China may indigenise high technology imports

China is expected to go ‘Atma Nirbhar’ with regard to high technology imports in future, especially the purchases of aircraft from US.

In the present scenario, industry experts do not expect China’s COMAC C919 shall pose a threat for Boeing 737 MAX(in picture) or Airbus A320. But the Chinese have a zeal to indigenise their domestic airlines with C919. They have an ambition to penetrate African markets too. The third largest aircraft manufacturer, Embraer of Brazil is in a weak position after the withdrawal of support from Boeing.

This is the gist of what transpired in a discussion on the evening of 5th of June. The popular trade journal Aviation Week of US, had organised a webinar on ‘Airbus, Boeing and Embraer: Flight Paths Forward’. The speakers were renowned Aerospace Analysts, Industry Consultants and Contributing Editors of the journal.

The participation to this webinar was on invitation to select experts across the globe. Covid-19 has pushed airlines to the brink of collapse worldwide, which in turn has throttled aircraft manufacturers. Last month, Airbus announced a 30% production cut and Boeing which is bled with grounding of 737 MAX aircraft too has curtailed its major production lines. Airbus and Boeing together delivered just 12 aircraft during April 2020; a phenomenal 87% lower compared to April 2019 figures.

This has left with no choices than focusing on new strategies for survival.

The panelists debated on how the manufacturing industries would manage dwindling passenger traffic, closure of airline companies and cancellation of lease agreements.

They spoke on the viability of narrow body aircraft replacing the current wide body aircraft. As anticipated, the topic of revival of 737 MAX was on the top of the discussion. They opined that the flight testing and re-certification process may be prolonged and A320 may survive in this period. While debating on this topic, the Chinese C919’s prospects figured prominently. Though it is a poor competitor to 737 MAX in terms of range and seats, the Chinese aggressiveness shall improve its market.

This shall impact the sales of both Boeing and Airbus aircraft in China. Further, the supply-chain for major aircraft manufacturers have heavy dependency on China. This too might affect the production lines of all the three major aircraft manufacturers for some time.

The industry experts feel that the airlines may not buy new aircraft in large numbers for the next 3 to 4 years. Covid-19 has shelved many design improvements projects like all-electric, more-electric, hybrid, hydrogen-fueled aircraft. The Super Sonic Transport project too shall take a back seat for some time. With the oil prices on downtrend, engine manufacturers may not invest on fuel-saving designs soon.

Airlines may like to operate a greater number of narrow body aircraft till the traffic bounce back. The wide bodies need around 22-23 pilots per aircraft, while narrow bodies require only 10 pilots. This shall greatly reduce their operating costs.

Both Boeing and Airbus, may use this cooling period to work on new designs, which are environment friendly and cost effective. Cash strapped Embraer may look at China for investments, and probably even India.

(The writer is a former Scientist with DRDO and a former DGM at HAL and has worked on the design and certification of many indigenous aircraft, including LCA ‘Tejas’)