On Sunday evening, the Janata Dal (United) denied a Rajya Sabha ticket to its senior leader RCP Singh, once considered a confidante of party chief Nitish Kumar. After a meeting of senior leaders, the JD(U) announced the name of Khiru Mahto for the Rajya Sabha seat that RCP Singh currently holds. The seat is up for re-election as his term ends in July.
Khiru Mahato belongs to the Kurmi caste, as does Nitish Kumar, and is the president of the JDU's Jharkhand unit. Sixty-nine-year old Mahto has been an associate of Nitish Kumar since the days of the Samata Party, which George Fernandes and Nitish Kumar floated in 1994 after splitting the Janata Dal. Lalan Singh, a Lok Sabha MP and JDU's national president, told a news channel, "He (Khiru Mahto) is a devoted party worker. So he was given the ticket." Lalan Singh said the intent was to expand the party's base in Jharkhand.
RCP Singh ran from pillar to post to get a third Rajya Sabha term and even tried to secure one from the BJP lest the JDU denied him, but both spurned him. Now, all eyes are on RCP Singh's next move. Will he remain with the JDU as a powerless leader, or will he rebel against Nitish Kumar? Since he is considered close to the BJP, will he join that party and be accorded adequate respect there?
Read: RCP Singh: Saga of the meteoric rise of a Kurmi bureaucrat-turned-politician
Of late, Nitish Kumar and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) MLA, former deputy CM, Tejashwi Yadav, have showcased much bonhomie in iftar parties.
When the CBI recently raided the residence of former CM Rabri Devi regarding a case related to a job in the Railways in exchange for land, JDU leaders, who usually never miss an opportunity to attack Lalu Prasad and his family, quite unexpectedly, remained silent on this issue. This new found chemistry between Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav is being interpreted as indicating that the Bihar CM could be preparing to jump the NDA's ship.
However, for the BJP, a truck with the JDU is inevitable if it is to rule in the state because the saffron party still does not hold a significant vote bank of its own to secure a simple majority in Bihar. It also remembers its drubbing in the 2015 assembly elections when the RJD and JDU came together and swept the polls. The BJP performed poorly, winning only 53 of the 243 seats, 38 fewer than its tally in the 2010 elections that it had fought in alliance with the JDU, despite its stellar performance in the 2014 general elections.
The BJP, therefore, is treading cautiously and is likely to keep Nitish Kumar in good humour until it politically weakens the JDU enough or finds an alternative. Political analysts think the BJP would not risk angering the JDU by accepting RCP Singh into its fold, particularly since the presidential election is around the corner. The JDU's votes, both of its legislators in Bihar and its MPs in Parliament, will be necessary for an NDA supported candidate.
Political analyst Suroor Ahmed says, "The BJP can only afford RCP Singh if he splits around 30 MLAs of the JDU to help the BJP form a government minus the JDU. But the BJP, I think, will not wish to take the risk of only RCP Singh joining them because he is not a politically strong leader."
The grapevine in Patna has it that RCP Singh could do a Jitan Ram Manjhi on his political mentor. After the JDU's debacle in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, Nitish Kumar had quit as the CM and propped Manjhi in his place. However, Manjhi refused when Nitish Kumar later asked him to resign. Manjhi failed to win a vote of confidence despite the BJP support and subsequently left the JDU to form his party.
But RCP Singh is no Jitan Ram Manjhi. He is not a mass leader. Even if he were to split the JDU, it would be difficult for him to establish himself politically, senior journalist Manikant Thakur says. "Yes, some JDU leaders he had obliged when he was the JDU's national president are with RCP Singh, but they will first analyse which party will benefit them then jump ship," Thakur added.
Why has JDU denied RCP Singh?
RCP Singh, an alumnus of Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University and a former bureaucrat, is the lone minister from the JDU quota in the NDA cabinet at the Centre. Sixty-three-year old Singh is a Kurmi and was once considered the closest leader to Nitish Kumar. He is from Nalanda, the native district of Nitish Kumar.
RCP Singh served as a private secretary to Nitish Kumar when the latter was a union minister in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government. Subsequently, he was the principal secretary of Bihar when Nitish Kumar became chief minister in 2005. RCP Singh took voluntary retirement in 2010 and joined the JDU.
The former bureaucrat was a loyal lieutenant of Nitish Kumar until July last year. Despite the BJP-led NDA's landslide win in the 2019 general election, the JDU was out of the union council of ministers as the party demanded berths proportionate to its MPs. Still, the BJP was amenable to giving only one ministry. Nitish Kumar had authorised RCP Singh to negotiate with the BJP. But RCP turned out to be close to the BJP.
When the union council of ministers was expanded in July last year, RCP Singh joined the cabinet without consulting Nitish Kumar. The Bihar CM was extremely upset and immediately sacked RCP Singh from the post of the party's national president. Since then, the relationship between the two has been bitter. Finally, Nitish Kumar has diminished RCP Singh to a political leader without any post and power.
(Umesh Kumar Ray is a Patna-based independent journalist)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.