Six months of box-office mayhem in India

January to June has been the worst two quarters for the cinema exhibition trade in India, and some have attributed the downslide to the lack of big budget releases across the country.

National award-winning actor-filmmaker Ananth Narayan Mahadevan quoted Oscar-winning actor, producer and narrator Morgan Freeman on Facebook, “Big budget movies can have big budget perks, and small budget movies have no perks, but what the driving force is, of course, is the script.” The post encapsulates a growing opinion that content is finally outscoring star power at the box-office.

A quick scan from January to June throws up several big-budget Bollywood disasters, including Bade Miyan Chote Miyan, Maidaan and Chandu Champion. “Even Fighter, Shaitaan and Kalki 2898 AD would not qualify as hits despite a domestic gross of Rs 200 crore, Rs 150 crore and Rs 500 crore (and still counting) respectively because of their budgets, with only 40 percent of the earnings coming to the producer. Semi-hits and average grossers are meaningless terms. A film is either a hit or a flop, and the only two genuine hits in the first half of 2024 are Munjya and Article 370 which have more than doubled their Rs 30 crore budget,” says trade analyst Narendra Gupta.

Gupta points out that even content-driven films like Laapataa Ladies and Srikanth were unable to bring crowds to the theatres because with just a two-month OTT embargo, many preferred to watch them at home. “For the industry to survive, the embargo must be extended to six months. Also, like Ajay Devgn moved Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha from April because it was coming too close to ‘Maidaan’, actors like Rajkummar Rao (Srikanth and Mr & Mrs Mahi) and Akshay Kumar (Bade Miyan Chote Miyan, Sarfira, Khel Khel Mein and Skyforce) need to space out their releases to prevent overkill,” he advises.

The scenario is equally dismal for Tamil and Telugu  cinema with biggies like Nagarjuna’s Naa Sami Ranga, Mahesh Babu’s Guntur Karam, Ravi Teja’s Eagle, Dhanush’s Captain Miller and Sivakarthikeyan’s Ayalaan coming a cropper. Only the Telugu superhero film, HanuMan, has done extremely well. “Malayalam cinema continues to thrive with Aavesham, Manjummel Boys, Varshangalkku Shesham, Bramayugam, Abraham Ozler, Premalu and The Goat Life making cash counters jingle because of strong content and a dedicated cinema-going audience,” Gupta explains.

Kannada cinema saw some good content-driven films like Blink, Shakhahaari, Photo, Moorane Krishnappa, Chilli Chicken and Shivamma, but they did not translate into big numbers at the box-office. Even Yogaraj Bhat’s Karataka Damanaka, Hombale Films’s Yuva and Dhananjaya starrer Kotee failed to make a mark. 

Acknowledging that this has been the worst two quarters for the cinema exhibition trade in India, Amit Sharma, MD, Miraj Entertainment, attributes the downslide to the lack of big budget releases across the country. “It could be because of the national elections or because films like Kalki 2898 AD were not ready in time,” he surmises, quick to add that whenever there has been a medium-budget film with reasonably good content, like Shahid Kapoor’s sci-fi rom-com Tere Baaton Mein Aisa Uljha Jiya, the political action-thriller Article 370 or even a horror comedy, Munjya, the numbers were encouraging.

Celebrating the success of Munjya, its director Aditya Sarpotdar reasons that when a film with mostly newcomers does a business of Rs 100 crore, you know the script and genre have taken it beyond star power. “Our audience is largely families with kids who come to the theatres looking for laughs, scares and a collective experience as a unit which Munjya promised and delivered. It’s important to have an intriguing and captivating story since most Hindi films are so predictable that the audience loses interest halfway,” he explains.

According to Sarpotdar, what worked for the fourth film in the Maddock horror universe after Stree, Roohi and Bhediya, is that the narrative grew out of Indian folklore, with an attractive central character who lives on to spin a sequel or pop up in other films in the horror-verse. “Munjya’s success has given me the courage to follow my style of storytelling and the industry the confidence to back new talent,” he avers. 

This Friday, his Kakuda, featuring Sonakshi Sinha, Riteish Deshmukh and Saqib Saleem, started streaming on Zee5. The director Aditya Sorpatdar is also working on Vampires of Vijay Nagar, a romantic horror comedy with Ayushmann Khurrana and Rashmika Mandana. While agreeing that known faces can help a film open big, he adds that this is no longer the only prerequisite. “You need stars to pull in crowds for big-scale films, but even for them, it’s the combination of big names and a good story that wins the box-office,” he reiterates Freeman’s words.                  

Mahadevan agrees that cost-effective films with good stories have a better chance of breaking even and making a profit because content doesn’t demand budget, only creativity and visualisation. However, he admits corporate studios and big funders are still not convinced they are safe bets. “Also, India’s 144 crore population is too segregated in its viewing choices,” he explains, recalling how after the backlash he got for Devi, Satyajit Ray had called our audience at large “backward” and “unsophisticated”, “exposed to commercial Hindi cinema more than anything else”. Mahadevan rues that not much has changed since 1960 with no-brainers still ruling the box-office. “But that didn’t stop Ray from making the films he wanted, it won’t stop us,” he asserts.

Meanwhile, Sharma is excited about the next six-month slate, with a number of big releases, starting with Sarfira and Indian 2 this Friday, Bad Newz on July 19, Deadpool & Wolverine on July 26 and Stree 2 on Independence Day. “In September, there’s Vijay’s G.O.A.T and Jr NTR’s Devara. On October 10, Suriya’s Kanguva will clash with Alia Bhatt’s Jigra while Singham 3 and Bhool Bhulaiya 3 take the Diwali date. December is exciting too with Pushpa 2: The Rule and Mufasa: The Lion King, the biggest Hollywood release of 2024. The first two quarters were worse than the pandemic, but the next two could turn the tide,” he signs off optimistically.