Uzbekistan is holding a presidential election on Sunday, but it's difficult to tell from the sleepy feel of the capital Tashkent, where nobody doubts the outcome of the vote.
The Central Asian country's president, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, is standing for a second five-year term after embarking on a surprise reform programme following the death in 2016 of his hardline predecessor and mentor Islam Karimov.
The 64-year-old former prime minister has won plaudits for dismantling forced labour, releasing dissidents subjected to extreme torture under Karimov and opening the economy to tourism and investment.
But critics say change hasn't extended to the ballot box, where Mirziyoyev is running against four candidates put forward by loyalist parties with roots in the Karimov era, none of whom have dared to cross the president in their campaigns.
For Ikhtiyor Bahromov, a 32-year-old Tashkent taxi driver who smiled wryly as his car passed an electronic billboard alternating images of the five candidates, the choice on offer is no choice at all.
"They should spend all this money on something else," Bahromov said. "These people are all on the same team -- his team!"
Voting on Sunday will begin at 8:00 am local time (0300 GMT) and continue until 8:00 pm (1500 GMT) across Uzbekistan, a landlocked country of 34 million whose steppes and deserts were a key part of the ancient Silk Road.
Once Mirziyoyev has wrapped up what is expected to be a crushing victory, attention will return to the question of whether Uzbekistan can continue the optimistic trajectory that saw it made The Economist magazine's "Country of the Year" in 2019.
Strategically located on Afghanistan's doorstep in a region where Russia and China are asserting their clout, the ex-Soviet country is certainly freer now than it was under Karimov.
Mirziyoyev's decision to end de facto slavery in the cotton fields where thousands of teachers and children once toiled prompted waves of international praise.
But the last two years have seen a crackdown on dissent, particularly in the online spaces that bloomed after 2016.
Dissatisfaction has grown after the coronavirus pandemic ate into impressive economic growth, putting a tourism boom on ice and exposing widespread joblessness as migrants returned en masse from Russia.
Observers speculated that unrest over energy shortages last year -- resulting in rare protests -- might have motivated authorities' decision to hold Sunday's election two months ahead of schedule.
Sabokhat Rakhimova, a 50-year-old resident of Tashkent, complained of growing inequality as the rich tap new economic opportunities and the poor battle rising living costs.
"A great wall is emerging in our society," Rakhimova said, explaining her decision not to vote.
One man who pledged to challenge Mirziyoyev at the election, academic Khidirnazar Allakulov, fell at the first hurdle after failing to register a party that could nominate him.
Human Rights Watch said this month that officials "harassed (Allakulov's) party supporters and interfered in their efforts to collect signatures for registration".
Temur Umarov, a Central Asia expert at the Carnegie Moscow Center, told AFP that Uzbekistan is now running out of space for reforms that don't require a significant overhaul of the authoritarian system.
"Corruption at the top of government still exists and the leadership just ignores it. At the same time, Uzbekistan's society is more active than it used to be, and it will not be satisfied if the government doesn't continue reforms," Umarov said.
Mirziyoyev, however, continues to believe that his pro-change presidency is on track.
"Vote for whomever you want," Mirziyoyev told residents of the densely populated Fergana Valley region during a working trip last month. "I believe we will show the international community that we are on the path to democracy."
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