By Timothy L. O'Brien
Donald Trump advised Hillary Clinton during their second presidential debate in 2016 that he would sic the Justice Department on her if he was elected.
“It’s just awfully good that someone with the temperament of Donald Trump is not in charge of the law in our country,” Clinton responded.
“Because you’d be in jail,” Trump cooed into his mic, deploying the timing and baritone of a Las Vegas lounge act. The line landed, drawing cheers and applause from his partisans in the audience.
The circumstances of that debate played into the former reality TV star’s strengths. There were live mics and a live audience, and Trump strolled about freely, towering over Clinton and occasionally lurking just behind her when she spoke. (Polls had Clinton the winner in all three of her debates with Trump, though that didn’t translate into victory in the election.)
When Vice President Kamala Harris faces off against the former president on Tuesday night in Philadelphia for their first debate, she won’t have to contend with quite as much performance art. There won’t be live mics or a live audience; answers and rebuttals will be limited to two minutes; and the debaters will be confined to their podiums.
Trump, who is 78, has also aged and noticeably sagged over the last eight years. He appears to be hard of hearing, his shoulders are starting to hunch, he is often mush-mouthed when he speaks, and decades of untethered soliloquies now frequently give way to indecipherable gibberish when he tries to explain himself and the world to audiences.
Harris, who turns 60 next month, comes to this event saddled with voters’ memories of President Joe Biden’s catatonic performance in a June debate with Trump that fueled her ascent and a historic recasting of an epic, consequential presidential battle. She’s largely unformed in the minds of many voters who’ll decide the election’s outcome, but she also brings the kind of authentic momentum, charisma and star power that Trump, a student of celebrity and little else, envies and fears.
Debates, the prevailing electoral wisdom goes, don’t matter all that much. And yet, they sometimes do. Both campaigns are taking this one seriously because of that.
Trump will be Trump — on the attack, ill-informed, dismissive and histrionic. And that’s what his base wants from him. His campaign wants Nice Donald to show up at the debate, in much the same way his advisers waited for Unifier Donald to appear at the Republican National Convention. Divisive Donald closed out the RNC and Nasty Donald will likely take a bow Tuesday night.
If Harris wants to run the table in Philadelphia, here are some, but not all, of the things she might want to keep in mind:
The camera will be on the candidates for a full 90 minutes, and even when they’re not speaking, they’ll be watched. Clips will go viral. Biden looked like a zombie on his side of that white line at his June debate. His chances of success and a second term withered, arguably, within the first 10 or 15 minutes.
Trump, rarely restrained, came across as restrained even though he was weaving fables throughout the debate. Restraint won the day over befuddled. Harris has been adept, optimistic, informed and regularly pitch-perfect on the campaign trail. That’s who she should be on the split screen.
Trump, like all comedians, is at ease in front of crowds and enjoys performing. He’s also easily rattled, and the things that rattle him are bespoke. He doesn’t mind be labeled a liar; he does mind being seen as weird. He doesn’t mind being labeled a buffoon; he does mind being seen as incompetent. He’s fine if you say he fawns over dictators; he’s not cool if you say he tried to torch the Constitution.
He’s fine if you say he’ll abuse the presidency’s legal powers; he’s not if you describe him as lawless. He’s fine attacking people for how they look; he’s not fine being described as a low-energy senior citizen. He likes saying he presided over a booming economy in the White House; he doesn’t like hearing that Biden’s economy has been stronger. Harris has already gotten under Trump’s skin. Finding the right places to needle him further will throw him off balance in a debate. She should go on the offensive accordingly.
As long as the participants don’t routinely try to run roughshod over their opponent or simply ignore every question moderators put in front of them, the audience at home can forgive a lot of dodging in a debate. Biden beat Trump in their 2020 debates, in part because Trump, sweating and belligerent, interrupted Biden ad nauseam.
Biden was the clear adult in the room. He accepted the moderators’ guidance more frequently than Trump did while also knowing when it was time to deflect or dodge a question. Harris can do the same.
Abortion and reproductive rights are a winning issue for the Democrats and for Harris. Trump has flipped and flopped on abortion and related issues so many times he can’t truly be said to have a credible position anymore. Harris should tee that up, alongside her record as a prosecutor and her views on crime and law enforcement.
Immigration has been an Achilles’ heel for Democrats, though an available and good riposte on this is reminding viewers that Trump tanked a bipartisan immigration bill for craven political reasons and Biden’s recent tightening of asylum laws has helped calm down the southern border. A sound, post-Covid public health approach could be useful to point to, along with race, gender and wealth inequities. Paramount: Harris is a messenger for mature judgment, optimism about the American Dream and a focus on the future. Joy and opportunity are always good cards to play.
This is related to the previous point about issues. This race has always been about six or seven swing states and the undecided or persuadable voters who live there. They care about a multitude of things, of course. But the economy regularly tops their lists. Inflation — a proxy for a broader and more grinding affordability nightmare for many folks — has been one facet of this.
Trump will surely pound away at this theme along with fearmongering about an immigrant invasion. Harris has data and reality on her side on the economy. Goldman Sachs recently projected that the US economy would fare better under a Harris White House than a Trump White House. Harris should fly that flag.
Trump isn’t a public servant or a healer. It’s always been about him rather than voters. He has broken many promises along the way. Harris should flick at his self-absorption and grifting throughout the debate.
Trump decided to call on his running mate, Senator JD Vance, Representative Matt Gaetz and former Representative Tulsi Gabbard, among others, to help him prepare for the Philadelphia debate. That alone should put a spring in Harris’ step.