<p>The 2021 southwest monsoon season may end up on the “lower side of the normal” due to a sharp rainfall deficiency seen in August, India Meteorological Department said on Wednesday, admitting its failure to predict the shortfall in Gujarat, Odisha and along the west coast.</p>.<p>The rainfall averaged over the country as a whole in September is most likely to be “above normal”, which means more than 110% of the average September rainfall of 170 mm.</p>.<p>The bountiful September will partially make up for the 9% shortfall in August. But attaining the past forecast of 101% of average rainfall for the entire season is out of the question. The IMD expects a subdued monsoon season where the rainfall might be around 96% of the average.</p>.<p>The downgrading is due to a deficient August that witnessed a shortage of more than 39% in central India, 31% in northwest India and 10% in the southern peninsula. As a result, the August deficiency for the country stood at 24% resulting in a cumulative (June to August) shortfall of 9% for the country despite decent rainfall in June and July.</p>.<p>"We could not pick up the magnitude of deficiency in August particularly in states like Odisha (29% shortfall now) and Gujarat (47%). The forecast was alright till the second week of August, after which it started deviating,” M Mahapatra, IMD director general said at a press conference here. At one point, Odisha had a 55% shortage, but the situation improved.</p>.<p>The southwest monsoon is the lifeblood of India's trillion-dollar economy on the basis of which the country hopes to record good farm productivity to alleviate some of the economic pain caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.</p>.<p>Mahapatra, however, did not rule out the possibility of crop damage in September due to heavy rain but conceded that the IMD could not identify the area where such damage would happen.</p>.<p>The IMD chief cited a number of local and global weather phenomena such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Madden Julian Oscillation and a lesser number of typhoons in the western Pacific that had a role in lowering the precipitation in India.</p>.<p>The list doesn’t include the dreaded El Nino – the unusal rise of temperature in the Pacific that plays havoc with the weather system around the world.</p>
<p>The 2021 southwest monsoon season may end up on the “lower side of the normal” due to a sharp rainfall deficiency seen in August, India Meteorological Department said on Wednesday, admitting its failure to predict the shortfall in Gujarat, Odisha and along the west coast.</p>.<p>The rainfall averaged over the country as a whole in September is most likely to be “above normal”, which means more than 110% of the average September rainfall of 170 mm.</p>.<p>The bountiful September will partially make up for the 9% shortfall in August. But attaining the past forecast of 101% of average rainfall for the entire season is out of the question. The IMD expects a subdued monsoon season where the rainfall might be around 96% of the average.</p>.<p>The downgrading is due to a deficient August that witnessed a shortage of more than 39% in central India, 31% in northwest India and 10% in the southern peninsula. As a result, the August deficiency for the country stood at 24% resulting in a cumulative (June to August) shortfall of 9% for the country despite decent rainfall in June and July.</p>.<p>"We could not pick up the magnitude of deficiency in August particularly in states like Odisha (29% shortfall now) and Gujarat (47%). The forecast was alright till the second week of August, after which it started deviating,” M Mahapatra, IMD director general said at a press conference here. At one point, Odisha had a 55% shortage, but the situation improved.</p>.<p>The southwest monsoon is the lifeblood of India's trillion-dollar economy on the basis of which the country hopes to record good farm productivity to alleviate some of the economic pain caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.</p>.<p>Mahapatra, however, did not rule out the possibility of crop damage in September due to heavy rain but conceded that the IMD could not identify the area where such damage would happen.</p>.<p>The IMD chief cited a number of local and global weather phenomena such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Madden Julian Oscillation and a lesser number of typhoons in the western Pacific that had a role in lowering the precipitation in India.</p>.<p>The list doesn’t include the dreaded El Nino – the unusal rise of temperature in the Pacific that plays havoc with the weather system around the world.</p>
