Here is why Kashmir's Gupkar alliance has failed

Mehbooba Mufti is again playing the separatist card to regain public support after most key leaders in her party leaving for Altaf Bukhari-led Apni Party

The People's Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), a conglomerate of political parties that had come together to restore Jammu and Kashmir's special status, has been on shaky ground ever since its formation in October 2020.

After the alliance came into existence, the PAGD leaders said their priority was to struggle to restore Article 370 and not contest elections. But in November 2021, it decided to contest the District Development Council (DDC) polls jointly but did not give any reason for its changed stand.

In a jolt to the PAGD, on January 19 this year, Sajjad Lone-led People's Conference (PC) party exited the alliance. It cited the fielding of proxy candidates during the DDC polls as a reason. He described it as "a breach of trust between the partners."

The National Conference (NC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), CPI (M), Awami National Conference (ANC) and People's Movement (PM) are the remaining constituents of the alliance. Earlier, the Congress, PC and incarcerated Engineer Rasheed-led Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) were also part of the alliance.

Read | PAGD adopts resolution to restore J&K’s special status

"The PAGD has a diversity of ideologies, policies and individual opinions. Before joining the alliance, parties like the NC and PDP were fighting elections against each other," says Kashmir based political scientist Noor Ahmad Baba. He says this makes it impossible to keep the PAGD flock together and on the same page.

The NC was not in favour of forming the PAGD as it didn't want to give a fresh lease of life to the already broken PDP. The PDP was "politically dead" following its alliance with the BJP in the J&K's last elected government before the central rule was imposed in June 2018.

The NC leaders argue their party has been taken for a ride, and party interests are trumping the alliance's interests.

The PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti, according to the NC, had undermined the collective fight for J&K by pursuing a hardline politics "geared to resurrect her political career". For example, Mehbooba Mufti's statement last year that she wouldn't pick up the Indian flag. The NC did not endorse her recent statement asking the Centre to take a lesson out of Afghanistan where the Taliban seized power and made the US flee.

On June 24, ahead of the all-party meeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi chaired in New Delhi, Farooq Abdullah also distanced himself from Mufti's statement on New Delhi resuming talks with Pakistan. "We are concerned only with our country," Abdullah said, rebutting Mufti.

There is a method to Mufti's statements. She knows she has nothing to lose as most of the key leaders in her party have left and joined the Altaf Bukhari-led Apni Party. Many in the valley, including the PAGD constituents, understand that Mufti is again playing the separatist card to regain the public support she lost after forming the government with the BJP in 2015.

Read | J&K delimitation is part of agenda to further disempower people: Mehbooba Mufti

Mufti built her political career by mourning the killings of Kashmir's militants at the hands of security forces. She would go and meet the families of slain militants, console their families and be recognised as someone who "cared" for the Kashmiri people and their larger political aspirations.

People in the Kashmir Valley say she used the separatist sentiment to acquire votes. Then, she changed colours and sided with the BJP to form a coalition government, which many had then described as a "marriage of inconvenience" and an "unholy alliance".

For the PDP, the revocation of Article 370 was a blessing in disguise. It gave the PDP an issue. The NC suffered the most as the party was expected to win the next round of the impending Assembly polls. The PDP's decision to form a government with the BJP had given an edge to the NC. If Article 370 was not revoked and Assembly elections took place on schedule, the NC would have won most of the seats in J&K, believe political observers.

Consequently, during the last DDC elections, the PAGD bagged 110 seats. The NC led the way by winning 67 of these, while the PDP only managed to win 27 seats.

"Had we not formed or joined this PAGD, we would have won all ten districts in Kashmir and four more in Jammu. And our relations with the Centre and the BJP wouldn't have turned sour'," news agency IANS quoted a senior NC leader and a former minister as saying.

Many in Kashmir, including NC dissident Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, argue that the PAGD has turned into an alliance of election preparations instead of fighting for what was "snatched" on August 5, 2019.

Mehdi said that the PAGD had lost its way. "So far, I have not seen any political or legal action from the PAGD leadership to fight for the restoration of Article 370. The alliance has lost public support, and people do not even take it seriously."

In July this year, the PDP stayed away from meeting with the Delimitation Commission. It even termed it "meaningless". On the other hand, a five-member NC delegation met the commission and submitted a memorandum.

According to Kashmir based historian Professor Siddiq Wahid, the PAGD leadership has no clear plan. "The PAGD leaders initially sat under one umbrella to fight for the restoration of Article 370, but later they could not unite," Wahid said.

Professor Wahid also admitted the lack of support for the PAGD on the ground. "The parties in the PAGD had some support before abrogation of Article 370. But now it seems they have lost much of their support, mostly in the valley."

For example, after the all-party meeting with PM Modi in New Delhi, the PAGD spokesperson, CPI (M) leader, Mohammed Yousuf Tarigami, admitted that the leaders had expectations from the meeting in Delhi but returned empty-handed.

Evidently, the PAGD leaders trying to unite under one umbrella to fight for the restoration of Article 370 have started to disintegrate within a short span of time.

(The writer is a journalist based in Jammu and Kashmir)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.

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