Disruptions, gamechangers and showstoppers

In the post-pandemic era, as international systems undergo tectonic shifts and the world gravitates towards a multipolar order, several opportunities open up for the discerning. To capitalise on this potential, both government and industry will have to identify and insulate themselves from future risks. This entails a more informed appreciation of the unconventional threats and cognitive biases that beleaguer humankind.

Black Swans, Black Jellyfish,
Black Elephants

Most stakeholders are familiar with the commonly used metaphor of the ‘Black Swan’, which describes the disproportionate effects of previously unobserved, high-impact and hard-to-predict events. Indeed, it is such rare occurrences that often grab global headlines.

There are, however, two additional metaphors worth considering -- the ‘Black Jellyfish’ and the ‘Black Elephant’. The former refers to issues that are well-known and comprehensible but turn out to be complex and uncertain in the long run, with a long tail and nasty sting at the end.

The latter represents a cross between the ‘Black Swan’ and ‘the elephant in the room’, wherein the challenges are visible to everyone, but no-one feels compelled to deal with them. In other words, they signify the blind spots that arise due to cognitive bias, powerful institutional forces, short-sightedness and failure (or unwillingness) to read signals.

While globalisation has been the most progressive force in modern history, it continues to raise several questions concerning the diffusion of wealth. With many citizens perceiving greater integration as being fraught with risk, there has been a recent spike in xenophobic, protectionist and nationalist rhetoric. Unfortunately, the institutional capacities to manage such global issues have not kept pace with the burgeoning complexities of modern society.

A failure of governance has contributed to the proliferation of unconventional threats. As observed by Maya Tudor, an Oxford scholar, the incapability of a State to meet the rising aspirations of its people in an inter-linked world, can further the rise of populism. When such populism fails, it deteriorates into mobocracies and anarchies.

Rising income inequalities, as measured by the Gini coefficient, represent another area of concern.

The escalating cost of education is equally perturbing. As higher learning becomes more expensive, and a large section of the population is deprived of its benefits, social media networks find it easier to generate echo chambers and manipulate human minds.

Therefore, the weaponisation of information through deep fakes and disinformation should be actively resisted. Otherwise, it will provide opportunities for State-and non-State actors to deter and coerce adversaries in an asymmetrical manner. More broadly, the agility and ultra-highspeed networks of interacting smart devices can be potentially exploited by malicious actors, thereby posing substantial challenges from a societal, organisational, and personal point of view.

The poisoning of Artificial Intelligence (AI) defence systems can also not be discounted. As a growing number of security companies embrace AI for anticipating and detecting cyber-attacks, black hat hackers may attempt to corrupt these defences. Even though AI capabilities help to parse signals from noise, if they fall into the hands of the wrong people, they can be leveraged to launch sophisticated assaults. Generative adversarial networks (GAN) that pitch two neural networks against one another may be deployed to determine the algorithms of such AI models.

Finally, all governments need to account for the new classes of accidents and abuses that may be spawned by ‘21st century technologies’. For the first time, the benefits of nanotechnology, robotics as well as genetic sciences are well within the reach of individuals and small-scale actors. They are no longer required to build large facilities or acquire rare raw materials to derive value from them. Knowledge alone can drive the application of such capabilities.

In other words, it is important to acknowledge that weapons of mass destruction have been replaced by knowledge-enabled mass destruction. This destructive potential is further amplified by the power of self-replication.

Predicting threat vectors

Against this backdrop, it is imperative that governments and non-partisan think-tanks undertake research that forewarns policymakers and the strategic community about predictable surprises.

We, at Synergia Foundation, for instance, had in 2008 simulated an avian flu attack to more than 300 policymakers, business leaders and academics as a way to foresee threats from potential pandemics. Eleven years later, the prognosis was proven right.

With respect to the future of biosecurity, India and the rest of the world must be prepared to deal with threats that emanate from thawing of the permafrost. As global warming continues at an unprecedented rate and parts of the planet witness record-breaking heatwaves, the earth’s ancient and forgotten pathogens, which have been trapped or preserved in the permafrost for thousands of years, may re-emerge with new vigour. It is exceedingly important to ascertain such risks and devise strategies for countering them.

By ideating about such unconventional threats and charting a roadmap for the future, a think-tank can successfully transition into a ‘do tank’.

Forging ahead

At the end of the day, the rate of change and the level of uncertainty is such that it may outpace good governance. In light of this reality, it is critical for problem-solving networks to upgrade themselves by becoming more distributed and working in concert with each other.

Global governance is no longer about individual leaders plotting their own course. Rather, it entails a collation of some of the finest and most avant-garde thinking in contemporary societies, which replaces competition with collaboration. High-performing organisations and individuals, both in the public and private sector, should strive to devise complementary solutions. The more valuable their contributions are, the greater will their influence be.

To accomplish this vision, a novel approach that places strategic adaptability at its core will be required in the days to come. Resolving the tension between foresight and inherent uncertainty is the holy grail strategy for thwarting unconventional threats. Any failure to predict such risks can trigger chain-reactions that unleash catastrophic consequences.

(The writer is president of Synergia
Foundation)