El Nino and erratic monsoon: Are farmers prepared?

Govt must focus on preparedness at the village level to confront the challenges posed by these environmental phenomena

The year 2023 has witnessed an unprecedented level of discussion and media coverage surrounding El Nino. This weather phenomenon has become a topic of great interest not only in the mass media but also among government officials and the public. Most people are now familiar with what El Nino is and why it occurs, as newspapers and TV channels have extensively reported on it in recent days and weeks. El Nino is a weather phenomenon that arises when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise above normal levels. It occurs once every 2–7 years and has a significant impact on global rainfall patterns and temperatures.

In India, concerns are mounting about how El Nino might impact the monsoon in the coming months. Adequate rainfall distribution between June and September is critical for water supply, crop growth, and food production. In effect, distribution matters more than just the total rainfall during these monsoon months. El Nino is a naturally occurring pattern associated with increased heat worldwide, leading to drought in some parts of the world and heavy rainfall in others.

Also Read | July 2023 set to be world's hottest month on record

Globally, several agencies have already declared that July 3 and 4 marked the hottest days ever recorded since keeping records began. One European Agency has concluded that June 2023 was the warmest June in history. Numerous cities worldwide are grappling with extreme heat waves. The situation is expected to worsen as the summer progresses. Canada, for instance, has already experienced unprecedented warming and forest fires that have led to smoke enveloping many parts of Canada and the US, including large cities like New York and Toronto. The US itself is experiencing unprecedented heat stress, storms, and heavy rainfall events in several of its regions. During the current season of Hajj pilgrimage, thousands of pilgrims suffered heat stress, with many fatalities, as Saudi Arabia’s temperatures soared to 48 degrees Celsius. China issued its highest-level heat alert for its northern regions as Beijing experienced about 40 degrees Celsius for several days. The year has seen extreme heatwaves across various parts of Asia, with some even calling it the Asian Heatwave.

India, too, has experienced heat waves in many of its northern cities. From February to June of 2023, record-breaking temperatures scorched the country. Even Bengaluru, known for its favourable weather, witnessed one of the hottest Junes. Tragically, some regions, like Maharashtra, witnessed fatalities from heatstroke as people endured the scorching sun while waiting for an awards ceremony—13 people lost their lives. While there are disputes over the exact death toll, it is evident that heatwaves have taken a toll on human lives in other states like UP and Bihar.

The warming climate causes changes in atmospheric patterns, resulting in a weakening of the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent, making the Indian monsoon weaker and less reliable during El Nino years. Past data shows a significant correlation between El Nino and deficient Indian monsoon rainfall in recent times, leading to droughts in India during those years.

Moreover, there are concerns about how El Nino might impact GDP, food production, and food grain prices. Governments, especially the agriculture and finance ministries, closely monitor the progress and impact of El Nino. The Reserve Bank of India has based its forecasts of 5.1% inflation and 6.5% growth this year on assumptions of normal monsoon conditions. Acting on the forecasted El Nino, the Indian government has taken specific measures such as imposing stock limits on tur, urad, and wheat and implementing a cap on sugar exports until mid-2024.

The Secretary-General of the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warned recently that El Nino “will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean.” According to the WMO, there is a 90% probability of the El Nino event continuing during the second half of 2023. In India, over 60% of the cropped area is under rainfed agriculture, making it highly vulnerable to rainfall variability and droughts.

Fortunately, El Nino-linked droughts are more reliably forecast by the WMO and IMD months in advance. This early warning can help agricultural departments prepare contingency plans to adapt to impending droughts. Strategies such as Contingency Crop Planning, advanced seed production and stocking, and promoting soil moisture conservation techniques such as crop mulching can be employed to support distressed farmers.

There was a deficit in rainfall in most regions in June. However, we are currently experiencing extreme rainfall events that are causing flooding. But this does not assure good rainfall during the rest of the cropping season. El Nino could impact rain in the remaining months of the crop season. In India, generally, drought is declared much later in the cropping season, and some relief is provided, but too little and too late, rather than through advance planning.

Weather forecasts and even crop advisories are generated and disseminated through various communication channels, but they are not adequate for application at the village or farm level, and farmers rarely refer to these periodic advisories provided by IMD, ICAR, and agriculture universities. There is a need for more localised advisories that can be adopted at the village level. Evidence is emerging to show that global warming and climate change are likely to lead to more intense and frequent El Nino events, leading to extreme heatwaves, droughts, and floods in different regions. In 2023, El Nino has received unprecedented coverage in mass media, government circles, and farmer circles. The central and state governments will hopefully take advance notice, prepare contingency plans, and assist particularly rainfed farmers, who dominate Indian agriculture and are most vulnerable to climatic vagaries and change.

(The writer is a retired professor of the Indian Institute of Science and author of the UN Intergovernmental Panel Report on Climate Change)