No conclusive research on swing seats in Rajasthan, claims expert

"Personal popularity of leaders matters and those seats become the respective party’s strongholds," said Dr Sanjay Lodha.

Jaipur: Rajasthan has been known to swing between the two major parties Congress and BJP since 1993. Other than stronghold constituencies of the two major parties, there are said to be certain swing seats that alternate between the two parties. However, experts say there is no conclusive research yet on swing seats.

BJP is strong in at least 60 seats across the state, say poll observers. Like Bali constituency in Pali district, which BJP has won the last six times from 1993 till 2018. Former Vice President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat won the seat in 1993 and 1998 and thereafter BJP’s Pushpendra Singh Ranawat has been winning since the last four elections. This time BJP has again nominated Ranawat from Bali.

Similarly BJP has been winning Pali seat for the last five elections. BJP’s Gyan Chand Parakh has been winning here since 1998. This time too BJP has renominated him.

BJP is also said to be strong in Hadoti region, which has 17 seats. Despite the Congress wave in 2018, BJP managed to retain 10 seats, leaving only seven for the Congress. Vasundhara Raje, who is a favourite in the Jhalarapatan seat, has been winning it consistently since the 2003 elections.

Similarly, Congress is said to be winning at least 21 seats for the past several elections. Like the Sardarpura seat in Jodhpur, which is Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s constituency. He has been winning it since 2003.

Even Bari in Dholpur district, which has been won by Giriraj Singh Malinga in the past three elections since 2008. He won in 2013 despite a huge BJP wave. But, after Congress denied him a ticket this time over charges of assaulting a Dalit engineer, he joined BJP and has been fielded from Bari as he remains an influential leader in eastern Rajasthan.

If Malinga wins from Bari, then it would indicate that voters look at the candidate rather than the party, say poll observers.

Other than these 81 seats out of the total 200, the rest 119 seats swing between the two major parties, smaller parties and Independents, which may have a bearing on the poll results. Of these 119 seats, at least 47 seats have alternated between Congress and BJP in the last three elections and may hold the key to the formation of government.

However, experts say there is no proper research or scientific basis to back this claim. Dr Sanjay Lodha, Rajasthan state coordinator, Lokniti-CSDS, told Deccan Herald: “No conclusive research has been done on swing seats yet. These are political myths. Sometimes seats alternate between the major parties coincidently and that cannot be taken as the basis for terming the seats as swing and decisive.”

He said there are seven seats, which Congress has won in the last three elections in 2008, 2013 and 2018. Despite the BJP wave in 2013, Congress managed to retain these seven seats.

BJP, on the other hand, has been winning at least 38-40 seats in the past three elections, despite Congress coming into power in 2008 and 2018.

Dr Lodha added seats like Sardarpura and Jhalarapatan are being won again and again because of charismatic leaders. “Both Gehlot and Raje are popular leaders, so people vote looking at them and not at the party. The personal popularity of leaders matters. Later these seats became the respective party’s strongholds.”

There are around 25 seats, which BJP won in 2008 and 2013 but lost to Congress in 2018.

In the last 2018 Assembly elections, there were at least 29 seats where the margin of difference was less than three percent. Out of the 29 seats, 14 were won by BJP, 12 by Cong, and three seats by Independents. Out of the total 26 won between BJP and Congress, the victory margin was less than 1000 votes in at least nine seats. It was less than 2000 votes in about seven seats. The victory margin was less than 3000 in four seats and less than 4000 in nine seats.

Like in Asind seat in Bhilwara district, BJP’s Jabbar Singh Sankhala won by just 154 votes. Congress won this seat last in 1990. Consistently won by BJP, it was wrested by an Independent Hangami Lal Mewara in 2003. This time Congress has given the ticket to Mewara.

Also among the narrow-margin winners was BJP’s senior leader and chief of Opposition in the Vidhan Sabha, Rajendra Rathore. He won by a narrow margin of 1850 votes.

Meanwhile, BJP has been decreasing the gap in the vote share with Congress every five years. In 1998, when Congress won with 153 seats and BJP won 33, the difference in the vote share was 11.8%. In 2008, when Congress won with 96 seats and BJP got 78, the difference in vote share was 2.5 per cent. In 2018, when Congress won with 99 seats and BJP got 73, the difference in the vote share between the two parties was a mere 0.5 per cent.

In 2023, there is a direct contest between BJP and Congress in 108 seats, three-cornered fights in at least 80 seats, and multi-cornered fights in 11 seats. The fight is over Congress’s welfare measures and BJP’s pitch on corruption, paper leaks and women's security.

Dr Lodha says: “Gehlot’s welfarism did benefit people as we found in our surveys. At least three-fourths of our respondents said they got the benefits this time, unlike previous years when not even one-fourth got benefits. The most beneficial are Chiranjeevi health insurance, Annapurna food packets, subsidised gas cylinders, and 100 units of free electricity. When we asked about Central welfare schemes, they said they have not benefitted from Ayushman Bharat or PM Awas Yojana. So the results of this election would be a litmus test for welfarism. If Congress fails to win, then perhaps identity politics, religion, caste, polarisation would hold the key to the future strategies of political parties."

Rajasthan voted on November 25. The results is slated to be declared on December 3.