What does Geelani's death mean for Kashmir's separatist movement?

The death of hardline Hurriyat Conference leader Syed Ali Geelani on September 1 may have come at a time when separatists in Kashmir are at the receiving end of the BJP government’s zero-tolerance policy against separatism. However, the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan couldn’t have come at a better time than this for Pakistan.

At the moment, the influence of the separatists in Kashmir has waned to its lowest ebb in the past three decades of militancy. Geelani’s death has left a huge void that might not be easy to bridge in the near future. Nonagenarian Geelani, during his prolonged illness, had resigned from the hardline faction of the Hurriyat Conference last year which he led for almost 17 years.

A week after Geelani’s death, the Hurriyat announced his protégé Masarat Alam Bhat, as his successor, apparently at the behest of Pakistan. The 50-year-old staunch Pakistan supporter currently lodged in Tihar jail for terror funding has spent more than two decades of his life in jails. But it will take years for Bhat to reach the stature of Geelani. Under current circumstances, it looks very difficult for him to be released from jail.

Also Read | Hardline Hurriyat Conference announces Masrat Alam as Geelani’s successor

Though Bhat’s appointment has a symbolic value, Pakistan has succeeded in its mission to replace a hawk with a hawk to lead the hardline separatists’ group so that moderates like Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, who has always favoured talks with New Delhi, can be kept in a check. Bhat’s succession is a signal to the moderate separatists that Pakistan requires only hardliners with a strong anti-India stance.

Ever since the abrogation of Article 370, the moderate faction of Hurriyat led by Mirwaiz have toned down their rhetoric and maintained a stony silence.

They have not even carried out routine activities such as calling for a shutdown or protest.

But while the separatist politics in the Valley was on the decline since New Delhi stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its autonomy, a big geostrategic development in Afghanistan has put Pakistan in an advantageous position after the Taliban took over. In all likelihood, Pakistan will shift its focus back to Kashmir sooner than later. And with separatists feeling the heat in Kashmir, Pakistan would try to keep Kashmir on the boil and will try its best to resuscitate the separatist movement.

Also Read | Syed Ali Shah Geelani: A hawk among separatist leadership of Kashmir

While the Taliban’s rise in Afghanistan and ISI hobnobbing with them is certainly a concern, the security situation in Kashmir is fluid. Attacks on J&K police personnel and political workers by militants continue unabated.

In whispers, the Taliban’s victory and its impact are being discussed in anti-India constituencies in Kashmir to keep their morale high.

Syed Salahuddin, the chief of United Jihad Council (UJC), an umbrella of militant groups in Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir (PoK), called the Taliban’s victory “extraordinary and historical” in a voice message shared across social media. He reportedly said he expected the Taliban to aid Kashmiri militants.

Geelani, who was more an Islamist than a Kashmiri nationalist, was a staunch supporter of Kashmir’s merger with Pakistan. His death may have brought down the curtain on a phase of hardline separatist politics in the Valley. But a sizeable population, especially youth, is inspired by the teacher-turned-MLA-turned-separatist. It is this population that Pakistan can cash in on.

Geelani, who was a vocal supporter of militancy, was believed to be the mastermind behind civilian unrests of 2008 and 2010 in the Valley. Bhat acted as his deputy during both the unrests.

Often referred to as a hawk and a hardliner, Geelani took a public stand against India and its “occupation” after a long tryst with electoral politics in the 70s and 80s. Bhat’s views are more or less the same.

Over the years, authorities in Kashmir feared that as and when Geelani dies, his funeral could trigger a huge crisis. However, as separatist organisations and their networks remain in disarray due to relentless crackdown, police managed a quiet burial of Geelani’s body. His family was warned against making his funeral a political manifestation.

The real challenge now is to maintain the peace and not to harass common people. Much-awaited Assembly elections are likely to be held soon after the delimitation. Every few years, the cycle of violence repeats in Kashmir. It happened in 2008, 2010 and 2016. The summer of 2022 would be crucial as the government can’t bask for long in the glory of maintaining law and order after Geelani’s demise.

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