The lotus has lost its bloom

In 2014, Narendra Modi assumed office with the slogan of “minimum government and maximum governance”. Given the stratospheric levels of corruption, political ineptitude and widespread policy paralysis, that had marked the second United Progressive Alliance government, it was hardly surprising that the Indian electorate reposed their faith in a leader who claimed that he was mostly, if not solely, responsible for the “Gujarat miracle”. Even foreign observers set aside their misgivings about the tragedy of Godhra as they entertained grand hopes of substantial economic reforms under Modi’s watch. Modi, in turn, basked in the glow of this adulation and promised that India would become a five trillion-dollar economy toward the middle of this decade.

Seven years since he entered office as the Prime Minister, Modi’s promise of sound governance and the attendant pledge of ushering in “achhe din” (good days”) have become will o’ the wisps. A series of colossal policy blunders and missteps now seem to be his stock in trade. The promise of an economically resurgent India that seemed imminent now appears to be little more than a chimera.

The policy lapses actually started in his first term in office. To begin with, his abrupt demonetisation policy of November 2016, ostensibly designed to flush out black money, proved to be mostly flawed and imposed much hardship on the most economically vulnerable. The very next year the much-needed Goods and Services Tax (GST) was rolled out with much fanfare but with little regard for proper implementation. Not surprisingly, it too proved quite costly for small firms and any number of humble retail enterprises. Amazingly enough, the electorate did not hold him and his government to account for both of these policy failures.

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Consequently, despite these two deeply faulty policy initiatives as well as faltering economic growth, Modi returned to office with an overwhelming majority in 2019. Once in office, he lost no time in ramming through at least two controversial measures through Parliament, the first being the abrogation of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution and the National Register of Citizens (NRC). Both these decisions, though reached in extraordinary haste and with little or no debate, proved to be popular with his electoral base even if they attracted varying degrees of domestic and international criticism. Modi and his associates ignored most internal criticism and fended off external censure invoking a familiar trope - these decisions were matters entirely within the purview of a sovereign state.

Even as it carried out these two dramatic policy shifts, his government continued to be sandbagged with the problem of anaemic economic growth. Against this backdrop, the Covid-19 virus reached India’s shores. As is well known, Modi resorted to a draconian national lockdown with a few hours’ notice and no viable plans assisting millions of migrant workers across the land who were left to their own devices. The lockdown, despite its human and economic consequences, did initially stem the spread of the deadly virus.

Medical experts

However, as the first wave was being contained, his government paid scant, if any, attention to medical experts who warned that a second wave could still materialise. Nor for that matter, did the government-mandated task force meet to formulate strategies to effectively suppress the dispersion of the virus. Worse still, intent on burnishing India’s international image, Modi chose to ship millions of doses of vaccines to both neighbouring countries as well as others afar. Little thought was given to starting a mass vaccination drive across the country, no effort was undertaken to rapidly produce and stockpile vaccines for home consumption, nor was an attempt made to mass produce potentially life-saving drugs such as Remdesivir.

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Given that for decades India has grossly underinvested in its public health infrastructure, spending less than 2% of its GDP annually, the government should have anticipated that the country’s rickety healthcare infrastructure could well collapse if a second surge were to materialise. Instead of taking minimal ameliorative steps to address this glaring lacuna Modi and his associates focused instead on the upcoming elections in Assam, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Puducherry. Worse still, as is well-known, it allowed the massive Kumbh Mela to proceed apace. In the meanwhile, any number of BJP stalwarts were allowed to peddle errant nonsense and quack cures ranging from using cow urine as a disinfectant to the ostensible prophylactic qualities of smearing cow dung.

The results of this policy inattention and ineptitude are now more than self-evident. Stories about hapless families being turned away from hospitals, of widespread oxygen shortages and of public parks being turned in crematoria are now replete in the Indian and foreign press. Faced with this barrage of bad news the government’s response seems to be straightforward: shoot the messenger. To that end, it has induced Facebook and Twitter from posting stories that are critical of its handling of this public health calamity.

Sadly, these efforts to cover up the myriad policy shortcomings will come to naught. Countries as disparate as Rumania and Uzbekistan have come to India’s assistance given the direness of the situation. Far from being a model of how to tackle a pandemic, the government has demonstrated that its response has been all but shambolic. Not surprisingly, governments across the world that had reposed considerable faith in Modi’s ability to move the country toward a prosperous future are beginning to entertain serious doubts about his leadership. These reassessments, no doubt, will undermine India’s aspirations to play a more significant role in coping with a range of challenges in global politics.

Also read: PM Modi owns India’s unfolding Covid-19 disaster

Faced with a significant challenge, albeit not of his own making, Modi’s government has abjectly failed to tackle the crisis forthrightly. Instead, as it flails about, it has sought scapegoats, blaming the citizenry for its supposed complacency, an especially virulent mutation of the virus and logistical problems beyond its purview. Consequently, as a host of foreign commentators have remarked, Modi’s fond hopes of transforming India into a “leading power” as his then Foreign Secretary (and now Minister of External Affairs) S Jaishankar had asserted at the 2015 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, now seems little more than a fatuous claim. The much-vaunted promises of sound governance and a renascent India that had been his hallmark when assuming office in 2014 now seem to be going up in the smoke of countless funeral pyres.

(The writer is a Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Indiana University, Bloomington. His most recent book, co-edited with Christopher Mason, is The Future of US-India Security Cooperation)