Why India should target net-zero by '47

India’s current climate strategy is to target net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2070. We instead make the case for an accelerated schedule to achieve net zero by the country’s 100th birthday in 2047, which will constitute a quadruple win for the economy, human health, the environment, and India’s geopolitical interests. Contrariwise, India’s economic ambitions will not be well-served by being an environmental laggard.

Our way of life is dependent on fossil fuels. Transitioning away from fossil fuels in a quarter century will be a transformative change with its share of challenges—technological, societal, and economic. We argue, however, that the compounding benefits make the investment compelling.

India contributes 10 per cent of global emissions. Its unique GHG profile consists of carbon dioxide (48 per cent), methane (47 per cent), and nitrous oxide (5 per cent). It is not widely understood that nearly half the emissions are due to methane, a dangerous heat-trapping gas. The top two sectors, agriculture and electricity, comprise 64 per cent of emissions, with agriculture contributing most of this methane.

The earth has already warmed 1.2 degrees Celsius and has a diminishing carbon budget remaining to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Exceeding the budget will result in rising seas, extreme weather, soaring heat, failing crops, climate-induced migration, forest fires, biodiversity loss, ocean acidification, and worse. We will also be in danger of triggering climate tipping points in which certain natural balances are irreversibly destroyed. The worst global impacts of climate change cannot be staved off without India’s acceleration to net zero.

We believe India can achieve net zero by 2047, provided there is alignment and buy-in from top to bottom. India has favourable demographics, scientific prowess, an increasingly STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) educated and digital society, an outstanding startup and innovation ecosystem, and the demonstrated ability to tackle grand challenges. The country that delivered 2.6 billion Covid19 vaccines, landed a lunar probe, and rose to second in the world in smart phone manufacturing can take on such a challenge.

We propose a 3-phase plan to achieve net zero by 2047. The agricultural and power segments will be emphasized in Phase 1, from now until 2030. Importantly, 42 per cent of Indian employment is on farms, which are typically small and financially strapped. We call on experts to fashion an agricultural win-win campaign whereby rice yield and cattle productivity are increased, the use of resources like water, seeds, and fertilisers is reduced, precision agriculture and tillage are practiced, agrivoltaics take hold, and methane is sharply curtailed. In the electricity sector, we must accelerate investments in wind, solar, energy storage, transmission build-out, and smart grids.

In Phase 2 (2030–2040), emphasis will fall on electromobility, electrification of building energy use, and partial progress in construction, manufacturing, and industrial processes.

In Phase 3 (2040–2047), the “hard-to-abate” sectors like cement, steel, aviation, and shipping will be tackled, for which R&D needs to begin now.

Why should we make this effort in the first place? The most important reason is to grow India’s economy and create jobs for a growing middle class. Studies have estimated that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow to $26 trillion by 2047, making it the third-largest economy behind China and the US. For this to be realised, cleantech must evolve into a hyper-growth sector that creates millions of high-quality jobs and boosts exports. An additional investment of $3.4 trillion, or 1% of GDP between now and 2047, would be required to accelerate net zero through a combination of private investment, public money, and international climate finance.

Air pollution reduction will lead to concomitant health and productivity benefits. Not relying on foreign supplies of crude oil or liquefied natural gas will conserve foreign exchange and insulate India from geopolitical externalities like regional conflicts. Accelerating net zero will also provide the perfect milieu to implement a just transition whereby economic benefits and access to abundant clean energy are prioritised for those who are marginalised. Thus, we estimate that the return on investment would be tenfold, taking into account job creation in excess of losses in the fossil fuel sector, health benefits, productivity, balance of trade, and mitigation of climate adaptation spending.

Accelerating net zero is much more than a climate imperative. While these plans require investment, the compounding benefits are significant. In subsequent articles, we explore whether acceleration of net zero to 2047 is achieveable, what kind of investment is required, and what returns we can expect. Thoughtful actions today can lay a strong foundation for the coming transformation and help India on a strategic path to being a global leader.

(Visweswariah is VP, cure100.org, and Muralidharan is an R&D specialist, IIT Madras)

(This is the first in a series of seven articles on climate change and net-zero)