Representation beyond numbers: Southern demand

Will lower population numbers and demographic dividends impact how the voices of southern states are heard at the Centre?

Chennai: Though they stand on either side of the political spectrum, the chief ministers of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu — N Chandrababu Naidu and M K Stalin — now find themselves on the “same page” after having pitched the idea of “large families”. They have stirred the political pot over the vexatious delimitation issue that has brought to focus, once again, the North-South political divide.

Stalin asked why people should stick to smaller families when population figures are considered the only criteria to derive the number of Lok Sabha seats allotted to states, as concerns loom large over delimitation, due in 2026 when the 25-year extension for freezing of seats at 543 expires.

This exercise, if based on the latest Census figures that are yet to be generated, would result in a reduction in the South's representation in Parliament, and an increase in seats for the North.

Naidu’s point is that young couples should give up on family planning and have more children to maintain the demographic dividend beyond the 2040s, when South India will have an ageing population. This could lead to governments and families spending more on healthcare, evolving urban agglomerations and other needs. The effect of climate change is already draining a good part of the financial resources of states south of the Vindhyas.

The statements by the two CMs reflect the disappointment of the political class in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Telangana, the states are being “penalised” for effectively controlling the population and bringing in economic and social reforms, while the North, which has not performed as well in the exercise, is being “rewarded” financially and politically.

As an interim measure, the southern states want the “present ratio” of Parliament and Assembly constituencies in states, which were fixed based on the 1971 Census to continue till all states follow population control measures rigorously.

The feeling of being “penalised” is not related to delimitation alone, but extends to the devolution of central taxes, which has been on the downslide in successive Finance Commissions.

Karnataka has been vociferous in raising its voice against the “gross injustice” meted out to it in devolution of taxes by attempting to convert its protest into a people’s movement, while Kerala hosted a conclave of finance ministers of Opposition-ruled states to underline fiscal problems faced by them.

Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party and Stalin’s Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam are key constituents of the ruling NDA and the I.N.D.I.A. Alliance, which forms part of the Opposition, respectively. Their statements are certain to ring alarm bells in the corridors of power in New Delhi and should prompt administrators to carefully address the discontent that has been brewing in South India for some time now.

Experiences from the rest of the world show that population reversion is not a solution and has not been successful in many countries, including China.

Rigorous implementation

Population is on the decline across the country, with the fertility ratio remaining above the 2.1 threshold only in three states — Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Jharkhand. However, if the delimitation exercise is conducted in 2026 or after the latest Census figures are generated, it is sure to increase the political representation of North India while the South will witness a significant dip.

It is estimated that South India will lose about 25 seats, while the North might gain over 30 seats in total.

With just 130 seats across the five states and Puducherry, the South already feels it is not able to play a role in the government formation even if it votes en bloc.

Even if the number of Parliament seats is increased, the South is likely to get a raw deal, as the number of seats for northern states will witness an exponential increase, while their population numbers will go up only marginally.

For instance, the population of Bihar and Tamil Nadu was almost the same in 1971, as the states got 40 and 39 Lok Sabha seats respectively.

But in 2024, Bihar’s population will be over 1.5 times more than Tamil Nadu’s, at 13 crore and 7.71 crore respectively. If population is used as the sole criterion to fix the number of seats, Tamil Nadu is sure to feel dejected and ponder why it diligently followed the rules.

Feasibility of solutions

South Indian states are some of the main engines of growth in India, with investments pouring into the region. The general feeling is that these engines should be supported, not suffocated.

Former Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian had, in January this year, opined that southern states should get a “slightly larger portion” of funds from the Centre through a “recorrection” in the fiscal range to avoid “disaffection” from growing, especially if the political representation of these states changes post the delimitation exercise.

In this context, it becomes imperative for southern states to push for alternative ways to determine the number of seats other than population figures, and form a federation among themselves to secure their rights from the Union Government.

Predicting that the reaction of southern states will be “sharp” if the delimitation becomes “more adverse than it is already”, development economist Santosh Mehrotra views the remarks of Stalin and Naidu as the “tip of the iceberg.”

“The Delimitation Commission, whenever it comes into existence, must study how countries of the world have considered these kinds of shifts in demographics. There are ways of dealing with this issue in a way that it is not inequitable to the southern states,” Mehrotra, research fellow at the IZA Institute of Labour Economics in Germany, told DH.

Devolution of funds

Former bureaucrat and Lok Satta party chief Jayaprakash Narayan hopes there will not be many problems in the long term, as it is only a matter of time before all of India reaches the population stabilisation level, with fertility rates coming down even in Bihar, UP, and Jharkhand. He pointed out that not just southern states, but Odisha, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Punjab have also excelled in population control.

While giving “some weightage” to population, the new formula can also include an “irrevocable guarantee” that fundamental issues that affect states like language will not be unilaterally touched just because of the numbers, he added.

“We should evolve a mechanism to ensure that numbers in one part of the country don't affect the federal structure,” he said.

As far as the devolution of funds is concerned, Narayan said, Finance Commissions have now significantly altered the criteria for fund allocation, while making it clear that no state should create a situation wherein “poorer states” are denied funds.

On the extension of the freeze on the number of seats, Mehrotra feels since the divergence in population between the South and the North is going to remain for a “long time”, the prudent way for South Indian states to study the issue is by looking at examples elsewhere and drafting a joint response to the Union Government.

“We are the most diverse country in the world, and that diversity is now showing in economic and social indicators. When it comes to complex issues like delimitation, we should get more innovative than relying simply upon population as the main criteria,” he said.

Mehrotra also cautioned states like Tamil Nadu that their demographic dividend will end before 2040 and expressed the fear that Northern states won’t be able to control population growth, while South will stop growing as fast as earlier and will end up spending more on the ageing population and to offset the effects of climate change.

Narayan added that the South should take advantage of the “common market” and migrant workers that North India offers. There has to be a “give and take” in the larger interests of the country, he said, and asked the policymakers to find ways to increase human capacity, through skilling.

“One doesn’t have to worry about human capital as long as young people from other parts of the country are willing to migrate. People will come as long as there are opportunities, like our youth flying abroad. I think it's a dangerous thing to ask people to make more babies when an entire population is available. We can adequately skill the existing population,” Narayan said.

Mehrotra agreed with Narayan and asserted that more offspring is certainly not an option until the time India builds a better childcare system.

“We will never be able to convince young parents to have more children because they know we don’t have a childcare system. We shouldn’t live in a Fool’s Paradise,” he said.