5G will transform the telecom landscape, but India will have to wait

The much-touted 5G auction has concluded and the Centre is set to garner over 1.5 lakh crore. This auction was estimated to fetch over 4.3 lakh crore, however, just before the auction, the government reduced the expectation to Rs 80,000-90,000 crore. Very high base price meant that 29 per cent of the spectrum remained unsold. As in the past, the government will conduct follow-up auctions for the unsold spectrum; hopefully, at an attractive base price.

India’s mobile telecom journey has been quite unprecedented. From the first mobile phone call back in July 1995 to the expected 5G launch, we have seen several transformations. From exorbitant call charges to ‘paisafication’ of tariff; from 12 mobile service providers to just 4 and from being a predominantly 2G (voice) market to becoming among the highest per-capita data consumers, India has come a long way.

The introduction of 5G is expected to further transform India’s digital footprint. Considering that 5G data speeds will be 5 to 10 times faster than 4G, users can expect amazing experiences. But there are several challenges to be addressed. Before we delve into them, a quick look at the global scenario for 5G.

Also Read: In 5G we trust

Global 5G uptake

Globally, 5G subscribers were expected to touch 1.3 billion by Dec 2022. However, the revised forecasts indicate that the number could be short by 300 million. This is still a significant achievement considering that it took 12 years for achieving the one billion user milestone for 3G, 4 years for 4G and it would be just about 3.5 years for 5G. If not for the Covid-19 impact, 5G uptake could have been much faster.

A recent report states that 70 countries had 5G networks as of June 2022, up from just 38 just two years back. South Korea was the first country to deploy 5G services back in 2018. By 2025, 60 per cent of South Korea’s mobile subscribers are expected to be using 5G.

5G uptake in the EU has been sluggish. A recent European Telecommunications Network Operators’ Association (ETNO) report states that Europe accounts for only 2.8 per cent of the total mobile connections although 62 per cent of the population has access to 5G. In the US, 13.4 per cent are using 5G. Even Thailand has had a sluggish 5G uptake.

Another report states that the US and China lead on the number of cities with 5G coverage, with 356 and 296 cities, respectively. The Philippines with 98 cities and South Korea with 85 are the countries in Asia among the top 10 countries.

While 5G involves significant expenditure from the telcos, an Ericsson report states that 5G ARPU (average revenue per user) can gain 34 per cent by 2030 if the telcos offer differentiated services to the consumers.

Poor mobile experience

Indians will lap up 5G connectivity if the telcos retain the tariff. India’s data tariff is amongst the lowest in the world. Price per GB (gigabyte) in India is at $0.17 per GB, while it costs between $3.85-$5.95 in Japan, the US and Canada. No wonder the ARPU of the Indian telcos is under Rs 150. The global average is between Rs 700-Rs 1000. Perhaps, low ARPU is a key reason for the poor quality we experience while using our phones.

Also Read: 5G spectrum auction: A big step toward next-gen telecom

Dropped calls continue to haunt the Indian subscribers. Government had planned to penalise telcos with poor call quality, call drops etc. No action was taken and telcos have got away with no accountability for providing poor quality of service.

Many of the challenges we face with connections (especially indoors) would continue even with 5G. The main reason is that the high frequency spectrum, also called millimetre wave (26GHz), is capable of carrying a significant amount of data, but constrained with coverage distance.

On the other hand, the efficiency is much better in the sub-GHz band (600-900MHz). But exorbitant prices meant that the telcos did not bid aggressively in the lower frequency band.

In India, 4G picked up significantly as people were able to enjoy live-streaming videos, news etc. The speeds are good enough for the current set of applications as 5G specific applications are largely absent. Subscribers may not pay higher tariff for 5G if the quality is largely 4G-like.

With 5G limited to a few patches, it is highly likely that users will be pushed back to 4G where 5G connectivity is absent (even 2G if 4G coverage is poor). In addition, availability of affordable handsets will be a deterrent for major uptake in 5G. Presently, less than 10 per cent of the smartphones in India support 5G.

A very strong fibre-optic backhaul network is required for 5G, but only 30 per cent of the mobile towers have fibre-optic connectivity. This needs to be increased to 80 per cent for a seamless 5G experience (Just as an example, South Korea has over 70 per cent fibre-optic coverage).

Sample this: India’s fibre kilometre per-capita is 0.09 compared to 1.35 in Japan and the US and 0.87 in China. Fibre-optic connectivity must be ramped up on a war footing for India to realise its 5G dreams.

Enterprise segment

The Centre’s plan for pricing the spectrum for captive non-public network (CNPN) is awaited. Most enterprises in India will be eager to get on the 5G bandwagon. Also, considering the challenges in 5G deployment for retail mobile users and the fact that enterprises are still major contributors to telcos’ revenue, it is likely that the telcos would prioritise enterprise segment for faster 5G adoption.

Summarising, for Indians to enjoy a true 5G experience, it will certainly take a few more years. Till that time, we should be happy with occasional 5G and mostly 4G.

(The writer is a columnist and ICT professional based in Bengaluru.)