Afghan turmoil drives India's Central Asia push

India hosts a virtual summit with the Central Asian leaders on January 27, but New Delhi's efforts need more consistency

Driven by evolving geopolitical imperatives, India is all set to give yet another push to its ties with the five 'stans' - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan – collectively known as the Central Asian Republics (CARs) when it hosts a virtual summit with the leaders of these nations on January 27.

What has also impelled New Delhi to try and step up its strategic engagement with Central Asia is the unfolding situation in Afghanistan. Its takeover by the Taliban has exacerbated both Indian and Central Asian countries' concerns about the security risks this poses to the region as radical Islamic elements gain traction.

While Omicron may have played spoilsport in New Delhi's plans to collectively host the leaders as chief guests for the Republic Day parade, the summit should afford the leaders the opportunity to at least spell out a clear roadmap for the future trajectory of India-Central Asia relations.

Also Read | Govt drops plans to host Central Asian leaders as chief guests on Republic Day in view of the Covid-19

Days ahead of the India-hosted summit, China, too, held a virtual summit with the CARs on Tuesday. Indeed, increasing Chinese footprints in the energy and mineral-rich Central Asian countries has been a cause for worry for many countries, including India.

China has been relentlessly pressing ahead with its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and pumping money into infrastructure projects in the region, with the CARs accepting the largesse with open arms. While India cannot match Chinese munificence, it announced a $1 billion Line of Credit to the CARs in 2020 for infrastructure development.

In the three decades since the CARs came into being, China has also become the region's largest trading partner. According to the Chinese government mouthpiece Global Times, trade with the Central Asian countries pegged at $460 million in 1992 is now expected to exceed $40 billion. In addition, Chinese investments in the region now exceed $14 billion, reported GT.

Even as New Delhi works to revitalise ties with a region it says is part of its 'Extended Neighbourhood', its immediate priority is Afghanistan. The CARs, three of whom share land borders with Afghanistan – Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan – are equally worried about any fall-out long-term instability in their neighbourhood will have on them. Terrorism, radicalisation and drug trafficking are expected to gain ground amid Afghanistan's descent into further chaos under the Taliban.

While Islam is the dominant religion in the CARs and all have some radical elements, they have largely managed to prevent the tentacles of terrorism from taking a strong hold within their territories. But with Afghanistan in turmoil, the CARs fear that radical elements that had a free run of the region in the early 1990s and fled to Afghanistan after a crackdown will now return in an even more virulent avatar.

This anxiety with regard to Afghanistan has found reflection in the three India-Central Asia Dialogues held thus far at the foreign minister-level since 2019. The third dialogue was held last month and saw the foreign ministers of the CARs travel to New Delhi.

It was the first dialogue after Afghanistan fell to the Taliban. Importantly for India, the expansive joint statement issued after the dialogue called for respect for Afghanistan's territorial integrity and "non-interference in its internal affairs", an oblique reference to Pakistan.

Reassuringly for New Delhi, a month prior to this, the five 'stans' had participated in the Delhi Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan along with Russia and Iran.

Indicative of the desire on the part of India and the CARs to ensure the summit is not a one-off affair, there are indications that its meetings will take formal shape in the form of a biennial meet. Also said to be on the anvil is a secretariat that will provide an institutional framework for the summit.

While the aim clearly is to re-energise ties through these mechanisms, the real test will lie in going beyond mere symbolism and ensuring decisions taken at the summit level are implemented. While India has for long boasted of historical and civilisational links with the Central Asian countries, it has not been able to channel these age-old ties into mutually beneficial relations in the three decades since the break-up of the Soviet Union.

Undeniably, intermittent efforts have been made by India to forge closer relations with the CARs. If there was the 'Connect Central Asia' policy under Congress-led UPA II government, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government too tried to give an impetus to ties with the region when Prime Minister Narendra Modi made back-to-back visits to all the 'stans' during a six-day tour of the region in 2015.

But New Delhi's outreach to these countries has lacked consistency. The lack of adequate connectivity with the land-locked CARs should not be the reason for the strategic neglect of the region. India's efforts in recent years to access Central Asia and beyond via Iran's Chabahar port, of course, have also run into trouble in view of the US sanctions. Had it taken off, it would've helped India improve trade with the CARs, which at present is a measly $2 billion.

Air connectivity, the only viable option for trade, has languished over the years. New Delhi has not been able to persuade even national carrier Air India to fly to any of these countries.

As the crow flies, the capital cities of the five CARs are not more than a two to three-hour flight away from New Delhi. Yet, no Indian carrier wants to fly these routes that normally have fully booked flights on airlines of these five countries. Hopefully, this will change soon as New Delhi makes a renewed push to engage more closely with its 'Extended Neighbourhood".

(The writer is a New Delhi-based senior journalist)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.

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