Hopes range from clear majority to hung Assembly in Kerala

As the nearly month-long wait after the April 6 polling to the Kerala Assembly elections ends on Sunday, the ruling CPM-led Left Democratic Front and the opposition Congress-led United Democratic Front are expressing a high level of confidence of a clear majority in the 140 member Kerala Assembly, while the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is confident of emerging as a decisive force in a hung assembly.

While the LDF and the UDF camps were projecting victory in around 75 to 80 seats, the BJP is projecting seven to 12 seats.

The key factor of this election is whether the Pinarayi Vijayan government will get a historic second consecutive term for the LDF. The LDF and UDF have been coming to power alternatively in the state since 1980 after the formation of the present coalitions. For CPM ,this election is all more important for their significance at the
national level also as Kerala is the only state where it is now in power.

Growth of BJP in Kerala is another key political outcome that assumes even national attention. The saffron party managed to win one seat for the first time in Kerala in the last Assembly election. But that was generally considered as personal or sentimental votes bagged by veteran leader O Rajagopal who had been unsuccessfully contesting in
many elections. He is also keeping off from electoral fray this time.

But the saffron party has been consistently improving its vote share in Kerala over the years. While the NDA's vote share was just 6.03 percent in 2011 Assembly polls, it increased to around 15 percent in 2016.

Also read: Exit poll predictions: Mixed results for TMC in West Bengal; DMK likely to win Tamil Nadu

Not only that the BJP won one seat in 2016, but came second in seven other seats. It included Manjeshwar in Kasargod which was lost for just 89 votes by the party state president K Surendran, who is now contesting again from the seat apart from Konni in Pathanamthitta district.

BJP had also roped in many know personalities like 'Metro Man' E Sreedharan, who is contesting from Palakkad. He has been eveninformally projected as Chief Minister candidate.

This election also witnessed communal factors being openly played up by the parties. While BJP and Congress tried to corner LDF over its stand on Sabarimala women entry issue, the general secretary of Nair Service Society, a forum of the prominent Hindu Nair community in Kerala, Sukumaran Nair, stated during the opening hours of the polling
that protests of devotees was still prevailing and he felt that people want a change in governance in Kerala.

This even forced Vijayan to swiftly make a damage control statement that "Sabarimala Ayyappa and all deities were with the LDF as the LDF government ensured the welfare of all sections of the society."

Vijayan also took a strong stand against Sangh Parivar and even termed Union Home Minister Amit Shah as 'epitome of communalism', which could be considered as a strategy to woo the minority vote banks.

Though the Christian vote banks of Kerala were generally considered as pro-Congress vote banks, this time the LDF hopes to get a considerable slice of the Christian vote banks by having Kerala Congress (M) led by Jose K Mani along with it and also with the rapport that Vijayan managed to make with the community leaders.

The Congress camps are heaving a sigh of relief that the pro-LDF wave that prevailed in the state during the initial days of the campaign faded toward the final days. Intensive campaigning by Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi seemed to have helped the UDF in a big wave. It is widely anticipated that if the Congress fails in Kerala this time, many Congress leaders in the state may jump over to the BJP.