From villain to victim. And then what?

The Iranian attack on Israel has taken the pressure off Netanyahu. Now, he can bargain between retaliating against Tehran or invading Rafah

Last Saturday’s attack, which was successfully blocked by a unique alliance of Western powers, Arab States and Israel, came at a time of tremendous pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who has been repeatedly accused of using disproportionate force against the two million Palestinians of the Gaza Strip.

Israel has once again been transformed from villain to victim, thanks to its most hated enemies who rule from Iran. The mullahs in Tehran who ordered the unprecedented firing of more than 300 drones and missiles against Israel have revived the international credibility of the Jewish State.

When Israel went to war against the Iranian-backed Hamas militia last October, it enjoyed unqualified backing and sympathy from an international community that condemned the sheer brutality of the earlier Hamas-led assault resulting in 1,200 Israelis killed and thousands of others suffering physical and psychological injuries.

Israeli retaliation followed almost immediately with a ground, air and sea assault against key Hamas targets in Gaza. According to the Hamas-run Ministry of Health in Gaza, more than 33,000 Palestinians have been killed following the Israeli attack. These massive numbers, along with images of dead and wounded Palestinians, lost Israel sympathy, with even its strongest ally, the United States, questioning the purpose of the war and whether Israel’s goals of releasing its hostages and destroying Hamas could ever be achieved.

Subsequently, and for the first time since the start of the Gaza war, the US abstained in a key UN Security Council vote calling for an immediate ceasefire. Until that critical point, Washington had refused to support any resolution that was critical of Israel. When the US abstained at the UN, it was seen as yet another sign of the deepening crisis in bilateral ties. 

Days before the Iranian attack, the Biden administration warned Netanyahu against invading the southern Gaza city of Rafah, the last Hamas stronghold that is home to an estimated six Hamas battalions, as well as to another million Palestinian civilians who were forced to flee from other beleaguered parts of Gaza.

It is election year for US President Biden, and his advisers are worried that a new humanitarian crisis could cost him the votes of both liberal and Arab-American members of his own Democratic Party. Their fears of still more images of dying Palestinian women and children could be critical for a President who has been dubbed ‘Joe genocide’ for the total support he extended for Israel’s Gaza war.

Stepped up calls for an “immediate ceasefire” by Biden and other Western leaders compelled Netanyahu to change his tactics, forcing him to allow hundreds of lorries stuffed with medical and food supplies to enter Gaza every day. Of course, Netanyahu and his allies were not just responding to pressure from Biden. They could see for themselves how Israel was losing worldwide support and a vital international network of sympathy that has backed the Jewish State since it was founded in 1948. 

Daily street protests in Western capitals further undermined Israel’s standing, adding to its global isolation. It was this pressure and isolation that forced Netanyahu to repeatedly postpone his plan for invading the southern half of Gaza. He is all too aware that without international support, he cannot possibly send his troops into Rafah, the main city of southern Gaza and an entry point into Egypt.

Pressure from within Israel has also been mounting, with mass demonstrations -- some of them turning violent -- calling for new elections to rid the country of Netanyahu once and for all. Their argument is that Netanyahu has failed on all counts. It was under his watch, after all, that Hamas was able to invade the country and take hostages. The demonstrators argue that the release of hostages at any price should be the government’s first priority and Netanyahu himself is reluctant because of what would happen once the war ends.

At the very least, what the Israeli Prime Minister faces after the hostages are released and the war comes to an end is a resumption of the corruption trial that could see him sent to prison.

Iran’s attack has been a blessing for Netanyahu, not just at an international level but also at home. Almost as if by a miracle, the anti-Netanyahu demonstrations have come to an end. As world leaders condemn Iran, Netanyahu now feels he has the green light to do whatever he pleases in Gaza. He knows all too well that his options against Iran are limited and an all-out war is just not possible without the backing of key supporters in key countries like the US, UK, France and Germany.

In return for holding back against Iran, the Israeli Prime Minister wants a free hand to accelerate the war against Hamas, even if it means invading Rafah. For its part, Hamas has played into Netanyahu’s hands by rejecting the latest ceasefire proposals, including the release of 40 hostages and a six-week ceasefire or truce. Hamas continues to insist that any deal should include a full Israeli military withdrawal, a total end to the war, and a commitment by the international community to help in rebuilding Gaza.

Hamas’ obstinacy is cited by Netanyahu as yet more proof that the Palestinian group is not serious about reaching an acceptable deal. Israeli strategists are convinced that Hamas is still counting on an impending all-out war with Iran that will force Israel to end its Gaza operations and focus instead on a wider regional conflict.

All indications so far confirm Israel’s determination to retaliate against Iran. No precise date for the retaliation has been made available, although security analysts in Jerusalem say a swift response is needed for deterrence and to preserve Israel’s “national dignity”. The US has led calls for Israel to hold back, while reluctantly accepting Israel’s right to retaliate and extract a price from Iran’s mullahs.

Meanwhile, all pressure has eased for Netanyahu to refrain from invading Rafah. His new orders are for the Israeli army to prepare thousands of tents for the Rafah refugees who are expected to relocate ahead of the expected invasion. Yet, this is no guarantee that Israel will continue to enjoy its current role as the victim of neighbouring aggressors. Fresh images of suffering Palestinians will inevitably see a switch from victim to villain once again.

(The writer is a senior journalist based in London)