Bahraich violence is a defining moment for Yogi Adityanath

A successful resolution of the crisis, coupled with a strong bypoll performance, would enhance Yogi Adityanath’s reputation within the party as it prepares for the 2027 UP Assembly polls.

The communal clashes during the Durga procession in Bahraich, Uttar Pradesh, have ignited a political challenge for Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, coming at a critical moment as the state prepares for crucial bypolls. As tensions rise, the incident has the potential to either bolster or undermine Adityanath's leadership, depending on how it is managed.

Coming just before the crucial bypolls for 10 Assembly seats after a June 4 Lok Sabha polls debacle for Adityanath, it is a delicate balancing act. The clashes, if spread and not controlled in time, have the potential to dent Adityanath’s image as a strict, no-nonsense administrator who has managed to deliver a ‘danga-mukt’ (riot-free) Uttar Pradesh.

If the clashes spread, UP faces the risk of further polarising society along religious lines, which would influence the outcome of the bypolls. The minority consolidation in favour of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc may worry Adityanath, as it has the potential to dent the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s poll prospects in the state. This may also have an adverse impact on his leadership.

The communal clashes also have the potential to reverse-polarise the majority community. In such a political scenario, the ‘Batege to Katoge’ narrative of Adityanath is set to strengthen his image as the new and tallest Hindutva poster boy, likely reaping political dividends for the BJP. This comes at a time when the saffron outfit is in shock and struggling to revive its political Hindutva project in UP after the Lok Sabha verdict, which showed that the Opposition’s ‘Savidhan Badal Denge’ and ‘Arakshan Khatam Kar Denge’ narrative, led by the Samajwadi Party and the Congress, worked in their favour.

The political stakes for both the BJP and Adityanath are very high, and how the government responds could shape both the immediate political landscape and the UP chief minister's future at the national stage.

The UP government's initial response was swift, with police forces deployed across Bahraich, Internet services suspended, and several arrests made. These measures aimed to bring the situation under control, but they also reflect the need for the Adityanath administration to be seen as taking a strong stand against such communal violence. His leadership is built on his image as a no-nonsense, tough administrator, particularly when it comes to maintaining law and order. His reputation has been forged through similar incidents where his government acted decisively to quell unrest. Adityanath has made his image as a leader who proudly embraces his Hindutva identity. At the same time, he has bluntly said no to minority appeasement while ensuring the fruits of development and governance reach all communities.

The Bahraich clashes, however, are more than just an administrative challenge — they are a test of political leadership. In Uttar Pradesh, where communal tensions often influence voting patterns, Adityanath’s handling of the situation will be closely scrutinised. His ability to manage this crisis could either solidify his image as a protector of Hindu interests or open him up to criticism from opposition parties, who have already begun framing the incident as a failure of governance.

The timing of these clashes, just before the bypolls, is politically significant. Communal tensions, while destructive to social harmony, often play into the hands of political leaders who galvanise their voter base by positioning themselves as defenders of their community’s interests. Adityanath and the BJP might use this tension to rally Hindu voters by presenting the clashes as an assault on their religious rights.

Adityanath has already built a strong following among this constituency, and his stance in situations of communal violence often resonates with voters who see him as someone who will take bold steps to protect them. The Bahraich violence could intensify this perception, especially if the administration is seen as acting swiftly and decisively against those responsible for the unrest. By projecting a hardline stance, Adityanath could reap political dividends for the BJP from the communal violence.

However, this strategy is not without risks. Polarising the electorate might consolidate support among core Hindu voters, but it could also deepen resentment among minority communities and invite criticism from other sections. Opposition parties, such as the Samajwadi Party and the Congress, have already accused Adityanath of negligence, pointing to the administration's failure to prevent the violence in the first place. If the perception of the BJP as a party that is fanning the flames of communalism for political gain is reinforced, the saffron party could face backlash in the long term, even if the strategy proves effective in the short run.

For Adityanath, the key to emerging from this situation politically unscathed lies in his ability to manage the communal tensions while avoiding accusations of bias. Ensuring that justice is served swiftly and fairly will be crucial in preventing further escalation of the violence. Engaging with community leaders from both sides, providing compensation for the victims, and reassuring the public of the administration's impartiality will be essential steps in restoring peace.

Moreover, transparency in the investigation is critical. With accusations already flying about police negligence and administrative failure, the government must ensure that all those responsible for the violence are held accountable, regardless of their religious affiliations. Any hint of favouritism or uneven enforcement of the law could exacerbate tensions and provide further fuel for the Opposition's criticisms.

The political ramifications of the Bahraich violence extend beyond the immediate bypolls. Adityanath’s handling of the situation will also be viewed through the lens of his growing stature within the BJP’s national hierarchy. A successful resolution of the crisis, coupled with a strong bypoll performance, would enhance his reputation as a capable leader who can manage volatile situations — an image that could bolster his influence within the party as it prepares for the 2027 UP Assembly polls and 2029 general elections.

Adityanath has long been considered a rising star within the BJP, and his appeal extends beyond Uttar Pradesh. His ability to maintain order in a communally charged state like UP, while simultaneously pushing the BJP’s Hindutva agenda, makes him a key figure in the party’s future. A win in the bypolls, especially in the wake of such a crisis, would cement his role as a dominant player in both state and national politics.

Conversely, a misstep in managing the violence could expose vulnerabilities in his leadership. Any perceived failure to control the situation or accusations of administrative bias could dent his image as a strong leader. This would not only weaken his position in UP but could also diminish his influence within the BJP's inner circle.

The Bahraich violence is a defining moment for Yogi Adityanath. It presents a complex challenge that combines law enforcement with political strategy. How he navigates this crisis will not only determine the outcome of the upcoming bypolls, but also shape his future in both state and national politics.

If handled effectively, this episode could reinforce his reputation as a decisive, strong leader, making him an even more influential figure within the BJP. However, any mismanagement could provide his opponents with the ammunition they need to challenge his leadership and erode his support base.

(Mahendra Kumar Singh is a political commentator and teaches Political Science at DDU Gorakhpur University, Uttar Pradesh. X: @MKSinghGkp.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.