Modi’s win in assembly polls seen boosting case for India inflows

A win for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party in key state elections is likely to boost India’s appeal for foreign investors and result in more inflows into local equities, according to market participants.

Portfolio managers say the results will ensure policy continuity and lift prospects for the stock market as international investors become more confident in their India allocations ahead of national elections. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. sees cyclical stocks benefiting the most from the outcome of the polls while Nuvama Wealth Management says it has become more confident in the government’s capital expenditure.

India’s benchmark NSE Nifty 50 Index closed at a record high on Friday while the futures climbed as much as 1.6% early on Monday.

Here’s what market participants are saying:

Gary Dugan, chief investment officer at Dalma Capital Management Ltd.

“Going into this set of state elections, there were some concerns among foreign investors that the BJP would suffer something of a setback, however, that has proven not to be the case.”

There will be even greater confidence that “Modi will carry the day in the next national elections and that the current market friendly policies of the government will be maintained and built upon.”

“We see the Sensex pushing to new highs” due to factors such as “good political backdrop, hopes for lower global interest rates.”

Matthew Haupt, portfolio manager at Wilson Asset Management

“What it does do is give investors increased confidence and duration to the India trade and will likely see continued capital inflows to India.”

Jefferies’ strategists including Mahesh Nandurkar

Modi’s party winning three crucial state elections, exceeding exit polls’ predictions, may boost investor sentiment for domestic cyclical stocks including banks, industrial and power.

It also “reinforces the consensus expectations of a Modi win 2024 national elections with a greater likelihood of 300+ seats for the BJP.”

Deven Choksey, managing director of DRChoksey FinServ Pvt.

“The results show that India’s hinterland is asking for convincing policies for growth and the market will attract a lot of money in the coming months.”

Global investors will now become even “more comfortable with India allocation ahead of elections.”

Prashanth Tapse, analyst, Mumbai-based Mehta Securities Ltd.

“A stable political environment could further boost investors’ confidence and drive the markets higher, with the possibility of benchmark Nifty attaining 20500-20800 levels going ahead appears bright.”

Kapil Gupta, an economist at Nuvama

“This lessens the risk of a populist turn and bodes well for continued government capex. Markets are likely to cheer the electoral outcome for now as it abates political risk.”