Farm laws repeal: Why the agitation is set to continue

Farmers unlikely to call off protest without withdrawal of cases, halting amendments to Electricity Act and a promise on an MSP law

It had to happen sooner or later. It happened later than sooner, almost on the eve of the first anniversary of the farmers' agitation and after the death of over 700 farmers, including four mowed down under the wheels of three cars in Lakhimpur Kheri last month.

After remaining silent for nearly a year on the issue, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced this morning that the Centre was withdrawing the three reform-oriented farm laws that farmers said favoured the corporate sector and hit their livelihood. The government's decision is undoubtedly influenced by the harsh ground reality in the election-bound five states of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur. The protesting farmers under the banner of the Samyukta Kisan Morcha had decided to oppose the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) in each constituency of these states.

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The BJP's caste calculations and attempts at polarisation ahead of polls have fallen short in the face of the avalanche of farmers' agitation. Reading the writing on the wall, the government decided to step back. The PM had mocked in Parliament leaders of peoples' movements as perpetual "andolankaris"; his government has had to step back on three occasions in the face of popular agitations.

The government, in its first tenure, withdrew the amendments it had proposed by ordinances to the Land Acquisition Act, 2013, that sought to remove the two crucial provisions of seeking the consent of those to be displaced and the social impact assessment of the project for which land needed to be acquired. The Bill was sent for legislative scrutiny to a joint parliamentary committee where unanimous consent emerged on retaining the two clauses.

The second time it had to go back on its declaration for maintaining an all-India National Registry of Indian Citizens, or NRC, after massive agitations all over the country with its hub at Shaheen Bagh in Delhi. Addressing a rally at the Ramlila Maidan in Delhi, PM Modi said, "I want to tell the 130 crore people of India that ever since my government came to power in 2014...There has been no discussion on NRC anywhere... we only had to implement it in Assam to follow the Supreme Court directives."

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And now, after rebuffing the agitating farmers for almost a year, the government has had to listen to their voice and has withdrawn the three controversial farm laws it had brought into being through ordinances during the duration of the Covid-19 lockdown last year.

It may be recalled that Parliament passed the three farm Bills amidst pandemonium in the Rajya Sabha. The Supreme Court had given a stay on their implementation and set up a committee to hold consultations and report back. The panel has since submitted its report to the apex court in confidentiality. But the report has not been made public.

This was no ordinary protest. It was an outburst of various sectors of agriculture from years of suffering, especially after the liberalisation of the economy in the 1990s. The 85 per cent of small, marginal and semi-medium farmers, the nearly 50 per cent of labour, many of whom had suffered as migrants during the Covid-19 pandemic and the invisible workforce of women, all came out to protest under the umbrella of the Samyukta Kisan Morcha.

More than anything else, what rattled the establishment was the recent mammoth gathering at the Kisan Mahapanchayat at Muzzaffarnagar in Uttar Pradesh, the bastion of the Bhartiya Kisan Union, a significant constituent of the Samyukta Kisan Morcha.

It is unlikely that just the repeal of the three farm laws will satisfy farmers. The farmers are adamant on a government decision to make mandatory the payment of minimum support price (MSP) for 25 notified commodities. It is well known that farmers get short-changed even within the mandis on payment of MSP, be it on the grounds their produce not meeting the Fair Average Quality criterion or on any other pretext.

The agitating farmers, having come this far braving cold, heat, hail and rain, are unlikely to withdraw their demand for halting the proposed amendments to the Electricity Act, which seeks to privatise distribution. If approved, the amended Act will have a bearing on the cost of electricity per unit affecting irrigation costs for farmers.

Above all, the farmer leaders will push for the withdrawal of all cases against their brethren during the agitation period in various states. Only then will they return to their homes. Till then, Delhi is likely to remain under siege as it had been since November 26 last year.

The Assembly elections early next year in Uttar Pradesh are seen as a mini referendum on the BJP government in the state and the Centre. The vast crowds that Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav is drawing and the early exit polls that predict BJP down by several seats have shaken the BJP. The SP's alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Dal will make this combine invincible in western UP. Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi has also dug her heels in and made farm laws and women security her key campaign planks in the state. Her going it alone, though, may divide non-BJP votes to the advantage of the saffron party.

Be that as it may, Modi has tried to knock down the farmers' canvassing against his party by withdrawing the farm laws. He has also tried to take the wind out of the sails of the opposition parties that had built their campaign around the farmers' agitation.

(Gargi Parsai is a senior journalist based in New Delhi)