Jammu and Kashmir National Conference Vice President Omar Abdullah being greeted by supporters after winning the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections from Budgam and Ganderbal constituencies, in Srinagar, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024.
Credit: PTI Photo
The people of Kashmir had their moment to relay a political message after five years of a repressive bureaucratic apparatus, which under the aegis of a New Delhi-appointed Lieutenant Governor dictates every aspect of their social and political conduct. They spoke through their ballot in the three-phased Jammu & Kashmir Assembly elections, held after a gap of 10 years which illustrates the grave assault on democracy the region has endured.
The message is loud and clear: Kashmiris repudiate everything New Delhi has engineered in the restive erstwhile state after the abrogation of its special status on August 5, 2019. In ducking New Delhi’s every subterfuge and bluff, whether it was the incubation of new political formations that came with the trappings of combating politics of entitlement or lending a ‘holier-than-thou’ halo around a jailed politician and unleashing him on the frontrunners to create a fractured field, Kashmiris have demonstrated they are way smarter than New Delhi had assessed. Of J&K’s 90 Assembly seats, the National Conference (NC) won 42, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 29, the Congress six, and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) three.
The intrigue has only begun. There is now a massive playfield available to NC leader Omar Abdullah. The unified voice backing him was painstakingly assembled. It required circumventing two major faultiness: separatism versus mainstream politics, and the inevitable urge to jettison secular leadership for religious figureheads in reaction to everyday deployment of Hindu-majoritarian rhetoric on news screens. It is now up to Abdullah to optimise this playfield.
The challenges galore. The question is of reconciling to the populace in Jammu which unwaveringly endorsed the BJP’s Hindu-nationalist ideology. Nothing else explains the BJP’s astounding performance in Jammu despite palpable anger against the absorption of local businesses by outsiders. The BJP is not only emboldened but also obligated to translate its remainder inflammatory rhetoric into practice. Will Abdullah find solidarity from his colleagues in the I.N.D.I.A. bloc.? Unlikely. They will continue to co-opt ingredients of Right-wing politics to counter Right-wing politics.
Reining in unwieldy bureaucrats will not be easy, especially when executive powers have been concentrated on the Lieutenant Governor, who will likely orchestrate everyday interruptions.
But more than anything else, the NC must contain its urge to bask in a false sense of validation. The verdict needs to be deciphered correctly. It is not a manifestation of loyal and dependable voters’ solidarity. It is triggered by a realisation that a well-planned and calibrated navigating is needed to surmount the monstrous Narendra Modi regime, and that the Abdullah family, with nearly a century of political experience, is suited for it.
The ‘stability discourse’ is among the factors behind the PDP’s collapse — the primary one being people’s reluctance to forgive its unholy alliance with the BJP. Iltija Mufti’s over-the-top electoral foray added to people’s exasperation. Her defeat was a foregone conclusion in journalistic circles. There seems to be a lack of realisation in her that the age of deference is over.
Dynasties will still survive but their scions’ launches must be modestly architected. They must display a learning curve rather than exude ‘I am to the manner born’ vibes which will intensify the debate on entitlement. A prominent Kashmiri politician, who helmed an important portfolio in the now defunct PAGD, once told me of her: “The daughter thinks she is smarter than the mother [Mehbooba Mufti]”.
The people who question her condescending tone in personal interactions cannot help but admit that she has shown exemplary connect with the crowd despite her limited exposure to politics. Political observers underline the need to give her more time before a more reasonable judgment can be drawn of her, especially given a section of society’s tendency to be dismissive of women politicians.
However, Mehbooba Mufti was remarkably composed in her media address after the rout. There was no hint of bitterness as she deflected questions on whether she would support the NC. This is the ingredient required for a sensible Opposition leader.
The reference to the PDP is to underline that the NC’s mandate is not built on existing trust. It is despite trust. The trust needs to be built by taking the BJP’s political projects head-on. The BJP will not sit back. When people fail miserably at an important juncture of history, they are either dejected and change tack to reconcile to the changed reality or become viscerally retributive. The BJP will be viscerally retributive.
Abdullah will have to choose his course. Will he be a quiescent politician settling for trifles such as statehood? Or will he spearhead Kashmiris’ quest for their right to dignity?
(Anando Bhakto is a New Delhi-based journalist and a World Press Institute fellow.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.