A good monsoon is what the country needs

The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) detailed forecast of monsoon reaffirms the preliminary estimate it had made of a normal to above-normal rainfall in the country. The monsoon is set to hit the southern-most coast of the country. The IMD has stuck to its monsoon schedule and has reiterated that this year’s rainfall will be “above normal” and the precipitation in rain-fed areas might be in sync with its prediction for the country as a whole. That means that there will be ample rainfall in areas where agriculture is dependent on rain. Since there are more or less equal possibilities, according to the IMD, for the rain to be normal, above normal, or excessive, there is no chance of it being below normal for the country as a whole. The IMD expects the rainfall to be less than normal in some areas of North-East India, Odisha, southern Gangetic West Bengal, and Jammu and Kashmir. It also expects normal rainfall in June in southern and central India. 

Last year’s deficiency and waywardness of rains had affected agriculture and allied occupations and businesses, and badly hit rural incomes. It also had an impact on the national economy. The most important reason for the high levels of food inflation in the country is the decline in agricultural growth. The fall in rural incomes slackened demand and affected industries and businesses, including the consumer goods sector. The expected good monsoon in rain-fed areas such as Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, UP, Rajasthan and West Bengal augurs well for crops like pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals. The timely rains will also replenish water levels in the reservoirs. Water storage in all major reservoirs in the country has gone down, touching as low as 24% of the normal capacity. 

There is the need for better clarity on the temporal distribution of the rain. This is important because farmers and others in different regions need to plan their activities according to the timing and quantity of the rain that they should expect. Hopefully, there will be better predictions at the micro level in the coming weeks. The weakening of the El Nino in the early part of the monsoon and the  development of the La Nina effect later may lead to excessive rains. Authorities should also start preparations to deal with problems like excessive rains and floods. The authorities should also deal with the situation arising out of deficient rainfall in areas where the agency has said the monsoon is not likely to be strong this year. Overall, the monsoon prospects are good, but no-one can be sure of what weather and climate will bring.