JD(U)'s bypoll defeat and Nitish's national ambition

Nitish did not name Modi but made an oblique reference to the PM in a message to his allies that 'if challenged properly and unitedly, the BJP is not unbeatable'

On August 10, after taking the oath of office after forming the government in alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal and others, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar said, "I don't nurse any prime ministerial ambition. But I will work to bring under one umbrella all political parties inimical to the BJP." In the same breath, he said, "Will the one who came to power in 2019 remain at the helm in 2024?"

Nitish did not name Narendra Modi but made an oblique reference to the PM in a message to his allies that "if challenged properly and unitedly, the BJP is not unbeatable."

Six months later, the BJP has shown twice in the Bihar bypolls that Nitish's maths is wrong. The BJP, pitted against the combined might of seven political parties of the Mahagatbandhan, comprising the JD (U), RJD, Congress, CPI, CPM, CPI-ML and Jitan Ram Manjhi's HAM (Hindustan Awam Morcha), won the Kurhani Assembly bypoll. This was BJP's second win in a bypoll in Bihar in less than two months. It won the Gopalganj seat in October while losing Mokama to the RJD.

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The Kurhani bypoll was the first litmus test for Nitish ever since he dumped the NDA and joined hands with Grand Alliance since it was the JD(U) which was in direct contest with the BJP. However, the defeat of the JD (U) nominee is a setback for Mahagatbandhan and Nitish.

"Nitish's popularity has been on a downhill since 2010 (when he won not two-third or three-fourth, but a four-fifth majority, a rare feat). In the 2020 Assembly polls, his party could win only 43 seats out of 243 constituencies. Today he cannot win even a bypoll in a state where he has been the CM since 2005. The reason is simple: Nitish has lost his credibility as a leader by making numerous U-turns in the last decade. Besides, his mantra of 'good governance' and 'establishing the rule of law' has also gone for a toss," says noted political commentator Pramod Mukesh.

To buttress his point, Mukesh cited how Nitish tried to reach out to the TRS and INLD, besides the Congress, but his plan to forge unity among the major opposition parties came a cropper as no one threw their weight behind him. "From the TRS meet to INLD rally in Haryana, it was evident that no one was ready to trust Nitish, except the RJD, which has to ride piggyback on him if Tejashwi Yadav has to take over the mantle of Bihar eventually," the social scientist said.

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While BJP leaders, particularly Rajya Sabha MP Sushil Modi, have demanded that Nitish quit after the poll debacle, voices within the RJD want Tejashwi to take over the reins "as Nitish's popularity is on the wane and governance has taken a backseat".

Unwritten pact

There is an unwritten agreement between Nitish, the defacto JD(U) chief, and RJD president Lalu Prasad that Nitish will eventually play an important role in national politics. Tejashwi will be groomed as deputy CM to take over Bihar's mantle on the eve of the Lok Sabha elections.

"Instead of focussing on Bihar's development (like improving education and healthcare sector, and not only building roads and bridges), Nitish is still nursing his undeclared national ambition. In the process, governance in Bihar has suffered. He should learn from his Odisha counterpart, Naveen Patnaik, and focus on his state instead of dreaming of replacing Narendra Modi someday. Otherwise, his party will be decimated," said veteran political commentator Ajay Kumar

Merger plan

There is much speculation in Bihar that the JD(U) will eventually be merged with the RJD in the coming days, as the RJD, during its national meet held recently, amended its party constitution in this regard.

"The merger talks are not wide off the mark. It may occur on the eve of the Lok Sabha elections for two reasons. First, it will present a united Janata Parivar, or whatever the new name of the party be, and give much leeway to Nitish by asking him to lead such a party at the national level. Secondly, by that time, Lalu Prasad, already recuperating from his illness, will be on the ground, stitching new alliances and forging unity among the faction-ridden Opposition. But the moot point is how credible Nitish will be by the time 2024 Lok Sabha polls are announced," the social scientist argued.

(Abhay Kumar is a Patna-based senior journalist)