Geostrategic implications of China-Qatar energy deal

While the world remains fixated on the FIFA World Cup in Qatar, a major gas deal was recently inked between the gulf monarchy and China. Qatar, one of the world's tiniest countries in the Middle East, is the world's largest Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exporter. China is the second largest energy consumer in the world and relies on imports for energy security. Keeping in mind the uncertainties about the supply and gas prices in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China has sought to ensure stability through the long-term agreement with Qatar.

China signed a 27-year deal for LNG supply with the tiny gulf monarchy, probably the longest in terms of duration in the history of LNG. It is the second deal between China and a major Persian Gulf energy player. In 2020, China and Iran entered into a 25-year contract worth $400 billion. The agreement provided an impetus for China and Iran to deepen their strategic partnership. It helped that both share an anti-American strategic outlook.

The China-Qatar gas deal is not just about energy. It signifies the growing strategic partnership between China and Qatar. Their geopolitical orientation and interests seemed to converge on Afghanistan, Iran and the larger regional security questions in West Asia.

Also Read | War in Ukraine likely to speed up countries' move into clean energy, IEA says

Strategic convergence: Afghanistan and Iran

Both countries are key players in the geopolitics of Afghanistan and were among the earliest who had opened channels with the Taliban. Qatar has hosted a Taliban political office in Doha since 2013, and China, through Pakistan, was in regular touch with the Taliban. Both argued for negotiating with the Taliban for peace in Afghanistan.

After the American withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, Qatar was officially designated as the representative of American interests in Afghanistan. Qatar and Turkey have also been in talks with the Taliban for operating airports. Like all major players, Qatar is playing all sides in Afghanistan. China, too had a diplomatic presence on the ground in Afghanistan even when foreign missions closed their offices and left Kabul.

Also Read | Over a third of UK pubs and restaurants cut hours to save on energy bills

Relations with Iran remain the second point of convergence between Qatar and China. Despite the intense pressure and the blockade (imposed in 2017 and lifted in 2021) from Sunni Gulf powers, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt, Qatar refused to downgrade ties with Iran. (Qatar is Iran's maritime neighbour, and the two countries share the world's largest gas field.) China, too refused to go along with the US on the question of sanctions after the Trump Administration withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and launched a campaign of 'maximum pressure'. Despite American warnings, China continued to purchase Iranian oil.

Chinese military base in the Persian Gulf

China is rapidly expanding its naval presence in the northern Indian Ocean. The Persian Gulf features prominently in the Chinese ambitions to acquire a military foothold in the region. Last November, it was reported that China was engaging the UAE for a military base at the Khalifa port in the Gulf. However, the work was halted under American pressure, and the UAE has not allowed China to establish a military base yet.

In the future, the possibility of a Chinese military base in the Gulf remains real. Qatar may perhaps be one of the strongest contenders. It already hosts a Turkish military base and, as we saw, has not been shy about allowing the Taliban to establish a political office. These moves demonstrate a willingness to make bold and perhaps defiant strategic choices. Seen in this light, a Chinese base in Qatar is not a far-fetched prospect.

Potentially, it is a rich Djibouti in the making. Like Djibouti, Qatar is a small state in terms of geography and population (about 3 million). It is located in a crowded geopolitical setting with competing for regional and global players seeking to enhance their influence. Just like Djibouti, it is not averse to hosting foreign military bases. The long-term gas deal between China and Qatar provides a sound rationale for China to expand its regional economic and military presence.

The Gulf is already in a state of flux for the last decade with the intense Saudi Arabia-Iran rivalry, the signing of the Abraham Accords between Israel and the Gulf countries like the UAE and Bahrain, and the emergence of new strategic groupings like Israel, India, the UAE and the US (I2-U2). The strategic re-alignments that are taking shape in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine are visible across the world including in West Asia.

For India, Qatar's growing strategic ties, first with Turkey and now with China, present a challenge. During the FIFA World Cup, Qatar is hosting Zakir Naik, a controversial preacher charged in India with terror and money laundering charges. Qatari support for Islamist political groups is also a challenge as radical Islamist tendencies take root in southern India. In this context, the strategic implications of the China-Qatar energy deal need to be watched.

(Sankalp Gurjar is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal Academy of Higher Education)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.