Naga peace process: Misplaced optimism?

The much-touted Naga Framework Agreement of 2015 between the Government of India and the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCM-IM) has come a cropper with the change of interlocuters - each had their own idea of what to get out of the deal without losing face. For those not involved in the interlocution, the deal signalled hope that things would be resolved under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Now, even Modi must have realised how fraught the process is despite his chest-thumping habit.
For one, the NSCN (IM) is led by an old war horse used to playing mind games with the Indian Intelligence spooks. Second, it is still unclear if the NSCN(IM) really wants a solution. Whatever solution is arrived at is unlikely to win concessions for the Naga people of Manipur unless some autonomy is granted to them by way of a territorial council along the lines of the Bodo Territorial Council with financial and other powers for the development of the Naga inhabited hill areas of Manipur. But if the Nagas are granted that concession, then what about the other Kuki-Chin tribes who also have their own rebel outfits? Will the Centre then not have to deal with these other ethnic groups too? And where will all this end in a region with some 328 ethnic groups?

When two parties in conflict sign a peace deal, there are ground rules which both have to observe. The warring groups are not supposed to use arms against each other. There is a ceasefire monitoring agency headed by uniformed personnel to ensure that the ground rules are not violated. In the case of Nagaland, the ceasefire monitoring agency is in a lull because the NSCN(IM) cadres are moving around with arms and continue with their extortion in broad daylight much to the chagrin of the victims who run businesses and start-ups that need financial and other support. Road projects and other development activities too are stalled because of extortion. And so embedded is this culture in Nagaland that at one time, civil society rose as one to tell the armed insurgents to come under one umbrella and make that one tax, since it had become impossible for any business to survive if a person has to pay 5 or 6 different groups or more. But this is easier said than done. The people of Nagaland have been traumatised into submission. They have lost the will and the energy to speak up for themselves. The government they elected is more keen on appeasing the NSCN(IM) because they rely on the outfit for their political survival. This collusion is not lost on the people of Nagaland and on those who observe the political drama of Nagaland.

Read Special Story: Cry for AFSPA repeal gets louder

On realising that the so-called Naga peace process was not gaining traction because of the untenable demands of the NSCN(IM) for a separate flag and a separate constitution, the Naga National Political Groups (NNPGs) and the Nagaland Gaonbura Association which includes all the tribes of Nagaland, wrote several petitions to Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah to arrive at a conclusion on the terms already agreed upon and to try and resolve the other contentious issues through peaceful means. There was no response from the Centre. Naturally, people are dejected that an appeal from those without arms is being spurned while pandering to those carrying arms.

Also, why privilege one insurgent outfit over the people of Nagaland who have borne with the gun culture for decades and many of whom have lost their loved ones at the hands of both state and non-state forces. Another question raised by an officer who had served in Nagaland is why the NSCN(IM) enjoys such unfettered space in its headquarters at Mt Hebron where the army is not allowed to go anywhere near and new recruitments happen every year. It almost seems as if the Indian state and the NSCN(IM) are both playing mind games even while ordinary citizens are caught in the crossfire. This is very unfortunate and one often wonders what counter-insurgency doctrine is being followed to deal with the NSCN(IM).

That said, the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) enacted by Lord Linlithgow in 1942 was intended to keep a leash on Indians participating in the Quit India movement then. That the amended Act would then be applied by the very same people who were actually part of the Independence movement to control a resistance movement by a people whose hearts and minds they had failed to win and who were seen as replacing one colonial power with another, shows the mindset of Nehru et al at the time. There was not a grain of concern that the Act could and would be abused by security forces against not just the armed rebels but also against civilian “suspected” to be insurgents/terrorists/extremists. And that in over 60 years the Indian state could not come up with a specially trained counter-insurgency force to deal with internal security just goes to show that there is no application of mind on issues plaguing the North East – a region still seen as occupied by people who are racially and culturally different from the classic mainstream Indian culture and feature.

Also read: ‘AFSPA is only an enabling law in a Disturbed Area’

There is however another issue that is not discussed and that is the role of the state governments of the North East. The chief ministers of these states are so inept in dealing with internal security. They have abused the police force to the point of tutoring them to become the ‘rulers’ with a slavish mentality. Police have become part of the corrupt system that militates against the very idea of governance, leave alone good governance. Today, the police in states like Meghalaya facilitate illegal mining and transportation of coal instead of arresting the law breakers. The morale of the police in this region is so low that they cannot be expected to maintain internal security. Hence, it would have been pragmatic for the Indian state to raise a rapid action, counter-insurgency force to deal with internal rebellions without needing to drag in the army. A decision taken 60 years ago cannot continue to remain if it has outlived its course.

A point needs to be made about calling the bluff of the chief ministers of this region. They may now be clamouring to revoke AFSPA but whenever insurgent attacks escalate by way of a bomb blast that kills several unarmed civilians, the CMs are quick call Delhi and request for the armed forces to assist the state police. Naturally this warrants declaration of a state or part of it as a disturbed area followed by the application of AFSPA. Hence the states cannot absolve themselves of culpability and collusion.

To know how ineffective policing in the North East is, Manipur is serves as a classic example. It has the lowest conviction rate, yet the state has a high number of fake encounter cases – 1528 as of 2012. There are as many as 55,000 security forces in Manipur making it the highest civilian to security personnel ratio. Add to that another 627 policemen for every one lakh people and that makes Manipur a police state. Yet law and order is a pipe dream. Hence the security forces continue to be deployed here and with that the AFSPA as a natural baggage.

Insurgency requires political patronage to survive. Politicians need militants to help win elections. It’s a symbiotic relationship. Take away that political patronage and support from the civilian population; put in place a counter-insurgency force that means business; cut the sources of funding of militants; empower citizens to question bad governance and corruption and insurgency will have no legs to stand on.

(The writer is Editor, Shillong Times)

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