A decadal census had been conducted unfailingly in India since 1881 until 2011; the 2021 census was the first one to be skipped -- on the pretext of the pandemic. Under Article 82 of the Constitution, the parliament by law enacts a Delimitation Act after every census, following which the central government constitutes a Delimitation Commission.
The Commission then defines the parliamentary constituency boundaries as per the guidelines in the Delimitation Act.
The Lok Sabha constituencies were to be redrawn following the first census after 2026 – that is, the 2031 census – based on the population numbers then.
But, if the BJP retains power after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it is not clear if the government would wait until 2031 to conduct the next census and then take up delimitation or initiate the two exercises earlier.
Delimitation Commissions have been constituted four times since Independence.
The first delimitation was done in 1952, following the 1951 census, under the Delimitation Commission Act, 1952, wherein 494 Lok Sabha seats were enumerated for the first general elections.
The next delimitation exercise came in 1963, following the reorganisation of states in 1956 and based on the 1961 census, and it saw the number of Lok Sabha seats go up to 522. The third exercise was done in 1973, under the Delimitation Act, 1972, based on the 1971 census, taking the number of Lok Sabha seats to 543.
After the delimitation in 1972-73, the process was suspended twice for 25 years, first in 1976 under Indira Gandhi to allow time for population growth rates to align in all states across the country so as to ensure a fair delimitation process. Therefore, there were no delimitation exercises after the 1981 and 1991 census exercises. In 2002 again, during the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government, delimitation was put off to be undertaken following the “first census after 2026” to allow states in the north, especially UP and Bihar, to catch up with the southern states, which had progressed way ahead in reducing population growth rates.
In 2008, delimitation was based on the census of 2001; however, the total number of seats in parliament and the state Assemblies fixed as per the census of 1971 were not changed. By keeping the maximum number of seats in the Lok Sabha capped at 550, delimitation has come to mean that each legislator represents an increasing number of people. The lifting of the cap on the number of seats has also been put off to 2026 and beyond.
According to Article 81, each state must receive a certain number of seats in the Lok Sabha based on its population. However, given the political motives of the current dispensation at the Centre, there are genuine apprehensions over the proposed delimitation of Lok Sabha seats after 2026.
A serious imbalance in the number of Lok Sabha seats between the northern and southern states could result if delimitation is carried out primarily on population -- the southern states, which have for decades used a progressive set of policies to manage population growth, stand to suffer grave injustice. Delimitation would be advantageous to the northern states that have disregarded the central government’s population control policies, and detrimental to the southern states that are working to boost the country’s economy.
Electorally, a national party that is confident of winning big in the Hindi heartland can simply ignore the southern states.
Thus, if population-based delimitation is implemented, the southern states will lose their voice and will become like the North-East states, which hardly get heard because their representation in parliament is negligible. India will become overwhelmingly North India-centric, and South India will remain a permanent minority in parliament. The southern states, with only 18% of the population, contribute 35 per cent of the national GDP and much to national economic and technological development as well as to progressive policies. Delimitation based on population would then mean punishing the southern states for sending girls to school or for having had social movements that empowered women. If the distribution of parliamentary constituencies results in a loss of representation for the South, it will only make things worse for the southern states than they already are in terms of political clout as well as financial devolution.
Already, it is generally felt that political leaders from the South are not given adequate representation and weightage in the political milieu of the Centre vis-a-vis what political leaders from the North enjoy. The fact that the political centre of gravity is moving North, while the economic centre of gravity is moving South has created a paradox. Despite making greater economic contribution to the country, the South is marginalised culturally and does not hold a prominent political position. The Indian federal system is in danger of becoming more fractious if these problems are not resolved.
Any move to go in for delimitation based purely on the revised population numbers after the next census must be strongly opposed. When the national population policy was introduced, parliament gave assurance to all states that the decline in population growth rates in the progressive states would not affect their political representation. A promise made by the central government and parliament cannot be revoked. Instead of swallowing the injustice and suffering silently, the leaders and people of the southern states should perceive the impending danger and intensify their efforts to exert continuous pressure on the Centre, transcending their political affiliations and agendas, and speak out for just representation, no matter when the next delimitation is conducted. Else, the southern states must insist on freezing the delimitation exercise for another 25 years or until population stabilisation has been attained by all states.
Demographic and statistical experts can be asked to create a mathematical model similar to the “Cambridge Compromise” based on a theoretically fair mechanism for allocating seats in the European Parliament among the member-states. That formula can be customised for our needs. No matter what, the South must not suffer any injustice on account of delimitation.
(The writer is a former Deputy Director of Boilers)