aqsa mosque and the Dome of the Rock. For Muslims, the entire compound is their third holiest site after Mecca and Medina in Saudi Arabia. As for the Jews, this same compound is also of profound significance, as well as their holiest site, because they believe it was built adjacent to their First and Second Temples.
During the 30 days of fasting in Ramadan, tens of thousands of Muslims converge on the Haram Al Sharif to offer prayers and commemorate the revelation of the Koran to Prophet Mohammed. Islamic authorities who manage the holy site claim that nearly half a million devout Muslims can be expected to visit the Haram Al Sharif on each of the four Fridays of the holy month.
If the past is any guide, these worshippers will come from occupied East Jerusalem, the nearby occupied West Bank, and from the two million-strong Arab Muslim community that lives inside Israel. In the past few years, no major confrontations have taken place during Ramadan, when the streets leading to the holy sites have been sealed off and heavily patrolled by Israeli security forces.
This year’s Ramadan is different because it takes place against the backdrop of the unresolved Gaza conflict in which, according to Palestinian officials, more than 30,000 Gaza residents have been killed. The war erupted last October, days after Hamas launched its large-scale and unprecedented invasion of Israeli communities bordering Gaza. According to Israel, at least 1,200 civilians and soldiers were killed, and another 240 taken hostage.
Israeli officials are now fearful that because of the continuing war, and the failure of efforts to secure a ceasefire, Islamic extremists could use Ramadan to unleash a fresh wave of attacks on Israel.
This is the reason why Israel’s anti-Arab and far-right politician Itamar Ben Gvir advocates banning most Muslims, including Israeli Arabs, from converging on the Haram Al Sharif. If he has his way, only a handful of Muslims, such as the elderly, will be allowed to set foot on the holy sites. His argument is that Muslim worshippers will use Ramadan celebrations to voice support for Hamas. In the past few years, some Muslim worshippers have indeed unfurled Hamas flags and banners and chanted slogans in support of Hamas’ military commanders.
“I am not going to allow these people to express support for Hamas while our Jewish daughters are being raped in Gaza”, Ben Gvir recently told Israel’s State-run radio station. He was referring to the young women soldiers and other young Jewish women who were kidnapped by Hamas last October. In a separate post on X, he wrote, “It can’t be that women and children are hostages in Gaza and we allow Hamas victory celebrations on the Temple Mount.”
Meanwhile, the heads of Israeli security forces have expressed their strong opposition to Ben Gvir’s proposed restrictions. They reason that Ben Gvir, who also happens to be a cabinet minister in charge of the police, is being provocative, with the deliberate aim of fuelling tensions between Jews and Muslims.
Security officials say they alone should be allowed to draw up plans for policing the holy sites, because politicians like Ben Gvir cannot be trusted. Last week, the minister was excluded from the inner cabinet’s decision-making process when security measures for Ramadan were discussed. Ben Gvir is “unable to maintain Israel’s security”, Israeli Opposition leader Yair Lapid declared last Monday. “It is impossible to go to Ramadan with such a chaotic man in charge.”
The continuing debate about how to tackle any possible Ramadan violence could not have come at a worse time for Israel. Since last October, Israel has mobilised tens of thousands of soldiers to protect both its southern (Gaza) border and the northern borders alongside Lebanon. Most of these soldiers deployed along the borders are reservists, but with Ramadan looming, thousands more will be needed in both East Jerusalem and the West Bank.
Unnamed Israeli officials have been quoted in the local Israeli media as saying the Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar is now on the run and looking for any opportunity to divert attention away from himself and Gaza. Their fear is that he will play on the emotions of devout Muslims, urging them to honour Allah by sacrificing themselves by joining the jihad or holy war against Israelis.
Israeli experts point out that their fears are not without foundation. They say that past Ramadans have not stopped Muslims from waging war against their enemies. One such occasion was the Yom Kippur war of
1973 that erupted on the tenth day of Ramadan.
For their part, Muslims reject any link between Ramadan and war-making. They say that with the exception of the 1973 war, most Ramadans have been largely peaceful. International mediators struggling to secure a ceasefire in Gaza are desperate to end the conflict, so that Ramadan is not used as an excuse for escalating hostilities. Israelis are pessimistic, although a Hamas official was quoted in the Wall Street Journal on Monday as saying he did not rule out a ceasefire before Ramadan.
Regardless of what happens during the holy month, there is consensus among both Arabs and Jews that enforced fasting is already underway in Gaza. According to Palestinian health officials, just on Sunday, some 15 Palestinians died of starvation in Gaza. For these dead and dying Palestinians and other Gaza residents, Ramadan is an irrelevance.
(The writer is a senior journalist based in London)