BJP is failing to balance political-caste equations in Rajasthan

The BJP must now confront the reality of internal fractures and reassess its strategies to mend relationships with crucial constituencies.

The political landscape within the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Rajasthan has been shaken by the resignation of Kirori Lal Meena, a prominent tribal leader and a veteran figure in state politics, from the state Cabinet. Meena's departure is not merely the exit of another politician but signals deeper issues within the party's dynamics. As a grassroots leader with a rich history, including stints as a Rajya Sabha MP, two-term Lok Sabha MP, and six-time MLA, his influence has been extensive, particularly among tribal communities and the agricultural sector.

Holding four crucial portfolios — agriculture and horticulture, rural development, disaster management and relief, and civil defense — Meena was more than just a Cabinet minister. His exit reflects potential shifts in the BJP's relationships with these key constituencies. His departure underscores a significant challenge for the BJP in Rajasthan: balancing state-level equations of caste and region. The Meena and Gurjar communities, primarily located in eastern Rajasthan, have shown shifting loyalties, impacting electoral outcomes. 

In the general elections, the Congress capitalised on this dynamic, securing victories in Dausa, Karauli-Dholpur, Tonk-Sawai Madhopur, and Bharatpur, areas where these communities are influential. The BJP managed to retain only Alwar, thanks to Union Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav. Meena's assertion that he would quit if the BJP lost any of the seven seats assigned to him by Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlights the gravity of the situation. In the 2001 Census of India, the Meena population in Rajasthan was enumerated at 2.8-3 million, constituting approximately 7.1% of the state's total population of 56,473,122.

Rajasthan’s political landscape has witnessed a dramatic shift in recent years. In 2014, the BJP swept the state, winning all 25 Lok Sabha seats under the leadership of then Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje. The party repeated its success in 2019, winning 24 seats, with its NDA partner the RLP securing one seat. Meanwhile, the Congress, despite being in power in the state, failed to win a single seat. However, in a surprising turn of events, the Congress and the I.N.D.I.A. bloc made a remarkable comeback in the recent Lok Sabha election, winning 11 seats, while the BJP's tally was reduced to 14. This outcome marks a significant departure from the BJP's dominance in the state elections held late last year, and signals a potential shift in Rajasthan’s political winds.

Meena’s resignation is a glaring indicator of the BJP’s miscalculations following its assembly victory. The party’s decisions regarding the chief minister’s appointment, caste equation balance, and portfolio allocations have backfired. Meena’s exit is not merely a broken electoral promise; it reveals deeper political dissonance within the BJP’s state machinery.

After securing the assembly, the BJP was expected to select a chief minister who could represent Rajasthan’s complex social fabric. However, the appointment of Bhajan Lal Sharma, viewed as a compromise candidate, sparked discontent among various community factions, particularly the influential tribal and agricultural sectors that Meena represented. Sharma, a Brahmin, hails from a caste that has not historically held significant political sway in Rajasthan.

Rajasthan’s political landscape is dominated by various powerful castes and tribes, including Rajputs, Gujjars, Jats, Kshatriyas, and Meenas. Raje, a Kshatriya from Gwalior who married into the Jat Dholpur royal family, maintained a delicate balance with her connections to multiple communities. Her daughter-in-law, hailing from the Gujjar community, further bolstered this inclusive approach.

In contrast, the BJP’s recent attempts to balance caste dynamics by appointing Diya Kumari (a member of the Jaipur royal family and a Rajput) and Prem Chand Bairwa (an OBC) as deputy chief ministers failed to resonate with the broader electorate. The exclusion of a significant tribal leader like Meena from a prominent role alienated key voter bases and highlighted the party’s missteps. 

Meena’s resignation has brought renewed focus to the growing discontent among the Jat and Gujjar communities along with Meenas against the BJP. Historically, these influential groups have been strong supporters of the party. However, a series of political missteps has eroded this support. 

The Jat community’s resentment has been particularly palpable in the Shekhawati belt. Internal party conflicts and the denial of tickets to key Jat leaders, such as Rahul Kaswan, led to a significant electoral backlash. The sidelining of prominent Jat figures, coupled with the perception that the BJP is dominated by upper castes, has alienated the Jat electorate. This dissatisfaction underscores the party’s failure to manage its internal dynamics and respect the contributions of its diverse leaders.

Similarly, the Gujjar community’s shift away from the BJP has become evident. The party’s failure to address key issues such as the Agnipath scheme and farmers’ concerns over irrigation, land rights, and minimum support prices has fuelled disenchantment. This growing mistrust reflects the BJP’s inability to effectively manage caste dynamics and meet the aspirations of these critical communities.

Meena’s departure underscores the BJP’s struggle to maintain harmony among Rajasthan’s diverse social groups. His resignation, driven by discontent within the tribal and agricultural sectors, signals a potential shift in voter allegiances. The BJP must now confront the reality of internal fractures and reassess its strategies to mend relationships with these crucial constituencies.

This development serves as a wake-up call for the BJP. It highlights the need for thoughtful and inclusive decision-making that genuinely reflects the state’s diverse demographics. The BJP’s response to this challenge will not only influence its immediate political fortunes but also shape its long-term standing in Rajasthan’s complex political landscape. The party’s ability to navigate these issues and restore trust among its traditional voter bases will be critical in determining its future success in the region.

(Sayantan Ghosh teaches journalism at St Xavier's College (Autonomous), Kolkata. X: @sayantan_gh.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.