In about a month, the country will experience a mini-referendum on the national mood. This will not be derived from the usual periodic surveys that populate our political discourse but rather from the more tangible results of assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana.
On October 1, voters in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir will vote to elect a new set of lawmakers to whom they entrust governance. The political landscape in these two places in North India is vastly different, as are the prevailing conditions.
Jammu and Kashmir will vote for 90 assembly members to represent what is now a Union Territory. Following the abrogation of Article 370 and the removal of special status, J&K also lost its statehood. Its 88.66 lakh voters will be exercising their franchise after 10 years. A decade is indeed a long time during which a generational change takes place, and this time around the Union Territory has 4.27 lakh voters eligible to cast a vote for the first time.
The backdrop to the three-phase polling is the change of geographical contours in the wake of the bifurcation post-August 2019 decision of Parliament, which carved out Ladakh as a separate Union Territory. J&K now retains two regions, Jammu and Kashmir Valley, whose political affiliations over the decades too are different.
Jammu and Kashmir holds a special geo-strategic significance in the country, and since Independence, it has been a place that witnessed battles waged by Pakistan over it. Developments in the state tend to acquire international attention, driven at times by Western neighbour’s hostile agenda. Terrorism with links from across the border has been an issue of prime concern with India for the past several decades.
For the past five years, besides the change of status, incremental steps were undertaken to extend several laws applicable elsewhere in the country to J&K. In the post-bifurcation delimitation exercise, we carved out 90 seats, up from 83 in the last assembly (excluding four of Ladakh), and reserved 16 seats for Scheduled Castes/Tribes. Change of situation on ground, reports of prolonged periods of peace, and an emphasis on renewed economic activity for the denizens would be juxtaposed against the emotional tug of the people both for and against the altered status.
At the start of the electoral race, the battle lines drawn make it appear a multi-cornered contest. In the Jammu region, which has 43 seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party maintains a strong presence. The party won 25 seats in the 2014 assembly polls and formed a coalition government with the J&K People’s Democratic Party led by Mufti Mohammed Sayeed. The arrangement was torn apart during his successor, Mehbooba Mufti’s tenure. Her attempts to be part of the I.N.D.I.A. alliance in J&K was stymied. Part of it was the decision of the other strong political contender, J&K National Conference of Farooq Abdullah, to shake hands with the Congress.
Both of these regional parties remain a voice of the Valley. These two regional parties garnered 44% of the vote share in the 2014 assembly polls. However, the recent Lok Sabha polls threw up a different result. NC’s Omar Abdullah lost from Baramulla to Engineer Rashid, who continues to be in jail facing charges of terror funding under UAPA. Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party will be watching whether its candidates can upset the established regional players. Similar forays, organised or as independents by others associated with separatist agendas, add to the uncertainty around elections. Mehbooba Mufti lost to the National Conference’s Sufi peer, Mian Altaf Ahmad. Former Chief Minister Mehbooba will be keen to re-establish her party’s presence, which could challenge the NC for a political space.
Despite its formidable presence in the Jammu region, the party faces challenges both within and outside. While the BJP can draw solace that its national opponent, the Congress, does not offer a strong opposition, the combination of I.N.D.I.A. partners alters the situation, accentuated by sharp dissent within.
Haryana
With part of its boundary running with Delhi, the national political atmosphere does play a role in state politics. The result in the recent Lok Sabha polls shows which way the wind was blowing, with the Congress and the BJP splitting equally the 10 seats from Haryana.
Political pundits who follow turns in state politics are of the view the results did not translate into a sense of anger and frustration among the people there. The BJP headed the government in the state for the last 10 years, five years on its strength and the next five in coalition with the Jananayak Janta Party of Dushyant Chautala, the grandson of legendary Jat leader Devi Lal. Having served as the deputy chief minister, Dushyant Chautala and JJP are facing attrition. In a bid to arrest the slide, the party tied up with the Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram), led by firebrand Dalit leader and MP Chandrashekar Azad. Dalits with over 20% presence can tilt the scales in several constituencies in the state where Jats dominate.
The Jats are a political force in the state, forming the backbone of the agricultural sector, which is vital to the state’s economy. Ongoing farmers’ distress and lingering resentment from the prolonged agitations pose additional challenges for the BJP. The party effected a change of leadership, bringing in Nayab Singh Saini in place of Manohar Lal Khattar. Doubts persist about whether the move could blunt anti-incumbency and the wrath of the voters, of whom over two crores are eligible now.
At the start, as forces begin to assemble, the Congress enjoys a definite edge in the 90-member assembly. The only imponderable is the high level of infighting with camps opposed to former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, gearing up to wrest the leadership from this Jat, who promised to take all communities along. Political, as the saying goes, is the art of the possible.
(The writer is a New Delhi-based senior journalist)