Changing ties with Bangladesh

Nothing perhaps better reflects the current chill in bilateral ties than Bangladesh’s announcement early this month of a ban on hilsa fish exports to India. The ban on this much-sought-after delicacy has ostensibly been imposed to meet Bangladesh’s domestic demand, but the timing — just weeks ahead of Durga Puja, when the demand for hilsa soars in West Bengal — suggests more beneath the surface. 

Having enjoyed a cosy relationship with the Sheikh Hasina’s government until her ouster, India now finds itself caught between a rock and a hard place. In a dramatic reversal of fortunes, New Delhi must now deal with a prickly interim government in Dhaka led by Sheikh Hasina’s bête noire, Nobel laureate Mohammed Yunus, whom she once famously called a “bloodsucker”. 

Yet, India cannot simply afford to let Bangladesh slip into China’s waiting arms. Virtually out in the cold, New Delhi knows it must make the best of a difficult situation, given its significant strategic stakes in Bangladesh. India is treading cautiously, playing a ‘wait and watch’ game even as the signals from Bangladesh’s interim government suggest it will play hardball. 

Yunus, the interim government’s chief adviser, spoke to Prime Minister Narendra Modi last month, assuring him that the security and safety of Hindus would be prioritised. Since then, New Delhi’s public outreach to Dhaka has been limited to high-commissioner-level engagements. A proposed meeting between Modi and Yunus on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, which New Delhi would do well to accept, could provide an opportunity to thaw bilateral ties.

After all, as the larger neighbour, India may need to show a big heart. It might also need to tone down its narrative of Hindus being under threat, as Muslim-majority Bangladesh could easily point to similar concerns regarding minorities in India.

Meanwhile, the United States, which had a fraught relationship with the Sheikh Hasina regime and often criticised it for human rights violations, has swiftly engaged the interim government, sending a high-level delegation to Dhaka. In an attempt to counter China’s growing influence in the region, Washington also announced a new tranche of $202 million in aid to Bangladesh. 

Cold-shouldered by the interim government, India has made efforts to reach out to the people of Bangladesh, repeatedly emphasising that their interests are foremost in its mind. However, this is unlikely to counter the strong anti-India sentiment currently prevailing in Bangladesh, in part due to New Delhi’s close ties with Sheikh Hasina, who is widely despised for her authoritarian rule during her 15-year tenure as PM.

New Delhi’s decision to give her shelter to Sheikh Hasina has further irked Dhaka. Both Yunus and Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal have said that they will seek her extradition to stand trial for alleged atrocities. If Bangladesh formally requests her extradition, New Delhi will find itself in a tight spot. Her continued presence in India, coupled with a refusal to extradite her when a formal request is made, could further strain bilateral ties.

Signs of tension are already visible. The interim government, for instance, has called for the resolution of the long-pending Teesta waters treaty, which would allocate its share of water to Bangladesh as the lower riparian state. Additionally, power supplied from the Adani Group-run Godda power plant in Jharkhand has faced scrutiny in Bangladesh over “exorbitant” rates at which electricity is being supplied amid demands to revisit the contract. 

Also troubling are the interim government’s efforts to pander to Islamists, who can stoke extremism in the neighbourhood. The deputy chief of the radical outfit Hefazat-e-Islam, Prof A F M Khalid Hossain, is an adviser for religious affairs in the interim regime. The lifting of the ban on the pro-Pakistan Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) has also led to legitimate concerns in India.

China, expectedly, has quickly embraced the JeI, dispatching its envoy in Dhaka to meet its leadership, eager as it is to make deeper inroads in Bangladesh. The China-Pakistan axis will also gain ground in the country, especially if the largest opposition party, the Pak-leaning Bangladesh National Party (BNP), comes to power. 

For now, there is no clarity on when elections for a new government will be held in Bangladesh. Amid the on-going political churn and a beleaguered economy, New Delhi is concerned about prolonged instability in its neighbourhood. 

In the long run, the interdependence between two close neighbours may help normalise ties. But it will be a new Bangladesh that India will find itself dealing with—one that will not be as accommodating of New Delhi’s interests as the Sheikh Hasina regime. A new chapter, a very challenging one, that will put to the test India’s diplomatic skills has begun.

(The writer is a senior journalist)