<p id="thickbox_headline">India is likely to witness one million active Covid-19 cases by August 15 when the tricolour will be unfurled at the Red Fort.</p>.<p>Two sets of mathematical modelling studies by Indian researchers hint at 10 lakh active cases by the Independence Day as the pandemic has begun to spread far and wide in the areas that reported low numbers so far.</p>.<p><strong><a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/national/coronavirus-news-live-updates-west-bengal-records-2261-fresh-covid-19-cases-864013.html">Follow latest updates on the Covid-19 pandemic here</a></strong></p>.<p>“If the present trend holds, we will breach 1 million active cases around August 15,” Sitabhra Sinha, a senior researcher at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai told <em>DH</em>.</p>.<p>Sinha’s forecast is based on a mathematical model that he was running for months to look at the Covid-19 trends all over the country. The latest run is for the July 11-20 period.</p>.<p>Going by the ICMR’s National Institute of Epidemiology, Chennai India currently has 4.26 lakh active cases.</p>.<p>As per Sinha’s model, the national R value at the moment stands at 1.19 – a drop from the R value of 1.9 in April.</p>.<p>Reproduction number or R is the number of persons, one infected person can spread the infection. An R value of 1.9 means that 10 infected persons will on average cause 19 new infections whereas an R value of 1.19 means 10 infected persons can cause 12 new cases.</p>.<p>“If containment measures stay at current levels then we are likely to reach close to 100,000 active cases by August 15,” said Dibyendu Nandi, a physicist at the Indian Institute of Science, Education and Research, Kolkata who leads a team of researchers operating a Covid-19 disease tracking model.</p>.<p>While a lower R value is good news from a national perspective, state-wise estimation of the trends reveals a different story altogether.</p>.<p>It shows the outbreak is increasing steeply in Bihar (R: 1.62) and the three southern states Kerala (1.44), Karnataka (1.41) and Andhra Pradesh (1.51). The disease curve is moving north in West Bengal (1.38) and Uttar Pradesh (1.28) too.</p>.<p>Delhi is the only state with a sub-exponential growth rate (0.85) but there are doubts on the Delhi data due to widespread use of the rapid antigen test that has poor accuracy.</p>.<p>Among the big cities, Bengaluru is the worst with R value of 1.4 followed by Kolkata (1.3). For Mumbai and Chennai, the value is close to 1.</p>
<p id="thickbox_headline">India is likely to witness one million active Covid-19 cases by August 15 when the tricolour will be unfurled at the Red Fort.</p>.<p>Two sets of mathematical modelling studies by Indian researchers hint at 10 lakh active cases by the Independence Day as the pandemic has begun to spread far and wide in the areas that reported low numbers so far.</p>.<p><strong><a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/national/coronavirus-news-live-updates-west-bengal-records-2261-fresh-covid-19-cases-864013.html">Follow latest updates on the Covid-19 pandemic here</a></strong></p>.<p>“If the present trend holds, we will breach 1 million active cases around August 15,” Sitabhra Sinha, a senior researcher at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai told <em>DH</em>.</p>.<p>Sinha’s forecast is based on a mathematical model that he was running for months to look at the Covid-19 trends all over the country. The latest run is for the July 11-20 period.</p>.<p>Going by the ICMR’s National Institute of Epidemiology, Chennai India currently has 4.26 lakh active cases.</p>.<p>As per Sinha’s model, the national R value at the moment stands at 1.19 – a drop from the R value of 1.9 in April.</p>.<p>Reproduction number or R is the number of persons, one infected person can spread the infection. An R value of 1.9 means that 10 infected persons will on average cause 19 new infections whereas an R value of 1.19 means 10 infected persons can cause 12 new cases.</p>.<p>“If containment measures stay at current levels then we are likely to reach close to 100,000 active cases by August 15,” said Dibyendu Nandi, a physicist at the Indian Institute of Science, Education and Research, Kolkata who leads a team of researchers operating a Covid-19 disease tracking model.</p>.<p>While a lower R value is good news from a national perspective, state-wise estimation of the trends reveals a different story altogether.</p>.<p>It shows the outbreak is increasing steeply in Bihar (R: 1.62) and the three southern states Kerala (1.44), Karnataka (1.41) and Andhra Pradesh (1.51). The disease curve is moving north in West Bengal (1.38) and Uttar Pradesh (1.28) too.</p>.<p>Delhi is the only state with a sub-exponential growth rate (0.85) but there are doubts on the Delhi data due to widespread use of the rapid antigen test that has poor accuracy.</p>.<p>Among the big cities, Bengaluru is the worst with R value of 1.4 followed by Kolkata (1.3). For Mumbai and Chennai, the value is close to 1.</p>
