Three years ago, on the fateful night of June 15, 2020, China’s soldiers unleashed violence killing 20 Indian soldiers at Galwan in the western sector of the border with India. In the period since, what we have witnessed is China’s coercive military posture, diplomatic obfuscation, reneging on well-established protocols and border pacts, deliberate stalling of the border talks, endless discussions at the ground level, diversionary tactics to gain territorial advantage, and unleashing of unprecedented psychological warfare on India.
As China reneged on its promise to abide by the 1993 peace and tranquillity agreement, the 1996 confidence-building measures, and the 2005 and 2013 agreements, India insisted that these agreements be observed in toto for restoration of bilateral ties.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar stated on June 17, 2020, that unless and until peace and tranquillity prevailed at the border, bilateral relations would not improve. Over 30 dialogue processes between the two countries have been shut down, including the Special Representatives meetings on the territorial dispute, strategic dialogues between the two foreign ministries, annual defence dialogues, strategic and economic dialogue between Niti Aayog and China’s National Development Reform Council, dialogues between the two finance ministries, youth exchanges, media and think-tank dialogues and others. In fact, today, the world’s second and fifth largest economies do not even have each other’s journalists on their soil!
Eighteen rounds of Corps Commanders’ meetings took place to resolve the stand-off in the Ladakh sector that China precipitated in April-May 2020. In February 2021, the two defence ministries issued a statement, with the Chinese side suggesting a “synchronised disengagement”, while the Indian side sought a “phased, coordinated and verifiable” disengagement and de-escalation process.
While some progress was made in these 18 rounds, China refuses to vacate the Depsang Plains and Demchok areas, which Indian troops traditionally patrolled along the LAC. China wants its current occupation of these areas to be the “new normal”. China’s Western Theatre Command spokesman Long Shaohua audaciously called upon India to meet China “half way”.
Meanwhile, reflecting Beijing’s diplomatic obfuscation, China’s new Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Defence Minister Li Shangfu have stated during their visits to attend G-20 and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meetings in India that despite mobilising troops in thousands across the LAC, the border situation remains “normal”. Qin even stated that “China is willing to work with India to carry out bilateral consultations and exchanges, enhance dialogue and cooperation under multilateral frameworks, deepen coordination and cooperation on international and regional issues, and push China-India relations back to a healthy and stable development track”. All this while China refused to vacate recently occupied territories and mobilised troops and equipment.
External Affairs Minister Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh have continued to state and re-state India’s position: implement agreements, vacate areas occupied since 2020, maintain peace and tranquillity on the borders, and we can talk about improving bilateral relations.
Gen Li’s comments, however, reveal China’s game plan. Li said, “The two sides should take a long-term view, place the border issue in an appropriate position in bilateral relations, and promote the transition of the border situation to normalised management”.
In other words, Li said that China is not going to remove its troops along the LAC, that India should compromise on China’s aggrandisement, consider the current positions the “new normal”, stop bringing up the territorial dispute and instead improve other aspects of the bilateral relationship.
In the light of such attitude of Beijing, India needs to continue to stand up to China’s machinations. The strategic roads construction and deployment of advanced weapon systems, in addition to deployments of troops all across the LAC, has stood India in good stead. The Yagtse incident near Tawang last December proved that. While China is facing casualties in high-altitude regions of Aksai Chin and Tibet, battle-hardened Indian troops are now more than a match for China’s armed forces. India needs to bolster non-conventional methods of warfare, perhaps taking a leaf from the Ukrainians. For three long years, India has stood by its principles while standing up to China. The world has seen this and is convinced of China’s perfidy. Meanwhile, China is locked in disputes and conflicts with many of its neighbours and the world’s major powers. The strategic situation is therefore conducive for India.
(Srikanth Kondapalli, the JNU Prof has been Peking behind the Bamboo Curtain for 30 years. @Sri_Kondapalli.)