A looming global food crisis

Though the Indian meteorological department has been reassuring Indians that there will be a regular monsoon, all the ambient factors indicate otherwise. April temperatures are soaring. In India’s wheat granary, Punjab, the ambient temperature is 41 degrees Celsius (daytime) and the night temperature is 23 degrees Celsius, which will lead to a huge grain loss due to shrinking and shattering of grains. This is harvest time. The other parts of India are no better.

Is the world headed for another year of food crises? All the available indicators are pointing towards it. If this happens, which is quite likely, 2023 will be the third consecutive year with a record price rise for food, especially cereal grains. During the first 22 years of this century, the world has already dealt with three major global food price hikes: in 2007–08, 2010–11, and 21021–22. This year will add to this record-breaking period of high global food prices.

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According to the World Bank’s latest Food Security Update, around four-fifths of low income countries and more than 90% of lower middle-income countries have witnessed year-on-year food price escalation in excess of 5%. The “cost of living crisis”, caused by skyrocketing food prices, is currently gripping the world to such an extent that the “Global Risk Report 2023” by the World Economic Forum (WEF) has found this to be the top most severe threat over the coming two years.

Due to a gradual switchover to the cultivation of commercial crops, the area under the cultivation of food grains has steadily decreased in the last five years by about 30%. As a consequence of increasing incomes, the consumption patterns of the population have undergone a significant change.

For almost 2022, more than 20% of the rise in food inflation since May occurred during the last 3 months, when we witnessed 30% inflation. Data from the wholesale price index (WPI) has clearly indicated that cereals and other food items have been on a rising trend since 2021.

The Union Ministry of Finance has already warned that food prices will rise in 2023 due to various reasons, with extreme weather events and the looming El Nino being the prime factors that would impact overall harvests. The World Food Programme (WFP) has forecast that 345.2 million people will be “food insecure” in 2023. This is more than double the number in 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic started. It also means that 200 million more people are food insecure in comparison to pre-pandemic levels.

What is the future?

It looks as though the last century’s achievement in curbing hunger will be undone in the current century. In the last century, the world had nearly seen the eradication of famines and witnessed the rise of a system that helped avoid extreme food scarcity through massive relief operations. The rise of democratic institutions also helped with effective responses to such dire situations. The last century also reported a drop in severe conflicts, which traditionally triggered famines. But that situation is now being replaced by pockets of global conflict. The Russia-Ukraine war is a typical example. Its adverse impact on fossil fuels and the food supply is clearly visible. Sadly, there is a looming crisis between China and Taiwan now.

The world is witnessing famines or famine-like situations, notwithstanding the developments of the past. Extreme weather events and climatic factors are replacing international wars and conflicts as the main reasons for creating famines or famine-like situations. The Russian invasion of Ukraine caused food prices to escalate in 2021–2022. The number of climate events damaging crops and displacing people also played a definitive role in escalating food prices and people’s affordability for food during the last year. Unprecedented drought spells caused the famine in the Horn of Africa. According to the WFP, 0.9 million people are already surviving in famine-like conditions right now. This population segment has escalated ten times during the last five years, pushing it into desperate survival situations.

As per the projections of the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington (IFPRI), on average, “a 5% increase in the real price of food increases the risk of wasting by 9% and severe wasting by 14%.” This, undoubtedly, will further aggravate the already existing burden of malnutrition, quite possibly, leading to mortality. This is a typical famine situation.

In the past, while the mortality rate from a famine was quite high and could be reduced to near zero, the current century might see a reversal of this pattern. The most distinguishing fact about this is that in the current century, crop damage and the concomitant price hike in food items, especially food grains, are the result of climate events. And, sadly, the victims are nearly the same, namely, the vulnerable populations of the poorest and lowest-income developing countries.

(The writer is former
professor, National Science Foundation, The Royal
Society, Belgium.)