For Bihar battle, the die is cast(e): Muslim-Yadavs vs the 4Ms

The NDA's four Ms include Mahadalits, Most Backward Class, Mahila and, above all, Modi

Till last month, it looked like a one-sided Bihar election, with the NDA all set to sweep the poll. In fact, such was the scenario tilted in favour of the ruling dispensation that other than Nitish Kumar, no other political party was in favour of holding Assembly elections amid Covid-19 pandemic.

But once, the Election Commission announced the poll schedule, the mist got cleared. In the last three weeks, the permutations and combinations saw so dramatic changes, that the ‘one-sided poll’ is now heading for a nail-biting finish, with both the camps – the RJD-led Mahagatbandhan and the BJP-led NDA on an equally strong footing.

Also read — 19 lakh jobs, free Covid-19 vaccine to all: BJP's promises to Bihar in election manifesto

Ridiculed by his opponents over his educational qualifications, the Mahagatbandhan Chief Ministerial nominee Tejashwi Yadav has taken a quantum leap in terms of campaign and presented himself as a true challenger to the present incumbent Nitish Kumar. Nitish is drawing huge flak throughout the state over the issue of unemployment, migration and for being a master of somersaults (also nicknamed Paltu Ram for his numerous U-turns).

“The kind of mad rush at Tejashwi’s rally in Magadh and Shahbad region reminds me of Lalu’s rally in 1995 (the first Assembly poll held after Mandal report of August 1990),” says veteran journalist Rakesh Pandey, who has covered Bihar in the last three decades.

Also read — If Nitish wins, Bihar will be defeated, says Chirag Paswan after seeking his blessings

“The upper caste-dominated media had then written off Lalu and made fun of his buffoonery. But the maverick Lalu proved all the political pundits wrong. I find Tejashwi in a similar situation. Though he lacks his father’s charisma to woo rural voters, he has struck an emotional chord with the youth across the state,” said Pandey.

“Three things have swiftly worked in favour of Tejashwi. First, the Muslims and Yadavs, the M-Y combination, ‘stitched’ by his father, is standing by him like a rock. Second, the numerically-strong cadres of the Left parties, particularly the CPI-ML, are on the ground rooting for Mahagatbandhan candidates. The third is Nitish’s self-created problem by his ‘enemy within’,” argued Pandey, adding that numerically, the 17 per cent Muslims and 13 per cent Yadavs, besides the Left cadres, are working for the Opposition in a similar way as the RSS and the BJP cadres work for the NDA nominees.

Relatively, the BJP is on a strong footing compared to its ally - the JD (U) as the voters' anger in Bihar is perceived to be more against Nitish, and not against Narendra Modi.

Also read — JD (U)-BJP alliance to cross majority mark in Bihar even as CM Nitish Kumar's popularity dips: Survey

“Fifteen years is too long a period to govern a state like Bihar. Anti-incumbency was bound to be there. But Nitish is relying on four Ms, besides BJP’s support base of upper caste. These four Ms include: Mahadalits (17 per cent), Most Backward Class (MBC, a sub-section of the OBC which excludes prosperous backwards like Yadavs, Kurmis and Vaishyas), Mahila (women, who are largely happy with Nitish’s prohibition policy) and, above all, Modi,” said eminent political commentator Ajay Kumar.

“It will be interesting to watch whether Modi can draw a bigger crowd than Tejashwi when the PM starts his campaign on October 23. And more importantly, whether this crowd/gathering actually translates into votes,” the political scientist added.