<p>As Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav launches his campaign for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Uttar Pradesh, which sends the largest contingent of MPs to the Parliament, is emerging as the Achilles heel for the Opposition amid efforts to forge a nationwide front against the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.</p>.<p>Earlier this week, the former UP CM rolled out his ‘rath’ from Lakhimpur Kheri, a constituency that became the epicentre of farmer’s agitation when local BJP MP Ajay Mishra’s son was accused of mowing down protesting farmers. A year later, in the 2022 Assembly polls, SP candidates lost in all eight Assembly constituencies in the district.</p>.<p>Addressing a party rally here on Tuesday, Akhilesh exhorted the SP workers to explore “what went wrong during the last UP polls when the Samajwadi Party got maximum votes but lost the elections.”</p>.<p><strong>Read | <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/samajwadi-party-announces-support-to-aap-over-central-ordinance-1225726.html" target="_blank">Samajwadi Party announces support to AAP over Central ordinance</a></strong></p>.<p>The answer to that query is wrapped in UP’s complex caste calculus and social matrix, which the ruling BJP has been able to successfully align to its advantage since 2014 by orchestrating counter-caste-mobilisations of minor backward communities against Mandal parties like SP and BSP.</p>.<p>A heady mix of Hindutva and social sector schemes proved to be the perfect boost to keep the BJP ahead of its rivals by close to 10 percentage points or more in terms of vote share in every UP election since 2014.</p>.<p>For an example, we can consider the permutations and combinations the SP has experimented with in the last four elections:</p>.<p>The 2014 LS polls witnessed a four-cornered fight between SP, BSP, BJP, and Congress. BJP and its allies won 72 out of 80 seats.</p>.<p>The SP struck a pre-poll alliance with Congress for the 2017 Assembly elections. BJP and its allies romped home by a three-fourth majority.</p>.<p>The SP then experimented by aligning with its sworn adversary, the Mayawati-led BSP in the last LS polls, but to no avail.</p>.<p>And finally, in the 2022 Assembly elections, SP tied up with sub-regional caste-based outfits to register its best-ever performance in terms of vote share. But the effort fell well short of what was needed to defeat the BJP.</p>.<p><strong>Read | <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/those-who-pledged-to-invest-in-up-are-untraceable-now-akhilesh-1225975.html" target="_blank">Those who pledged to invest in UP are untraceable now: Akhilesh</a></strong></p>.<p>“2024 would be no different as people will vote to elect the PM and not the CM of UP. SP has to first make it clear as to what it is planning to offer to the people in terms of policies and programs,” claimed BJP state vice-president Vijay Bahadur Pathak.</p>.<p>At Lakhimpur Kheri, Akhilesh Yadav reiterated the party’s demand to hold a caste census. That was also his calling card when he hit the campaign trail a year and a half back.</p>.<p>To reclaim UP, the Opposition in general and SP, in particular, may have to look beyond the conventional codes of caste mobilisation. And based on the current ground realities, offer alternative social-political and economic programmes to the electorate.</p>
<p>As Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav launches his campaign for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Uttar Pradesh, which sends the largest contingent of MPs to the Parliament, is emerging as the Achilles heel for the Opposition amid efforts to forge a nationwide front against the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.</p>.<p>Earlier this week, the former UP CM rolled out his ‘rath’ from Lakhimpur Kheri, a constituency that became the epicentre of farmer’s agitation when local BJP MP Ajay Mishra’s son was accused of mowing down protesting farmers. A year later, in the 2022 Assembly polls, SP candidates lost in all eight Assembly constituencies in the district.</p>.<p>Addressing a party rally here on Tuesday, Akhilesh exhorted the SP workers to explore “what went wrong during the last UP polls when the Samajwadi Party got maximum votes but lost the elections.”</p>.<p><strong>Read | <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/samajwadi-party-announces-support-to-aap-over-central-ordinance-1225726.html" target="_blank">Samajwadi Party announces support to AAP over Central ordinance</a></strong></p>.<p>The answer to that query is wrapped in UP’s complex caste calculus and social matrix, which the ruling BJP has been able to successfully align to its advantage since 2014 by orchestrating counter-caste-mobilisations of minor backward communities against Mandal parties like SP and BSP.</p>.<p>A heady mix of Hindutva and social sector schemes proved to be the perfect boost to keep the BJP ahead of its rivals by close to 10 percentage points or more in terms of vote share in every UP election since 2014.</p>.<p>For an example, we can consider the permutations and combinations the SP has experimented with in the last four elections:</p>.<p>The 2014 LS polls witnessed a four-cornered fight between SP, BSP, BJP, and Congress. BJP and its allies won 72 out of 80 seats.</p>.<p>The SP struck a pre-poll alliance with Congress for the 2017 Assembly elections. BJP and its allies romped home by a three-fourth majority.</p>.<p>The SP then experimented by aligning with its sworn adversary, the Mayawati-led BSP in the last LS polls, but to no avail.</p>.<p>And finally, in the 2022 Assembly elections, SP tied up with sub-regional caste-based outfits to register its best-ever performance in terms of vote share. But the effort fell well short of what was needed to defeat the BJP.</p>.<p><strong>Read | <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/those-who-pledged-to-invest-in-up-are-untraceable-now-akhilesh-1225975.html" target="_blank">Those who pledged to invest in UP are untraceable now: Akhilesh</a></strong></p>.<p>“2024 would be no different as people will vote to elect the PM and not the CM of UP. SP has to first make it clear as to what it is planning to offer to the people in terms of policies and programs,” claimed BJP state vice-president Vijay Bahadur Pathak.</p>.<p>At Lakhimpur Kheri, Akhilesh Yadav reiterated the party’s demand to hold a caste census. That was also his calling card when he hit the campaign trail a year and a half back.</p>.<p>To reclaim UP, the Opposition in general and SP, in particular, may have to look beyond the conventional codes of caste mobilisation. And based on the current ground realities, offer alternative social-political and economic programmes to the electorate.</p>