<p>The recently concluded 2023 United Nations Conference of the Parties (CoP28) in Dubai has pledged to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly, and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with science.” ‘Net zero’ refers to a scenario in which the emission <br>of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere equals their removal.</p>.<p>In the past, indiscriminate and excessive use of fossil fuels, a generic term for major fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas, mostly by developed countries (DCs) led by the US and EU bloc countries, has overwhelmingly contributed to GHGs. Surprisingly, previous CoPs failed to address this issue in their outcome documents.</p>.<p>Despite the positive message sent by CoP28 through its inclusion of fossil fuels in its outcome document, there is a lack of concrete follow-up action. Mere references to fossil fuels in the text hold no meaning without credible commitments, particularly from major polluters, backed by action plans and financial and technological support for developing countries to transition to new and renewable energy sources. Unfortunately, none of these are mentioned in the document, and major oil and gas-producing countries, including the US, have accelerated investment in expanding fossil fuel extraction.</p>.COP28, green skills, and the path forward.<p>In fact, within two days of the end of CoP28, the summit president, Sultan al Jaber, declared that his own company, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company or ADNOC, would continue to invest in fossil fuels. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) warns that producer governments’ exploration and production plans will add 69% more output than what is consistent with even a less-ambitious 2 degrees Celsius warming goal.</p>.<p>Even India, a key player in shepherding deliberations at CoP28, appears less serious about transitioning as it is heavily dependent on imports—85% in the case of crude oil and 50% in gas—to meet its consumption requirements, and most of it is sourced from OPEC besides the US. If the latter cut their production to meet climate goals, India would be adversely affected by reducing global supply and increasing prices. </p>.<p>The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) reports that in 2022, countries provided a record $1.3 trillion in subsidies for fossil fuel production and consumption systems. Without the withdrawal of these subsidies, it won’t be possible to phase out these fuels. The CoP28 declaration calls for “phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not<br>address energy poverty or <br>just transitions.”</p>.<p>However, this formulation is vague and open to multiple interpretations. For instance, the industry could justify the continuation of fossil fuel subsidies in the name of addressing energy poverty or even supporting the transition to renewable energy, citing inadequate storage capacity essential for sustainable supply from the latter.</p>.<p>Historically, coal has been a major source of GHGs. The CoP28 text calls for “accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power” while not referring to oil and gas. This omission allows developed countries to cleverly phase down coal consumption—consumption of coal in the US and EU bloc countries is expected to fall by 20% each in 2023, whereas in India and China, it will increase by 8% and 5%, respectively. India and China, together with Indonesia, account for 70% of global coal demand.</p>.<p>India depends on the use of coal for around 75% of its total power generation. Even after massive expansion in renewable source-based capacity (solar, wind, etc.), the share of coal-fired capacity will remain substantial at about 33% by 2030. This includes 78–80 GW (gigawatts) of additional coal-based capacity to be added during this period. This new capacity addition would have been in jeopardy if Indian negotiators hadn’t forced the deletion of an earlier draft text about ‘limiting new <br>coal plants’.</p>.<p>The document talks of tripling global renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency improvements in sync with the ambition to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. But it doesn’t spell out measures to achieve this.</p>.<p>According to a UN report, about $4.3 trillion per year needs to be invested in clean energy till 2030, increasing thereafter to $ 5 trillion a year till 2050, to be able to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Of this, developing countries, excluding China, would need at least $2.4 trillion a year. The offering by developed countries to developing countries is minuscule when compared to these requirements, and there is no promise of access to technologies for making the transition. In CoP 28, the developed countries got away with offering platitudes but no concrete follow-up action plan.</p>.<p><br><em>(The writer is a policy analyst)</em></p>
<p>The recently concluded 2023 United Nations Conference of the Parties (CoP28) in Dubai has pledged to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly, and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with science.” ‘Net zero’ refers to a scenario in which the emission <br>of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere equals their removal.</p>.<p>In the past, indiscriminate and excessive use of fossil fuels, a generic term for major fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas, mostly by developed countries (DCs) led by the US and EU bloc countries, has overwhelmingly contributed to GHGs. Surprisingly, previous CoPs failed to address this issue in their outcome documents.</p>.<p>Despite the positive message sent by CoP28 through its inclusion of fossil fuels in its outcome document, there is a lack of concrete follow-up action. Mere references to fossil fuels in the text hold no meaning without credible commitments, particularly from major polluters, backed by action plans and financial and technological support for developing countries to transition to new and renewable energy sources. Unfortunately, none of these are mentioned in the document, and major oil and gas-producing countries, including the US, have accelerated investment in expanding fossil fuel extraction.</p>.COP28, green skills, and the path forward.<p>In fact, within two days of the end of CoP28, the summit president, Sultan al Jaber, declared that his own company, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company or ADNOC, would continue to invest in fossil fuels. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) warns that producer governments’ exploration and production plans will add 69% more output than what is consistent with even a less-ambitious 2 degrees Celsius warming goal.</p>.<p>Even India, a key player in shepherding deliberations at CoP28, appears less serious about transitioning as it is heavily dependent on imports—85% in the case of crude oil and 50% in gas—to meet its consumption requirements, and most of it is sourced from OPEC besides the US. If the latter cut their production to meet climate goals, India would be adversely affected by reducing global supply and increasing prices. </p>.<p>The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) reports that in 2022, countries provided a record $1.3 trillion in subsidies for fossil fuel production and consumption systems. Without the withdrawal of these subsidies, it won’t be possible to phase out these fuels. The CoP28 declaration calls for “phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not<br>address energy poverty or <br>just transitions.”</p>.<p>However, this formulation is vague and open to multiple interpretations. For instance, the industry could justify the continuation of fossil fuel subsidies in the name of addressing energy poverty or even supporting the transition to renewable energy, citing inadequate storage capacity essential for sustainable supply from the latter.</p>.<p>Historically, coal has been a major source of GHGs. The CoP28 text calls for “accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power” while not referring to oil and gas. This omission allows developed countries to cleverly phase down coal consumption—consumption of coal in the US and EU bloc countries is expected to fall by 20% each in 2023, whereas in India and China, it will increase by 8% and 5%, respectively. India and China, together with Indonesia, account for 70% of global coal demand.</p>.<p>India depends on the use of coal for around 75% of its total power generation. Even after massive expansion in renewable source-based capacity (solar, wind, etc.), the share of coal-fired capacity will remain substantial at about 33% by 2030. This includes 78–80 GW (gigawatts) of additional coal-based capacity to be added during this period. This new capacity addition would have been in jeopardy if Indian negotiators hadn’t forced the deletion of an earlier draft text about ‘limiting new <br>coal plants’.</p>.<p>The document talks of tripling global renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency improvements in sync with the ambition to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. But it doesn’t spell out measures to achieve this.</p>.<p>According to a UN report, about $4.3 trillion per year needs to be invested in clean energy till 2030, increasing thereafter to $ 5 trillion a year till 2050, to be able to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Of this, developing countries, excluding China, would need at least $2.4 trillion a year. The offering by developed countries to developing countries is minuscule when compared to these requirements, and there is no promise of access to technologies for making the transition. In CoP 28, the developed countries got away with offering platitudes but no concrete follow-up action plan.</p>.<p><br><em>(The writer is a policy analyst)</em></p>