Assamese sub-nationalism a key factor once again

Index of Opposition Unity may play a part in deciding the winner

One of the unique and rather unfair characteristics of the first-past-the-post system that India inherited from its colonisers is that to win a seat, a party does not need to win the popular vote i.e secure 50% of the votes polled. Theoretically, only in a two-party system, does a candidate need to win more than 50% of the votes. In a multiparty system like India, the only requirement to clinch a seat is to get more votes than the second-largest party or the closest competitor.

Over the years, parties have split, new outfits have been floated and elections have become multi-cornered affairs. The consequence- elections are being won not by winning the popular vote but by dividing the opposition. In other words, the mantra to win elections is Divide and Rule. It is easier to win by dividing the opposition than by capturing the additional votes/trying to win the popular vote. Simply put - the more the opposition is divided, the fewer votes are needed to win.

An increasingly fragmented opposition has influenced electoral verdicts over time- helping the leading, mostly the ruling party or alliance. The division of Opposition votes has predictably given an edge to the ruling party/alliance enabling them to win lots of seats by small margins. In the first few years, it was the Congress which benefited from a large number of parties dividing the anti-Congress or opposition votes. In recent times, the BJP has gained due to a split in the opposition votes. A divided opposition thus makes it possible for the leading party to get a huge advantage in seats-a small percentage of votes helps them win a major chunk of the seats.

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The first-past-the-post-system combined with the fragmentation of the Opposition vote has resulted in seats being won by candidates who have secured less than 30 or 25% of the votes polled. The average winning-vote threshold in assembly elections has sharply declined over the years. In 78 assembly elections held in big and medium-sized states between 1952 to 1977, the average votes secured by the winning party/ alliance was 44%. This means, to win an election a party or an alliance had to win (on an average) 44% of the votes polled. Fifty years later, this number has dropped to 40%- the popular vote needed to win an assembly election has thus fallen.

The dramatic fall in the average winning-vote threshold is directly linked to the Index of Opposition Unity (IOU). To study and analyse the changing patterns of Opposition unity and disunity, Prannoy Roy and Ashok Lahiri developed the concept of IOU in the 1980s. IOU can vary from 0 to 100. It is calculated by dividing the vote (per cent) of the single largest opposition party/alliance by the sum of vote (per cent) of all Opposition parties. As IOU falls down more and more from 100, it implies an increasingly fragmented opposition.

Recent elections

Between 1952-1977, the average IOU (data analysed for 78 assembly polls) was 69. In the most recent phase (2002-2019) of India’s elections, called the fifty-fifty phase, by Prannoy Roy and Dorab Sopariwala in their book The Verdict: Decoding India’s Elections, the average IOU has fallen to 64. The state of Assam has been an outlier. The average IOU in the state during 2002-2019 was 37, way below the national average of 64.

The most significant ramification of falling IOU in recent years is that seats are now being won, not by winning the popular vote but by dividing the opposition. Between 1952-1977, 36% of the seats were won due to a low IOU i.e opposition being divided as against 64% seats which were won by winning the popular vote- getting more than 50% of the votes cast. The situation has completely changed now. More seats (55%) are now won due to a lower IOU- by ensuring the Opposition is divided than due to a high popular vote.

Yet, again the state of Assam stands out. During 2002-2019, Assam has witnessed three assembly polls-2006, 2011 and 2016. 71% of seats in these three Assam polls were won because of a lower IOU -as against the national average of 45% during the same phase. In other words, in only 29% of the seats, did the winning candidate secure more than 50% of the votes polled.

Given the historical significance of the IOU in deciding electoral verdicts in Assam, it is likely to be an important factor in the 2021 assembly polls. By stitching together a grand alliance of anti-BJP parties including the CPI, CPM, AGM, BPF, AIUDF and RJD; the Congress has ensured a higher IOU against the BJP. The coming together of opposition forces- resulting in a higher IOU gives the Congress led Mahajot a reasonably good chance of unseating the BJP government in the state.

Though the IOU against the BJP (dominant party) in this election is quite high- unlike past assembly polls in Assam, the regional front comprising of the newly floated Raijor Dal and Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) born out of the anti-CAA protests in the state may end up helping the NDA by splitting the anti-BJP votes. The repeated requests made by the Congress to the AJP and Raijor Dal to join the Mahajot to defeat the BJP did not yield any results.

Assamese sub-nationalism has always been a part and parcel of the state’s electoral politics. The AJP-Raijor Dal combine are aiming to fill the vacuum left by the Asom Gana Parishad which is now being accused of whittling down Assamese ethno-nationalism by becoming a puppet of the BJP. The regional front is therefore setting its eye on the 70-odd seats in Upper Assam and North Assam, where the Assamese speaking population is heavily concentrated.

Smart strategy

Learning from the recent assembly polls of Assam, the Congress crafted a smart strategy of cobbling together anti-BJP forces to make sure that a lower IOU did not help the BJP win a majority of seats with a lesser vote share. But despite the grand-old party’s attempts to avoid a fragmentation of the Opposition votes, the regional front of AJP-Raijor Dal is likely to hurt the Congress-led Mahajot.

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While the alliance with the AIUDF will help the Congress in avoiding a division of minority votes, on the flip side the anti-CAA votes in the Upper Assam and Barak valley are now likely to shift to the AJP-Raijor Dal combine, thus denting the prospects of the Congress.

To make matters worse for the Congress alliance, the AJP-Raijor Dal combine may even eat into a section of Congress-AIUDF’s Muslim vote-bank. In an apparent move to minimise the damage caused by the division of minority votes between the Congress alliance and the regional front, AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal recently lashed out at the newcomers, accusing them of helping the BJP.

The BJP and its ally the AGP-the once dominant regional force of Assam, have reasons to worry too. The AJP-Raijor alliance is being backed by the All Assam Students Union (AASU) and Asom Jatiytabadi Yuba Chatra Parishad (AJYCP), which spearheaded the anti-foreigner Assam agitation of 1979-85 and also played a key role in founding the AGP. Thus, the AJP-Raijor coalition may also end up denting the prospects of the NDA-the AGP in particular by eating into the AGP’s base.

In a state where the IOU has been historically low, a relatively higher IOU in this election may result in a fiercely contested poll battle. The AJP-Raijor combine is miles away from coming to power but it is likely to hurt both the NDA and the Mahajot. The alliance which is able to minimise the damage caused by the AJP-Raijor Dal may emerge victorious on May 2.

(The writer is a Mumbai-based freelance journalist)