Food security for all: Time to think long-term

While the current stocks are still above the required buffer stock norms, there are concerns that there might be a crisis if there is no proper planning and management

The government has just announced another three-month extension to the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY), and it will now be operational until December 2022. The press statement released states that this would help people through the festival season. While this is a welcome decision given that the poor of the country are reeling under the twin impacts of unemployment and inflation, it would be more meaningful if it is also accompanied by more long-term strategies to ensure that the public distribution system (PDS) continues to provide support towards ensuring food security.

There are at least four issues that need to be addressed.

First, it is now clear that the economic distress being faced by those in the informal sector is not improving immediately. The recovery in the GDP has been K-shaped, with the incomes of the rich being restored and even increasing, while from wage data we can see the wage rates for casual workers in both agriculture and non-agriculture sectors in rural areas are stagnant and even lower in real terms.

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Therefore, rather than announcing extensions for three months at a time, it would be better if the government continues this scheme for a longer period so that the system can also be prepared both fiscally as well as in terms of the availability of foodgrains.

Second, while the continuation of PMGKAY will definitely contribute to the food security of those who have ration cards, there are a large number of people in need who do not have ration cards under the National Food Security Act (NFSA). It has been estimated that to cover 67 per cent of the population as promised in the NFSA, 100 million additional people need to be included in the ration lists if the current population is considered. With the indefinite delay in conducting the Census, the government continues to use 2011 population figures to make its allocations.

Even the Supreme Court has now intervened and asked the government to look at using the official projected population estimates to arrive at the number of ration cards. This is an urgent need and would allow many excluded persons and households to be included.

Third, while the stock position of foodgrains in the FCI godowns was very comfortable in 2020 when the PMGKAY started, the situation has altered now. While the current stocks are still above the required buffer stock norms, there are some concerns that there might be a crisis if there is no proper planning and management.

As of September 2022, including the estimated rice from unmilled paddy and millets, stocks are just over 60 million tonnes, while the buffer norm for October is about 30 million tonnes. The usual requirements for NFSA and other requirements are about 60 million tonnes per year, and added to this PMGKAY would require about 12 million tonnes for the coming three months and more if it is extended further.

While paddy procurement season begins soon and stocks will be replenished, there are some concerns regarding this being less than previous years because the production is expected to be lower. Paddy production this year has been affected because of drought in some parts of the country, as well as the delay in monsoons and rice dwarf virus affecting productivity in some areas.

Last year, the paddy procurement was of 59.2 million tonnes. If this level is maintained, the government can continue with the PMGKAY.

However, given apprehensions regarding procurement as well as going by the experience with wheat earlier this year, it is clear that the government will need to keep a close watch on the emerging situation of prices as well as production and take necessary steps to ensure adequate procurement. With the wheat production being lower than what was estimated, along with high global prices for wheat, the procurement in this season was less than half of what it was last year.

While the estimated production of wheat this year is only lower by about 3 million tonnes compared to last year, procurement fell from 43 million tonnes to 19 million tonnes. The government seemed to have been caught unawares with wheat exports being announced one day only to introduce a wheat ban the next day. The PDS was affected with wheat being replaced by rice in a number of states that are primarily wheat-consuming.

This time, the government does seem to understand that there could be a problem in rice availability. It has already announced some restrictions on rice exports. However, this may not be enough from the point of view of ensuring that PDS is expanded and PMGKAY is continued.

In this situation of reduced production and inflation in food prices, farmers will need to be incentivised to sell to the government, and this can be done by announcing a bonus on the MSP. Food security must be the primary objective of the government and all steps should be taken to ensure that people are not faced with hunger.

While this might increase the fiscal burden, as many economists have argued, it is not something that is unaffordable. Rather, there needs to be as much of a focus on raising adequate revenues by taxing the rich.

Finally, a neglected area in the context of food security in India is dietary diversity.

While the PDS contributes to providing some cereal security, from the point of view of ensuring nutrition, it is also important to improve people’s consumption of other food items such as pulses and edible oil.

These crops also need attention from the point of view of achieving self-sufficiency. One way to meet these twin objectives would be to expand procurement of these items and introduce them in the PDS. By doing this, we can move towards a more comprehensive PDS that addresses the nutritional needs of the population.

(Dipa Sinha teaches Economics at Dr B R Ambedkar University, Delhi)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH