Do Manipur clashes have a Chinese angle to it?

Many North-East outfits have intrinsic links with China. Only a fool will believe that China will not exploit these security vulnerabilities in the North-East

What does China have to do with Manipur where over 95 people have been killed in the turmoil and upwards of 40,000 displaced? From the throwaway remarks of the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) Anil Chauhan in Pune on May 30, he seemed to be staking out a position at some variance with the Government of India insofar as both China and the situation in Manipur was concerned, as well as the state government’s appreciation of the unfolding situation.

Here is what the CDS has been quoted as saying: “This particular situation in Manipur has nothing to do with counter-insurgency and is primarily a clash between two ethnicities. It’s a law and order kind of situation and we are helping the state government.” The term ‘law and order’ is usually pregnant with meaning, and here it is quite negative in terms of implications for the state government in Manipur as well as home ministry in New Delhi.

Whereas Chief Minister Biren Singh labours to convey the impression that those killed in the operations are “terrorists”. The CDS’ statement comes after Home Minister Amit Shah went to Manipur to apply balm and made headlines by simply being there, in the process bringing attention to one of the lesser-known failures of the government to deal effectively with the North-East.

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Chauhan also made the case that Manipur had armed forces deployed for counter-insurgency operations. But that was before 2020. It must be noted here that both the Assam Rifles (which comes under the Union home ministry) and the Indian Army were deployed there in some force. The numbers are not readily available, but 25,000 would be a reasonable ball park figure, on the lower side. Operationally though the Assam Rifles came under the Indian Army. Those days the areas were ‘disturbed’. Those days the Indian Army functioned under the protective umbrella of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA). Then, as the CDS explains it, “Since the challenges of the northern borders were far more, we were able to withdraw the Army. Since the insurgency situation had normalised, we were able to do that…”

There you have it, the elephant in the room. It is China. This is one major strand in the Chinese connection to Manipur. Because of China's aggressive land-grabbing activities in the border areas in the north, the Indian Army had to be redeployed to prevent a further squandering of real estate to China. The CDS seems to be implying, among other things, the absence of the Indian Army has allowed for a security vacuum in Manipur, a situation which will not go unnoticed in Beijing. While we cannot underestimate the omnipresent threat China poses in the region, the communal nature of the ongoing Meitei-Kuki clashes egregiously complicates the situation.

It might have been convenient to declare normalcy and remove AFSPA in the region in bits and pieces. As such the valley in Manipur, where the bulk of the population lives seems to be AFSPA-free. Now that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government is celebrating, for some reason that has not been convincingly explained, the ninth anniversary of successes through loudhailers in every media, and Manipur is not disturbed anymore and the Chinese dragon has been nearly vanquished as per the official lore, can the Indian Army function effectively without AFSPA? Is the mere presence of the army good enough? No sensible general will deploy unless the area is officially declared disturbed. Manipur is not disturbed. Only its armouries are being looted for altruistic reasons. Its churches are probably being burnt for renovation purposes.

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Here again is Chauhan sounding vaguely hopeful: “The challenges in Manipur have not gone, they have not disappeared. It will take some time but hopefully the issue should settle down and the state government will be able to do its job. Our focus then will be back to deal with the challenges which have not yet disappeared along the northern border. That’s important for us.”

India shares a border with Myanmar of almost 1,700 kilometres, part of which goes through Manipur. Insurgency has existed in Manipur since the early Sixties, and Manipuri militants cross over to Myanmar at will and hide there. Myanmar militants come to Manipur when they want to. Ask the army personnel deployed there. Not for nothing is Manipur known as a Gateway to the East. North-East insurgents receive manifold support from the implacable and bitter northern neighbour, China.

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Many thorny North-East outfits have physical, financial, military, and other intrinsic and inextricable links in Kunming, China. Only a fool will believe that China will not exploit the larger than life strategic and security vulnerabilities in the North-East.

The CDS is clearly hinting at something. Elaborating on the BJP government's success in Manipur, Prime Minister Narendra Modi in February 2022 declared that the "BJP govt in Manipur has turned the impossible into possibility.” This seems true, but not in a good way. His foreign minister, S Jaishankar, just the other day, in a panegyric ode to himself, asserted that “Foreign policy begins on our borders and understandably, that has seen the greatest transformation.” Being economical with the truth is one thing. Being delusional is quite another. Which border is he talking about: Pakistan? China? Manipur?

(V Sudarshan, a senior journalist who writes on foreign policy, is author of Tuticorin: Adventures in Tamil Nadu’s Crime Capital.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.